Convective Weather Discussion UK

[Supacell]

Didn't see or hear any thunderstorms today but as I was travelling along the M1 I could see a huge cb and anvil to my east - probably as far away as Notts/Lincs border. This was around 7pm, so not sure if it was a distant storm or just a well developed shower. Storm or not it was nice to see my first CB of the season.

Heres to a good storm season in 2011

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just been on TWO and seen that someone else from Crewe has reported rotation on the storm that passed through here earlier........I'm glad I saw this because I thought it was my eyes deceiving me earlier so I didn't mention it.

[Evening thunder]

Had some nice skyscapes today compared to most of the winter, nice to see this type of day again. Though there was just moderate showers here in the afternoon with heavier ones missing as they often do. There was a bit of a gust-front like formation that looked like a heavy shower but it started drizzle/fine dropped rain! then went to a brief moderate shower.

Edited April 3, 2011 by Stormmad26

[Wilxy]

Great day today with lots going on had about 3 sharp showers 2 which had hail mixed, might of missed a storm by about 5-6miles to my south earlier when lightning strikes were being picked up around Somerset.

[DubWeatherAddict]

Great day today with lots going on had about 3 sharp showers 2 which had hail mixed, might of missed a storm by about 5-6miles to my south earlier when lightning strikes were being picked up around Somerset.

Sorry for the shake folks!, was on the iphone while also looking about!

Edited April 3, 2011 by DubWeatherAddict

[Coast]

its rubbish in the southeast nothing

Well we were never due to get any!

Morning all, nice to see a bit of action in this thread yesterday. Just a quick round up from me of today's potential:

Storm Forecast

Valid: Mon 04 Apr 2011 06:00 to Tue 05 Apr 2011 06:00 UTC

Issued: Sun 03 Apr 2011 16:42

Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK

A level 1 was issued for northern Ireland and Scotland mainly for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS

Numerous shortwave troughs move across western and northwestern Europe and lead to unsettled conditions. High pressure is building over central Europe while an upper cut-off low is present over the western Atlas mountains. Another cut-off over Turkey and the eastern Mediterranean should be associated with some thunderstorm activity as low-end instability is in place. Cold air convection may develop over S Scandinavia during the day. Later in the period, the British Isles will be affected by some showers and thunderstorms which are associated with a strong low pressure system south of Iceland.

DISCUSSION

...N Ireland, Scotland...

The cold front of a strong low pressure system should reach the British Isles in the late evening hours. Some few hundred J/kg CAPE should be present and besides strong forcing from the upper trough, very intense 0-1 km and 0-3 km shear is forecast. Given 30 - 35 m/s background winds at 700 hPa, severe wind gusts in excess of 25 m/s are likely to occur, locally even more than 32 m/s. Enhanced 300 - 500 m²/s² SRH3 combined with strong LL shear may suggest a tornado threat as well. As the gradient wind is also rather strong and the convective contribution to the gust intensity is probably not that high, a threat level 1 is issued in this situation

The interesting one:

http://www.irlweather.com/wxnsdisplay.php

Keep your eyes peeled for us later Stuart!

[Flipflop]

Enjoyed watching this mate. good show.

Early chance to test my equipment, so i left my camera clicking away towards Birmingham this afternoon

The resulting timelapse

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xOx2GPymKso

[Stuart]

Thanks Coast I will keep my eyes open

[Coast]

Well absolutely nothing on the lightning detectors anywhere around the UK!

[Stuart]

I dont think there be anything now

[Coast]

I dont think there be anything now

Have you got the storm shield turned up to maximum again?

[Stuart]

yes coast and dont go away tell may or june

[Arnie Pie]

One day I'll start making time lapses on days of substantial convective activity from Barr Beacon. That way when you're timelapsing from the south of the city and I'm timelapsing from the north, we'll be able to capture two sides of the same shower/storm! Good idea, huh lol.

Edited April 5, 2011 by windypants

[Coast]

Going to be settled for a while, time to polish up your cameras, sat-navs and lightning detectors ready for the big season!

[Richard McCarthy]

No Supercells Today It's Just Settled unless the showers we had last week come back, We might get the one coming from Morroco and spain possibly the pyrynees if we are lucky enough to get them.

[Stuart]

it still look Quite Coast but there maybe a risk next week some were and my lightning detector is all reday on for the big season

[Stormyking]

A long shot, perhaps (well, yes, it is), but the latest model output from the GFS would suggest the potential for an isolated thunderstorm or two ahead of the cold front across parts of the south-east during Sunday. The main question mark is concerning how much CINH there'll be due to the still fairly strong ridge to our south. Simply put, if there's sufficient height falls, together with the likelihood of good surface heating and decent enough low-level moisture, there's a chance (albeit small).

I've noticed this too, cape and LI look ok as well for it, wonder if could be a bit further more west if it came off

18z rolling out any minute so lets see if it still suggests the risk of an Isolated Thunderstorm or 2 for the South East

[Coast]

Well Eastbourne might just be the place to be!

[Stuart]

O good Luck Coast

Edited April 8, 2011 by Stuart

[Coast]

O good Luck Coast

I'm not holding my breath Stu, but you have to hope for any little opportunity these days!

[Paul Sherman]

Now I dont usually frequent this thread until something looks interesting but Sunday is really catching my eye, good agreement from GFS Over the last 3 days sees an incresing risk of something firing between 13z and 19z Sunday from Central Southern England across the SE Of England and East Anglia, looks to be diurnally driven as the risk wanes at Sunset. Cape is actually increasing (Which is a rarity for the UK)

One to watch, after that GFS Progging the current Settled weather will be a thing of the past later next week and on towards Easter with plenty of active weather for a change.

Paul S

[Stuart]

I see no opportunitys here for storms next few days or in to next week

[Nick F]

Now I dont usually frequent this thread until something looks interesting but Sunday is really catching my eye, good agreement from GFS Over the last 3 days sees an incresing risk of something firing between 13z and 19z Sunday from Central Southern England across the SE Of England and East Anglia, looks to be diurnally driven as the risk wanes at Sunset. Cape is actually increasing (Which is a rarity for the UK)

Some inter-run variability still though from GFS. 06z shifts the emphasis of the instability further west across SW England, E Wales and W Midlands for the afternoon, all depends, i think, on the timing of the upper trough and weak front moving through from the west:

Hopefully the weather may revert to a more showery pattern later next week and beyond, as we see more of an Atlantic influence take over with some showery Pm incursions.

[Paul Sherman]

Wow

That 06z Run has certainly shifted everything West by 100 Miles, Not seen Lightning in SE Essex since 2009 :lol: I missed the start of June's Plume event last year being away Dont quite know what we need to do to get even a Storm in the SE Now, it is getting a tad ridiculous, April's about 20 years ago would have at least 4 or 5 Sunshine and Convective Shower days.

[knocker]

Some inter-run variability still though from GFS. 06z shifts the emphasis of the instability further west across SW England, E Wales and W Midlands for the afternoon, all depends, i think, on the timing of the upper trough and weak front moving through from the west:

Does this apply to the Royal Duchy as I wouldn't have thought it indicated so from your posted chart unless perhaps slightly earlier?