Summer Forecast - Hot & Dry - Shades Of 1976

[Paul]

Netweather Summer Forecast 2011: Hot & Dry - Shades of 1976

Forecast summary here:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=summer-forecast;sess=

[Coast]

Well great news for some, but not for the gardeners or water companies I guess.

I won't be needing my 1976 cardie then?

[Derp Patrol]

Yes fantastic news for us. It has looked likely for a while now with the la nina fizzing out and it's about time we had a good summer - statistically speaking we are probably due a 1976 type summer (2006 wasn't a whole summer event)

[Stuart]

hot and dry summer that what i like to hear :drinks:

[Alex]

Big big big news and relates well to what GP has been pushing all along! I wonder how long it'll take time for this pattern to develop, it's starting to show some signs!

[valledym]

Netweather Summer Forecast 2011: Hot & Dry - Shades of 1976

Forecast summary here:

http://www.netweathe...-forecast;sess=

Wow, that's a bold statement! Good luck, really hope you're right.

Should i pack plenty of suncream for my trip to Cornwall on June 5th or is this hot spell due to kick in later on???

[Guest]

Well great news for some, but not for the gardeners or water companies I guess.

I won't be needing my 1976 cardie then?

Well great news for some, but not for the gardeners or water companies I guess.

I won't be needing my 1976 cardie then?

[cheeky_monkey]

They are predicting a hot dry summer here in Western Canada too..well in my location.

[Stormyking]

BRING IT ON!!!!!!!

Good luck Net weather really hope you are right about this, about time we had a proper summer

[Bottesford]

Looks awesome - fingers, toes and everything else crossed!

Not so good for farmers but great for those of us that enjoy heat & sunshine!

[Isolated Frost]

PLEASE! Yes yes yes for this!

[Gavin P]

Catastrophic for British agriculture and anybody that needs to buy food and doesn't have a large budget.

Great for the tourist industry.

You pays your money you take your choice.

Cheers GP.

Edited May 17, 2011 by Gavin P

[conor123]

Excellent forecast, would be lovely for it to come true, im certainly hoping for a warm sunny June, hot and thundery July and then a changeable August this year but as long as theres no mudane slate grey westerlys like July 2010, August 2008 and the past two weeks have plagued us with it will be a big improvement on the last few summers.

[Cheshire Freeze]

A bold call. Obviously GP is confident about the teleconnections as there is no middle ground or fence sitting in this forecast. Best of luck with the forecast; maybe it will come off and maybe it won't, only time will tell on this one. Though at the moment the signs are certainly there for a warm summer. I also agree that I think that the peak of the summer weather will be pre August; I can see it going downhill quickly after that.

[95 Degrees]

Does put a smile to my face seeing this forecast but I am still a tad cautious espically after being dissapointed the last 4 summers so will keep my expectations low.

1 question I need to ask though, for you veterans on this forum, when was the last time NetWeather predicted a hot summer?

Edited May 17, 2011 by BrightInBrighton

[Summer Sun]

Bring it on i say!

After the worst winter we've just had in decades we deserve this, glad I booked my first UK Holiday for 4 years in Great Yarmouth at the end June question is how hot will it be?

[Coast]

Here's a comparison for you young 'uns !!! :lol:

http://www.sundaymercury.net/news/midlands-news/2011/05/09/are-the-midlands-set-for-another-summer-of-drought-like-1976-66331-28651964/

Staines Reservoir, 1976:

In the midst of a relatively severe drought, temperatures reached 80°F (26.7°C) every single day between 22nd June and 16th July and reached a staggering 90°F (32.2°C) every single day for 15 consecutive days including 5 days at 95°F (35°C) – PHEW!

People had their water turned off to conserve supplies, hosepipe bans were introduced across the country and in some areas firemen were told not to extinguish forest fires in order to save diminishing water reserves.

When it came to rain in the summer of 1976 only 50 per cent of the usual average fell between June and August. Many areas experienced no rain at all during the latter part of July and most of August.â€

http://4evrmanchester.wordpress.com/2010/05/24/phew-%E2%80%98what-a-scorcher%E2%80%99-remembering-the-famous-summer-of-76/

[Nick L]

Looks like we could have some quite serious problems come the end of Summer then =/

[Gavin P]

GP, I know you don't usually like looking ahead to the season beyond, but do you see any relief to the drought in the autumn? 1976 had a very wet autumn for instance. 1995 also had a wet September and November.

Edited May 17, 2011 by Gavin P

[summer blizzard]

GP, I know you don't usually like looking ahead to the season beyond, but do you see any relief to the drought in the autumn? 1976 had a very wet autumn for instance. 1995 also had a wet September and November.

Not GP, but QBO data indicates a strengthening -QBO during Autumn and into winter which generally correlates to a wetter Autumn.

[geoffw]

will this hot and dry weather affect northern ireland?

[AderynCoch]

That's what I call sticking one's neck out! The headline screams PWS or WA but it has the nous, methodology and transparency to back it up.

The obvious concern is that there has already been a significant lack of rainfall in many areas. I'd be lying if I said I didn't want this forecast to come off (if it's even 10% accurate, I'll be happy), but it hints at a major drought crisis in southeastern areas if decent rains don't arrive soon. Even those of us who have had more rain in recent weeks would likely experience drought problems.

[Weather-history]

- statistically speaking we are probably due a 1976 type summer (2006 wasn't a whole summer event)

Not really, we are statistically more overdue a cool summer and when I mean a cool summer, I mean of sub 15C for the CET. There hasn't been one since 1993 whilst there have been 3 summers since then over 17C for the CET. So we are not really overdue that type of summer, heatwise.

Rainfall wise there is a more of a case.

Edited May 17, 2011 by Mr_Data

[feb1991blizzard]

I have to say im stunned, its all gone quiet over here. Worried about Moths spiders wasps, flys, sunburn stickyness and high blood pressure. A comprimise i would settle for now would be june, first half of july hot, as long as it gets cooler second half of july and a cool showery aug. If we have to have uncomfortable weather at all, i would rather just get it out the way in the first half of summer.

[Alex]

Mr data heres one for u, what CET do we need to beat June July and August? Thanks I'n advance!