Wales - Regional Weather Discussion

[J10]

This is a very interesting situation, I cannot recall having such low thicknesses on a westerly flow. around 525dam. 805HPA temps are above -5c which makes the situation so difficult to call.

The showers are also likely to be heavy which always helps when looking for snow.

Met Office also seems confident so that helps.

[TonyH]

Most of us in for a chilly, very windy day tomorrow, blustery showers of rain, hail and some snow over the high ground above about 250m. Severe gale gusts and a possibility of minor damage in places. Hard to be any more specific really.

Wind and rain has eased here, the isobars wider behind the warm front, very mild at 10c now. Worst of the rain should clear the east soon after midnight.

[jo200199]

Most of us in for a chilly, very windy day tomorrow, blustery showers of rain, hail and some snow over the high ground above about 250m. Severe gale gusts and a possibility of minor damage in places. Hard to be any more specific preally.

Wind and rain has eased here, the isobars wider behind the warm front, very mild at 10c now. Worst of the rain should clear the east soon after midnight.

Thankyou very much for taking the time to reply Tony :-) Rain seems to have eased here in the last half hour and haven't had any noteable wind. Time to hit the hay I think, goodnight all x

[ourson]

It is rather perplexing that the MetO have a weather warning for snow covering Wales. As dubious as I am, I can;t help but think... what do they know that we don't?

NOTHING!!

Fel arfer mae METO yn cuddio'u tynnau.

METO as usual are coverering their butts.

Edited December 12, 2011 by ourson

[keithlucky]

This is a very interesting situation, I cannot recall having such low thicknesses on a westerly flow. around 525dam. 805HPA temps are above -5c which makes the situation so difficult to call.

The showers are also likely to be heavy which always helps when looking for snow.

Met Office also seems confident so that helps.

Do you think Jackone their a possibility of seeing thunder snow? very unstable cold air interacting with warm sea temperatures.

Edited December 12, 2011 by Snowmadsam

[ourson]

Brothers and sisters, we need to act together.

There is a statistically-proven strong correlation between numbers of members on Wales' regional thread and the severity of the winter weather. I am currently studying for a PhD in meteorological science and would like to use this forum as a basis for my thesis. I have noticed over the last few years that the more of us that are on line at any given time, the more wintery the weather. i would go so far as to suggest that the number of members on line is in direct proportion to the depth of the snow in any given area.

Can I suggest therefore, in order to prove my theory, that we all agree to log on to netweather (Wales discussion) tomorrow at 7pm. The snow will surely follow.

Ourson

[Snowmadsam]

Most of us in for a chilly, very windy day tomorrow, blustery showers of rain, hail and some snow over the high ground above about 250m. Severe gale gusts and a possibility of minor damage in places. Hard to be any more specific really.

Wind and rain has eased here, the isobars wider behind the warm front, very mild at 10c now. Worst of the rain should clear the east soon after midnight.

Met has got down snow 100m and above...and im 100m fingers crossed

Do you think Jackone their a possibility of seeing thunder snow? very unstable cold air interacting with warm sea temperatures.

Pembs Dangler would also come in handy...

Edited December 12, 2011 by Snowmadsam

[Scarlet_Snow]

Met has got down snow 100m and above...and im 100m fingers crossed

Pembs Dangler would also come in handy...

Think you need a NW airflow for a pemb dangler....could be wrong though

[keithlucky]

Think you need a NW airflow for a pemb dangler....could be wrong though

Good possibility of seeing a streamer on FrIday Saturday when we get a N West flow and better snow chances fingers crossed.

[swales]

Do you think Jackone their a possibility of seeing thunder snow? very unstable cold air interacting with warm sea temperatures.

Well if you look at the Brecon Beacons forecast from the MetO they say:

Thunderstorms Medium Some heavier snow showers may turn thundery.

Edited December 12, 2011 by shaunwales

[J10]

Met has got down snow 100m and above...and im 100m fingers crossed

Pembs Dangler would also come in handy...

Winds are Westerly, no chance at all of a Pembrokeshire Dangler.

[Gorath]

NOTHING!!

Fel arfer mae METO yn cuddio'u tynnau.

METO as usual are coverering their butts.

cuddio eu tinnau? na, dwi'm yn meddwl. Ma'n amlwg fod ganddyn nhw ganlyniadau hollol wahanol i be sydd ar gael ar Netweather yn dod allan o'i modelau.

[J10]

It is rather perplexing that the MetO have a weather warning for snow covering Wales. As dubious as I am, I can;t help but think... what do they know that we don't?

The Met Office have a lot more information that we are not privy to.

cuddio eu tinnau? na, dwi'm yn meddwl. Ma'n amlwg fod ganddyn nhw ganlyniadau hollol wahanol i be sydd ar gael ar Netweather yn dod allan o'i modelau.

Os gwelech yn dda, Dwedwch popeth yn Saesneg ac Cymraeg.

[swales]

At the moment I just can't see temps dropping enough for places like my location... although you can see on xcweather that temps are starting to fall in western/north western Ireland after the cold front has passed. Looks like they're currently around 4-5c there.

10.4c here now, lots of rain, will be glad if it clears.

[Gorath]

The Met Office have a lot more information that we are not privy to.

Os gwelech yn dda, Dwedwch popeth yn Saesneg ac Cymraeg.

Sure thing, sorry.

I was just saying that I doubt that the MetO are just covering their backsides. It's become apparent in the last fortnight that their models definitely show something that those (at least freely) availably on Netweather do not.

Whether they're more accurate remains to be seen, of course.

[Marcus_surfer]

It's a Wet and windy here tonight with gales up to 60mph on the Mumbles.

I think someone could get a surprise tomorrow in any of the heavier showers with maybe seeing one or two flakes, indeed higher ground is likely to see some wintry stuff, i wouldn't say any large amounts of lying snow are likely, not sure why the metoffice are saying this.

Id say little or no accumulation on lower ground in heavier showers and slight accumulations on higher ground (above 150m). Indeed it's hit and miss with showers, so some will miss out. Could be an icy one tomorrow night if the winds drop low enough.

[WalsallWeather]

Hello, new to the forum.

I'm an absolute novice but I am a little confused by how sure the Met Office seem to be, what with our weather warning for snow.. Away from the wind it's actually a very mild night and I just can't see that changing..

Oh also, we've had so much rain here! The culvert next to the house is overflowing and started to flood the road until, what seems, the worst of the rain was over.

Would love to see some snow but just can't see it, unless the Met Office know something we don't!

[andymusic]

Hello, new to the forum.

I'm an absolute novice but I am a little confused by how sure the Met Office seem to be, what with our weather warning for snow.. Away from the wind it's actually a very mild night and I just can't see that changing..

Oh also, we've had so much rain here! The culvert next to the house is overflowing and started to flood the road until, what seems, the worst of the rain was over.

Would love to see some snow but just can't see it, unless the Met Office know something we don't!

winds will be changing to a colder pm air westerly direction into the early hours and then will slowly drag in -5 uppers into tomorrow night

latest nae for snow for tomorrow afternoon

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=24&ZOOM=1&ARCHIV=0&PANEL=0&LOOP=0&INFO=0&WMO=

Edited December 12, 2011 by andymusic

[thetipster]

hows this chart work

[thetipster]

looks touch n go for south wales 06

[swales]

hows this chart work

What do you mean? are you asking someone to explain that chart to you? :S

Well from what I can see it shows you the different temperatures and wind depending on how high in the atmosphere you go

[thetipster]

mid wales is at 5w on the bottomof the chart

shows 850 hpa -4

900 hpa 0 freezing level

925 hpa 2c

950 hpa 2c

975 hpa 2c

1000 hpa 3c

so convert 900 hpa to meters=900m

so if u att is 700 mthe ppn has to

fall through 200m of 2c

it can be worked out

[J10]

It's a Wet and windy here tonight with gales up to 60mph on the Mumbles.

I think someone could get a surprise tomorrow in any of the heavier showers with maybe seeing one or two flakes, indeed higher ground is likely to see some wintry stuff, i wouldn't say any large amounts of lying snow are likely, not sure why the metoffice are saying this.

Id say little or no accumulation on lower ground in heavier showers and slight accumulations on higher ground (above 150m). Indeed it's hit and miss with showers, so some will miss out. Could be an icy one tomorrow night if the winds drop low enough.

It would be nice to see a few snowflakes, and I'd settled for that. Is that Hayley Williams in the picture?

[swales]

mid wales is at 5w on the bottomof the chart

shows 850 hpa -4

900 hpa 0 freezing level

925 hpa 2c

950 hpa 2c

975 hpa 2c

1000 hpa 3c

so convert 900 hpa to meters=900m

so if u att is 700 mthe ppn has to

fall through 200m of 2c

it can be worked out

Oh I see, thank you.

Also @ JACKONE I believe that is Hayley in Marcus's avatar.

[Marcus_surfer]

It would be nice to see a few snowflakes, and I'd settled for that. Is that Hayley Williams in the picture?

Oh I see, thank you.

Also @ JACKONE I believe that is Hayley in Marcus's avatar.

Yeah although Ellie Goulding is sometimes my avatar too