Summer Forecast - Hot & Dry - Shades Of 1976

[Marcus_surfer]

Wow, is this April fools? Shocking news, hope it is correct.

[Paul]

I've split out the tourism based stuff to a new thread dedicated to the subject

[rob48]

I can't believe some people are arguing that hot, sunny weather doesn't have a positive impact on British tourism and as a result local economies... (if that is what people are actually arguing, I may have miss-interpreted what is being said)

If anyone can provide data that holiday-makers throughout the Northern hemisphere change their destination plans because we're having nice weather I'll concede that I'm wrong.

As regards the benefit to local economies from home-grown tourism: if people are spending more in beer-gardens and air-museums I'd counter that, unless they are fabulously wealthy, they spend less elsewhere, like DIY outlets, there's only so much in the pot, so what's the long term benefit and to whom?

Paul:

Could you move this as well please?

Sorry to be a nuisance.

Edited May 17, 2011 by rob48

[snowlover2009]

I like the sound of this, it is extremely rare to get these sort of summer forecasts, net weather have been near the mark with these summer forecasts, for instance, the past 4 summers, they never called for any really decent summers which they were correct on, last summer was not too bad mind you, best out of the last 4.

It makes me wonder,we need to get a wet autumn, but if we don't then, I do think the chances are, winter will once again be similar to last year and the 2 years before, which were very dry and cold and that would be very serious. So we really need a wet autumn, besides I would love one, can't beat a good old stormy october autumn day.

[Gavin P]

I have to warn you guys, Piers is apparently going for a very hot/dry summer starting with a heatwave this weekend. In my experiance thats usually the kiss of death for any forecast.

Edited May 17, 2011 by Gavin P

[davehsug]

I have to warn you guys, Piers is apparently going for a very hot/dry summer starting with a heatwave this weekend. In my experiance thats usually the kiss of death for any forecast.

D'oh

[Jack Wales]

Thanks GP for yet another fascinating forecast which is backed up by your research and simply explained. I commend your boldness as you’re certainly not sitting on the fence!

My one concern is that with the jet leaving the USA at such a southerly latitude and with potential for a –ve AO, could this nudge the trough more towards the UK. Or an even worse case scenario, is there potential for a Greenland high, thus diverting the jet directly over the UK?

I’m not doubting the integrity of your forecast for a minute but merely playing devils advocate and perhaps seeking to allay my own anxieties!

Totally agree bottesford, i lost many plants last winter some which have been around many years and have had to relay the lawn because of the very cold winter, not many people moaned about it but it cost me a whole lot of money when you start adding in heating bills etc!

Bring on a hot dry summer, the majority will be happier and it'll be great to get out and about more!

Agreed as I lost my lavender and rosemary due to the severe cold last December, however a drought would also put other plant varieties under strain. I therefore hope that GP's forecast is only 90% accurate in order to allow for a few days of heavy rain!!

Edited May 17, 2011 by Jack Wales

[SP1986]

I'd like to thank and congratulate on the summer forecast, I think it's very well put together, well documented and brave.

Personally I'm sceptical (and by means no direspect whatsoever), I still think this summer, will turn out to be pretty average overall in terms of rainfall and temperatures, I suspect cooler than average in the western parts and wetter, however I cannot provide the excellent research and backing up that is evident in the forecast. I'd like to wish good luck with the forecast and I and many others are hoping it will come off.

[Paul]

Article in the Telegraph today about the forecast:

http://www.telegraph...orecasters.html

[snow raven]

Thank you GP for this forecast - although I am probably one of a minority on here who wants it to be more a dry and pleasant heat summer, and not hot!

Call me a bah humbug, but I hate it when temperatures become unbearable for weeks and weeks on end. You can't sleep at night, travelling too and from work on the train is awful, and it just makes me miserable! Temperatures of between 22 and 25 degrees would suit me.

And I dont know about anyone else on here, but although the past Winter was brilliant at first, with snow, ice etc, after about 3 weeks of the bitter cold, I had had enough!

[SteveB]

Certainly looking forward to the hot sunny part with thundery sultry conditions.

The lack of rain is a concern though.

[Milhouse]

Amazing stuff. Now we need it to come into fruition, which is always the hard part. If we do get a summer similar to 1976 this year would already cement itself as my all time favourite year.

[Schnee]

Must admit that despite my deep loathing of heat, i'm looking forward to getting some dramatic pictures of Yorkshire Reservoirs and feeder reservoirs.

For my 1000'th post, here's Lindley Wood Reservoir taken by a friend, check the comments as there's pictures on how quick it empties.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/samhirst6359/4827399551/in/set-72157624962180657/

An article on it and how it works:

http://www.britishdams.org/2004conf/synopses/claydon.pdf

Edited May 18, 2011 by Stelmer

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think that, as a general rule, hot summers are more welcomed the further north you go. Most of Scotland, plus northern England north of Yorkshire, has average July maxima of 18-20C and sunshine of 160-190 hours, and while eastern coastal areas are generally the driest and sunniest they also see a lot of haar and cold winds off the North Sea, so in many summers residents struggle to get ideal weather for outdoor activities. Thus Summer 1995 (which was more remarkable in Scotland than 1976, being the sunniest on record and having an August that surpassed even July 2006 for heat and sunshine in many parts of Scotland) is generally fondly remembered in those regions.

In contrast I doubt I would find a summer like 1976 or 1995 particularly comfortable in central London with the high pollution levels and urban heat island effect, particularly if I had to commute in on the tube every day. During the late June/early July 2010 heatwave, it was notable that while Norwich was as warm as London by day, it was a few degrees cooler by night, which made a big difference. In London an average July is warm enough for most people (average maximum 23C), although sunshine is still relatively low (just over 210 hours in the suburbs, less than 200 in central London) compared with the near Continent.

I must admit that the idea of a settled and modestly warm summer wouldn't excite me as much, not so much because of temperature but rather because of my association of it with the August 1998 type pattern of Azores High ridging into the south, absence of convective rainfall, dry sunny weather in the south and dry cloudy weather in the westerly flow on the ridges' northern flank.

Edited May 18, 2011 by Thundery wintry showers

[Nights King]

I really hope this summer forecast is at least near to the mark as ity will make a nice change from the usual wet weather we get.

As for "dustbowl conditions" which papers have been banging on about I have never once in my 16 years of living here in west country seen the grass even turn brown.

Day off work yesterday and it rained all day!

[rob48]

"dustbowl conditions":

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/agriculture/crops/8519608/Crops-drying-a-slow-death.html

stunted crops and dusty land.

Summer hasn't even started yet.

[Terminal Moraine]

It's certainly a bold forecast from G.P who, as far as I'm concerned, is one of the most respected contributors to this forum. I applaud it, not because it tells me what I want to hear ( it certainly doesn't ! ) but because it's backed up with sound reason.

Weather forecasting over any time scale is not an exact science and over the span of a whole season is pushing the outer boundaries of what is realistically possible but G.P has, in the past, delivered some remarkable accuracy with regard to general patterns and their influence on our weather.

However let's not lose sight of the fact that is a forecast and not a statement of fact. If it goes wrong let's give him the space to examine his method and explain why rather than jumping in with hasty criticism and dismissing him as a failed forecaster.

Bear in mind, no matter what happens during the summer, no-one else on here could have done any better other than by chance.

[Alex]

If it does come off which I hope, one wonders why GP isn't working for the met office doing their medium and long term forecasts, the met office are pathetically too scared to do any seasonal forecasts saying that the 16-30 day is pretty bad most of the time and seems too model based without any science behind it!

Hats off to GP regardless of what happens!

[Thundery wintry showers]

An excellent post by Terminal Moraine. In some ways I fear for Stewart because of his strong track record so far and the fact that this summer forecast is the sort of scenario that many people want to hear- it means that if the summer doesn't turn out as predicted, there could be uproar (and it wouldn't require a major shift in the projected setup for a warm but changeable pattern to arise with the trough further east than expected, or the change to cooler changeable conditions to set in earlier in the summer than expected). Like a PC game reviewer recently noted in a review of Portal 2 with regards Valve Software's record (where the reviewer similarly feared for Valve), when an individual or company gets an excellent reputation due to a string of successes, it can result in an unreasonably harsh reaction when a failure occurs later on. Not Stewart's fault by any means, but a word of caution for those who might otherwise be too quick to "jump" if the summer turns out significantly less hot, dry and/or sunny than forecast.

Regarding the Met Office's long-range forecasts, they had a pretty good record with many of their earlier seasonal forecasts (particularly the winter 2005/06 one) but thanks to some unsuccessful later ones this seems to have been forgotten. This highlights the hit-and-miss nature of LRFs, hence my words of caution- Stewart's methods have, so far, proved to be pretty accurate most of the time but there have been occasions when the teleconnections have thrown up something unexpected and de-railed the forecast, as happened with the prediction for a milder February 2010 following an accurate call for a cold December/January.

[Alex]

An excellent post by Terminal Moraine. In some ways I fear for Stewart because of his strong track record so far and the fact that this summer forecast is the sort of scenario that many people want to hear- it means that if the summer doesn't turn out as predicted, there could be uproar (and it wouldn't require a major shift in the projected setup for a warm but changeable pattern to arise with the trough further east than expected, or the change to cooler changeable conditions to set in earlier in the summer than expected). Like a PC game reviewer recently noted in a review of Portal 2 with regards Valve Software's record (where the reviewer similarly feared for Valve), when an individual or company gets an excellent reputation due to a string of successes, it can result in an unreasonably harsh reaction when a failure occurs later on. Not Stewart's fault by any means, but a word of caution for those who might otherwise be too quick to "jump" if the summer turns out significantly less hot, dry and/or sunny than forecast.

Regarding the Met Office's long-range forecasts, they had a pretty good record with many of their earlier seasonal forecasts (particularly the winter 2005/06 one) but thanks to some unsuccessful later ones this seems to have been forgotten. This highlights the hit-and-miss nature of LRFs, hence my words of caution- Stewart's methods have, so far, proved to be pretty accurate most of the time but there have been occasions when the teleconnections have thrown up something unexpected and de-railed the forecast, as happened with the prediction for a milder February 2010 following an accurate call for a cold December/January.

I agree with you TWS, I just hope Stewart gets this one right as I really appreciate the work he does on here!

One thing to bear In mind is that it is a pattern he is expecting that doesn't mean on June 1st suddenly we have hot Sultry conditions etc, I'm not ruiling it out but as I'n the case of wet years such as 2007 there was a warm dry spell at end of July into august and often the general conditions of a season don't start until the middle of the first seasonal month as was the case with the wet I'n 2007 and 2008 and the cold I'n 2010 which started mid December!

[feb1991blizzard]

An excellent post by Terminal Moraine. In some ways I fear for Stewart because of his strong track record so far and the fact that this summer forecast is the sort of scenario that many people want to hear- it means that if the summer doesn't turn out as predicted, there could be uproar (and it wouldn't require a major shift in the projected setup for a warm but changeable pattern to arise with the trough further east than expected, or the change to cooler changeable conditions to set in earlier in the summer than expected). Like a PC game reviewer recently noted in a review of Portal 2 with regards Valve Software's record (where the reviewer similarly feared for Valve), when an individual or company gets an excellent reputation due to a string of successes, it can result in an unreasonably harsh reaction when a failure occurs later on. Not Stewart's fault by any means, but a word of caution for those who might otherwise be too quick to "jump" if the summer turns out significantly less hot, dry and/or sunny than forecast.

Regarding the Met Office's long-range forecasts, they had a pretty good record with many of their earlier seasonal forecasts (particularly the winter 2005/06 one) but thanks to some unsuccessful later ones this seems to have been forgotten. This highlights the hit-and-miss nature of LRFs, hence my words of caution- Stewart's methods have, so far, proved to be pretty accurate most of the time but there have been occasions when the teleconnections have thrown up something unexpected and de-railed the forecast, as happened with the prediction for a milder February 2010 following an accurate call for a cold December/January.

I dont wish to bash the met office too much because i still belive generally they do great job, however it was not just the BBQ summer failure, there was in my opinion a more schoolboy error in their final seasonal forecast before they ditched it (i dont know whether this was the final straw and they ditched it as a result), but the winter forecast 2009-2010 was done on a % basis, i cant remeber what exactly they said at the start but it was odds on a milder than average winter but in their monthly appraisal of the initail forecast they didnt change it that much, and baring in mind this was at the end of december 2009 when we had already had a cold start and all the model output, other outlets and even their own monthly forecast was hinting at severe cold for at the very least the first 2 weeks of January, it would have taken a monumental spell of double figures max temps in feb if it was going to end up a milder than average winter, and as we all know it didnt and was pretty cold right the way through though the snow was less frequent and heavy and more localised than in Jan.

Edited May 18, 2011 by feb1991blizzard

[Alex]

Realistically I don't know what they use to determine seasonal forecasts but it was in my eyes very schoolboy.

The met office have reasonable respect from me as I like their 6-15 day output but I think not doing a seasonal forecast is rather weak for a government run main weather society.

Summer 2009 was a bit like well we have el nino so it's going to be good and again I'n summer 09/10 oh we have el nino so we'll have above avg! Without sounding too anti met office because I do appreciate some of what they do, I just think they are too model driven and they seem to forget some of it is science as GP is illustrating. If they had come out and said 2009 will be BBQ summer because...... And it wasn't because....... Then maybe the public would of been more forgiving!

[feb1991blizzard]

Realistically I don't know what they use to determine seasonal forecasts but it was in my eyes very schoolboy.

The met office have reasonable respect from me as I like their 6-15 day output but I think not doing a seasonal forecast is rather weak for a government run main weather society.

Summer 2009 was a bit like well we have el nino so it's going to be good and again I'n summer 09/10 oh we have el nino so we'll have above avg! Without sounding too anti met office because I do appreciate some of what they do, I just think they are too model driven and they seem to forget some of it is science as GP is illustrating. If they had come out and said 2009 will be BBQ summer because...... And it wasn't because....... Then maybe the public would of been more forgiving!

As you quite rightly point out they are a government run organisation, i dont know whether they are fully funded by the tax payer but another thing that annoys me is their reluctance for the general public to have access to much of their model output and also their over sensitivity to people posting their forecasts on forums like this. As for how they arrived at their seasonal forecasts, i would imagine they did use scientific methods, but as you quite rightly point out, people would be more forgiving of wrong forecasts if they didnt just close ranks so much and gave more info in the forecast and in their appraisal.

[Alex]

As you quite rightly point out they are a government run organisation, i dont know whether they are fully funded by the tax payer but another thing that annoys me is their reluctance for the general public to have access to much of their model output and also their over sensitivity to people posting their forecasts on forums like this. As for how they arrived at their seasonal forecasts, i would imagine they did use scientific methods, but as you quite rightly point out, people would be more forgiving of wrong forecasts if they didnt just close ranks so much and gave more info in the forecast and in their appraisal.

You're right, I think they need to give more respect to us public. Why is it that other national weather services such a wetterzentrale and meteo France give out lots of information and met office don't?

[feb1991blizzard]

You're right, I think they need to give more respect to us public. Why is it that other national weather services such a wetterzentrale and meteo France give out lots of information and met office don't?

You know the only reason we get access to the full dataset on the GFS dont you, its because NCEP are obliged to release it to the general public otherwise they will lose any funding by the American government

Edited May 18, 2011 by feb1991blizzard