Summer Forecast - Hot & Dry - Shades Of 1976

[weather12]

You are joking right?

I'd hardly call it vague, when Stuart has covered many of the reasons behind the forecast all illustrated with data + charts and period breakdowns of what to expect when. Or am I not reading the same forecast?

http://www.netweathe...-forecast;sess=

What happened to netweather's long range forecast for core summer heat expected in June?

This seems to have dissapeared in the new breakdown?

Well I'm a member of the public and I know not to trust them. I may be a member on here but anyone who regularly goes in the model thread will testify, I know nothing about forecasts or model watching.

To be honest, I've yet to meet any one who takes any forecast as gospel, whether that be long term or daily, the general public know and accept the weather will do what it wants to do and all forecasts are just a general idea of what to expect, not set in stone predictions.

Dont tell my clients that!

[Summer Sun]

What happened to netweather's long range forecast for core summer heat expected in June?

This seems to have dissapeared in the new breakdown?

They have explained clearly enough as to why it changed, and what the future months may have in store.

[weather12]

They have explained clearly enough as to why it changed, and what the future months may have in store.

Is that an admission the first month of netweather's long range forecast is wrong?

[rob48]

Well I'm a member of the public and I know not to trust them. I may be a member on here but anyone who regularly goes in the model thread will testify, I know nothing about forecasts or model watching.

To be honest, I've yet to meet any one who takes any forecast as gospel, whether that be long term or daily, the general public know and accept the weather will do what it wants to do and all forecasts are just a general idea of what to expect, not set in stone predictions.

You've not yet come across Gavin D's posts I take it?

[Harry]

Is that an admission the first month of netweather's long range forecast is wrong?

Ahem with all due respect its the 7th of June, 23 more days to go and the 62 days after that of the 'summer' remaining!

I wouldn't count chickens just yet.

[weather12]

Ahem with all due respect its the 7th of June, 23 more days to go and the 62 days after that of the 'summer' remaining!

I wouldn't count chickens just yet.

That's why i used 'is' rather than 'was' ;-)

I only mentioned June, not the rest of Summer.

[AderynCoch]

So what if it is wrong? The important thing is to analyse why it has gone wrong and try to learn from the mistakes.

[weather12]

So what if it is wrong? The important thing is to analyse why it has gone wrong and try to learn from the mistakes.

Well i'd rather it'd be right than wrong...

It's just more evidence towards the guess work theory!

I am pleased in that new report it mentions experimental forecasts etc etc... that's a start!

[Summer Sun]

Well i'd rather it'd be right than wrong...

It's just more evidence towards the guess work theory!

I am pleased in that new report it mentions experimental forecasts etc etc... that's a start!

I'm sure a lot of us would prefer it to be right, but i'd rather it be wrong in the beginning of June than say July and August, at least now we still have 3 months of summer left? Only trouble is the Longer nights will start coming back.

Edited June 7, 2011 by Gavin D

[jethro]

What happened to netweather's long range forecast for core summer heat expected in June?

This seems to have dissapeared in the new breakdown?

Dont tell my clients that!

I apologise now if I've missed it (only infrequently visit model thread) but you speak as though you too are a forecaster - are you?

I'll explain my interest in the weather - I'm a professional gardener so general ideas are fairly important to me. Have you produced a summer forecast on here? If you have can you please point me in the right direction to find it, if not, may I ask what you predict the general patterns will be in SW England for the next couple of months? Of particular interest to me is the expected rainfall - irrigation of newly planted beds/lawns is vital if we're not expecting adequate rain. Are we in for a couple of months of showery weather or do you foresee dry and hot?

[weather12]

I apologise now if I've missed it (only infrequently visit model thread) but you speak as though you too are a forecaster - are you?

I'll explain my interest in the weather - I'm a professional gardener so general ideas are fairly important to me. Have you produced a summer forecast on here? If you have can you please point me in the right direction to find it, if not, may I ask what you predict the general patterns will be in SW England for the next couple of months? Of particular interest to me is the expected rainfall - irrigation of newly planted beds/lawns is vital if we're not expecting adequate rain. Are we in for a couple of months of showery weather or do you foresee dry and hot?

Hi,

I am indeed a forecaster (despite the doubters!).

Unfortunately, i cant really help in terms of a general forecast for the next few months. I dont believe it is possible to make such predictions with any degree of accuracy.

I think it would be safe to say we'll see a few settled spells this Summer. Maybe some high 20C's or early 30C's peak heat. That's the most you'll get out of me guys in terms of a prediction :-p

[jethro]

Hi,

I am indeed a forecaster (despite the doubters!).

Unfortunately, i cant really help in terms of a general forecast for the next few months. I dont believe it is possible to make such predictions with any degree of accuracy.

I think it would be safe to say we'll see a few settled spells this Summer. Maybe some high 20C's or early 30C's peak heat. That's the most you'll get out of me guys in terms of a prediction :-p

So how far out would you forecast? I'm not being funny but the more clues about expected weather I can get, the better for me. How about the next week or two or do you restrict your forecasts to a couple of days?

I'm in the middle of establishing a large, formal vegetable garden for a client - I've designed the garden to include Pleached Lime hedges, I need 15 of them and they're £1500 each - planting time and thus ordering and dispatch timings are totally dependent upon expected weather.

I need help here.....

[rob48]

I'm sure a lot of us would prefer it to be right, but i'd rather it be wrong in the beginning of June than say July and August, at least now we still have 3 months of summer left? Only trouble is the Longer nights will start coming back.

I don't understand how this argument can stand up.

In a forecast for a three-monthly period the projected conditions for the third month must be dependent upon events of the second month. Similarly, the expected conditions for the second month are wholly dependent upon what takes place in the first.

As it now seems to be acknowledged that the first part is wrong, with a correction issued in the first week, by definition the forecast is now wrong.

[weather12]

I don't understand how this argument can stand up.

In a forecast for a three-monthly period the projected conditions for the third month must be dependent upon events of the second month. Similarly, the expected conditions for the second month are wholly dependent upon what takes place in the first.

As it now seems to be acknowledged that the first part is wrong, with a correction issued in the first week, by definition the forecast is now wrong.

Finally, one person joins the fight against long rangers! :-)

[AderynCoch]

Not really - he simply argued that getting the first bit of the forecast wrong screws up the rest of it, not that long-range forecasting in itself is useless.

[DAVID SNOW]

Finally, one person joins the fight against long rangers! :-)

Oh come on, he was great, and dont forget Tonto.

[baggie1]

Forecasting another '76 is the kiss of death in my opinion. Also the weather always balances itself so we are due a whole shed load of rain soon.

[ANYWEATHER]

If Anyone wants to Know What I think for the Summer Please Click on the link Below for my Website and Look for The Summer Forecast "A mixed One"

[UV-RAY]

Finally, one person joins the fight against long rangers! :-)

It's not a case of being against, LRF is fraught with difficulties and people just love to knock them. I take my hat off to anyone forecasting one, especially GP who puts more detail into one paragraph than most on here post in a lifetime. Personally I feel he's made the wrong call, SST profiles have changed dramatically since GP's forecast. It's still early days so lets wait until another few weeks before we put the nails in the coffin Edited June 7, 2011 by Seven of Nine

[johnholmes]

Hi all

Rather than bore those who do not wish to read my attempt to get some kind of constructive dialogue going with Weather 12 I’ve put it in a pdf format. To mushy and any others who may want to read it but are unable to open the file please pm me and I’ll try and send it via our pm system.

jh

weather 12 actual reply 7 june 11.pdf

[Jack Wales]

Hi all

Rather than bore those who do not wish to read my attempt to get some kind of constructive dialogue going with Weather 12 I’ve put it in a pdf format. To mushy and any others who may want to read it but are unable to open the file please pm me and I’ll try and send it via our pm system.

jh

weather 12 actual reply 7 june 11.pdf

John,

Don't take it to heart mate, he's obviously a wind up merchant or a Bill Farkin type character (remember him from the beeb forum!!) who just craves the attention he is now getting. I suspect his forecasting credentials are probably non existent, hence his reluctance or incapability to enter into reasoned discussion.

Edited June 7, 2011 by Jack Wales

[johnholmes]

thanks Jack

I realise that is a probability but I hope its not the case and he will make a constructive response either in here or via pm. If it is pm then I'll respect any requests for privacy.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Well I think JH sums it up pretty well.

I am no forecaster and fully respect those who are on here, even when they are wrong. At the end of the day meteorology is a science and without experimentation (short/long range forecasting) and the analysis and conclusions that can then be drawn after the forecast period has passed our knowledge would not advance.

In order to make a useful contribution then please use some of your knowledge weather 12. Make a forecast, share your knowledge and help us who are here to learn. Don't just criticise those who put hard effort into their passion for the benefit of all of us on the forum.

[chionomaniac]

Hi all

Rather than bore those who do not wish to read my attempt to get some kind of constructive dialogue going with Weather 12 I’ve put it in a pdf format. To mushy and any others who may want to read it but are unable to open the file please pm me and I’ll try and send it via our pm system.

jh

weather 12 actual reply 7 june 11.pdf

John,

I really hope that you didn't spend your precious time writing this when you had other things to do. I have to say that if wx12 is actually a forecaster then any forecast he delivers will not be one that I wish to read.

He may not believe in lrf's but I have to say that I believe any lrf than anything that he chooses to say!

[Gavin P]

I think the big mistake for Netweather and Glacier Point was using 1976 to compare to the expected conditions this summer. 1976 is The Daddy of summers. It would be like using the 1963 analogue in a winter forecast. It can only ever really end in disappointment.

Edited June 8, 2011 by Gavin P