Summer Forecast - Hot & Dry - Shades Of 1976

[Cheshire Freeze]

Not GP, but QBO data indicates a strengthening -QBO during Autumn and into winter which generally correlates to a wetter Autumn.

Yes I think a wet autumn is a given to be honest. Though this may prove a relief after the summer!

[Weather-history]

Mr data heres one for u, what CET do we need to beat June July and August? Thanks I'n advance!

For June: 18.2 (1846)

For July: 19.7 (2006)

For August: 19.2 (1995)

Summer: 17.8 (1976)

[Coast]

Mr data heres one for u, what CET do we need to beat June July and August? Thanks I'n advance!

Drew reference to a previous thread above where the answer was

The summer of 1976 was the hottest ever recorded in the UK with a CET of 17.8C. Here's a summary of that summer.

[Cheshire Freeze]

For anyone interested here is the link for the latest CFS temp anomolys up until November..... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/euT2mMon.gif

Hints as far as autumn go that there is no firm trend in terms of temperatures; however large cold anomoly building to the east during November with higher than average temperatures over Greenland. Quite similar to what it was showing last year if I remember correctly. About as useful as a chocolate fireguard at this moment probably, but worth keeping an eye on.

[Backtrack]

Not far from June now. When can we expect the sunshine to start?

[feb1991blizzard]

For anyone interested here is the link for the latest CFS temp anomolys up until November..... http://www.cpc.ncep....s3/euT2mMon.gif

Hints as far as autumn go that there is no firm trend in terms of temperatures; however large cold anomoly building to the east during November with higher than average temperatures over Greenland. Quite similar to what it was showing last year if I remember correctly. About as useful as a chocolate fireguard at this moment probably, but worth keeping an eye on.

I will be following those CFS charts religiously over the next 5 months hoping we will get a stonking winter.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Not far from June now. When can we expect the sunshine to start?

Thursday June 9th at aproximately 7.58 am, though this may be interrupted by a cumulus congestus at 1.19 pm.

I jest I jest

[Backtrack]

Thursday June 9th at aproximately 7.58 am, though this may be interrupted by a cumulus congestus at 1.19 pm.

I jest I jest

LOL!

Damn, really was hoping it would start Thursday June 9th at approximately 6.58 am

[rob48]

I don't appreciate drought and dustbowl conditions and I can't see what the benefits are apart from personal gratification for some.

I hope it's wrong and we get plenty of rain - which we're short of already - for the benefit of growers and wildlife.

[Winter Warmer]

should i buy the pool for the garden now?

[MP-R]

I think this would be better news if a washout May had occurred between spring and summer. I'd much prefer a summer like 1995 with a respectable June, warm but often thundery July, then a drier August. In fact, locally, July 1995 was quite wet with near 20mm on the 10th and 26th as part of thunderstorms.

[Skyscape]

I don't appreciate drought and dustbowl conditions and I can't see what the benefits are apart from personal gratification for some.

I hope it's wrong and we get plenty of rain - which we're short of already - for the benefit of growers and wildlife.

Agreed, but I would still want some sunshine, because any rain comes out as drizzle, I will instantly demand sunshine. But yes, for the farmers sake, we need some rain!

[Gavin P]

Not GP, but QBO data indicates a strengthening -QBO during Autumn and into winter which generally correlates to a wetter Autumn.

Thanks SB.

[Ben_Cambs]

A very interesting and well detailed forecast, a very enjoyable read! Unfortunately though if this forecast verifies it could be very disastrous for the agricultural industry here .

[DAVID SNOW]

should i buy the pool for the garden now?

No,

There will be no bloody water to put into it.

[Bottesford]

I don't appreciate drought and dustbowl conditions and I can't see what the benefits are apart from personal gratification for some.

I hope it's wrong and we get plenty of rain - which we're short of already - for the benefit of growers and wildlife.

Last winters extreme cold didn't do a great deal for growers, wildlife or the economy but didn't stop it being popular with many on here.

Reliably dry conditions will have a great boost to our tourist trade and will certainly make for a thoroughly enjoyable summer where the majority of time can be spent living outdoors.

Certainly it isn't great for some kinds of farming although some crops will flourish if we get a lot of sunshine.

Personally in my garden I prefer it to be mostly dry then I can water things as I want without piles of slugs/snails eating everything or plants getting root rot/mold from being constantly soaked (lost a load of plants to this a few years back).

[William of Walworth]

I don't appreciate drought and dustbowl conditions and I can't see what the benefits are apart from personal gratification for some.

I hope it's wrong and we get plenty of rain - which we're short of already - for the benefit of growers and wildlife.

I do see your point about drought, and I sympathise (genuinely) with gardeners and country people, but come on, preferrers of cooler and damper/wetter summers have been able to absolutely fill their boots over large chunks of recent summers -- in many UK areas outside the SE anyway.

Us lovers of sustained sunshine and warmth, have had to take comfort in fairly intermittant respites from more Atlantic driven conditions over large parts of recent summers -- with the exception of late June last year (well timed! ) settled HP dominated summers conditions have been hard to find

So it's our turn now. I really hope GP is right .... B)

Edited May 17, 2011 by William of Walworth

[Weather-history]

.

then I can water things as I want

Assuming there isn't a hosepipe ban. Could very well be if it turns out as being suggested.

There was a hosepipe ban here just after the summer of 1995, the previous winter was exceptionally wet. Last winter wasn't especially wet so there will be water restriction issues if rainfall is still lacking come August.

[Bottesford]

I use a watering can so no biggy for me! I've only got a small courtyard to water though rather than a massive lawn and such.

Don't some places already have hosepipe bans already? We've just had Severn Trent telling us to save water so far.

[rob48]

Last winters extreme cold didn't do a great deal for growers, wildlife or the economy but didn't stop it being popular with many on here.

Reliably dry conditions will have a great boost to our tourist trade and will certainly make for a thoroughly enjoyable summer where the majority of time can be spent living outdoors.

Certainly it isn't great for some kinds of farming although some crops will flourish if we get a lot of sunshine.

Personally in my garden I prefer it to be mostly dry then I can water things as I want without piles of slugs/snails eating everything or plants getting root rot/mold from being constantly soaked (lost a load of plants to this a few years back).

Which is why most crops are planted in spring.

Consuming dust.

There was precious little of this going on in 76 when stand-pipes and bowsers were in use due to low mains pressure and garden watering was a criminal offence in many densely populated areas.

That's besides the vast swathes of countryside burnt to a cinder with the devastation of wildlife and danger to local buildings with an overstretched fire brigade without enough water to put the fires out. Outdoor living not quite so enjoyable in those circumstances.

Be careful what you wish for.

[Bottesford]

The water restriction are unlikely to reach that level with water resource infrastructure being a lot better than it was in 1976 with more ability to move water around the country.

Around here we're 10% down on usual - so 90% full. Even with no rain for the whole summer we won't be stand pipes - at least around here. Admittedly things further south east look less rosy.

[Derp Patrol]

I don't appreciate drought and dustbowl conditions and I can't see what the benefits are apart from personal gratification for some.

I hope it's wrong and we get plenty of rain - which we're short of already - for the benefit of growers and wildlife.

Much like i'm sure many of us don't appreciate the havoc and loss of life heavy snow causes in the winter, but we still like it.

I don't think anyone is wishing for a drought, but the weather does what it does and most of us understandably want a hot and relatively dry summer.

The world would be a very boring place if we all wanted mild southwesterlies all year around so that there are no droughts/freeze ups!

[ANYWEATHER]

The water restriction are unlikely to reach that level with water resource infrastructure being a lot better than it was in 1976 with more ability to move water around the country.

Around here we're 10% down on usual - so 90% full. Even with no rain for the whole summer we won't be stand pipes - at least around here. Admittedly things further south east look less rosy.

Haaa, Youve always got to remember that 1976 brought such drought conditions because the fact that Summer 1975 was also hot and dry!!!

[95 Degrees]

Which is why most crops are planted in spring.

Consuming dust.

There was precious little of this going on in 76 when stand-pipes and bowsers were in use due to low mains pressure and garden watering was a criminal offence in many densely populated areas.

That's besides the vast swathes of countryside burnt to a cinder with the devastation of wildlife and danger to local buildings with an overstretched fire brigade without enough water to put the fires out. Outdoor living not quite so enjoyable in those circumstances.

Be careful what you wish for.

Does depend on where you live of course, in towns/cites most (not everyone) will revel in this summer (if it materialises) whist people in rural areas may find this summer very testing!

[SNOW GO]

Shades and BBQ B) at the ready then and oh yes the umbrella just in case !!