Summer Forecast - Hot & Dry - Shades Of 1976

[Alex]

After reveiwing the data, my own alalysis does support the forecast from Glacier Point to a degree although i am becoming increasingly convinced of wet second half of August. I would agree with 'hot and dry' for the summer as a whole although likely not to the degree which is forecast by Glacier Point.

Hottest and driest summer since 2006, yes. Anything spectacular, no.

I'm interested on your thoughts why you aren't as supportive summer blizzard?

[Thundery wintry showers]

I certainly agree with the sentiments about not feeling guilty about enjoying something you can't control. I think there are occasions when "careful what you wish for" can hold true, when people wish for something that would bring far greater negative consequences than they envisage (e.g. if January 2011 had been as cold as December 2010, the repercussions may well have vastly exceeded those of December on its own).

From a drought perspective a summer with frequent blocking to the east is a better prospect than a summer characterised by frequent ridging from the Azores High, as the former introduces more scope for thundery outbreaks while the latter promotes frontal rain for the north and bone dry weather for the south. If the patterns outlined by Glacier Point verify I will certainly have far more confidence over it being hot and sunny than over it being dry, e.g. the Julys of 1994 and 2006, although quite dry averaged nationally, both had above average rainfall in some regions due to heavy thundery downpours. Thundery outbreaks may not be as effective at replenishing water supplies as steady frontal rain but they still help when there's enough of them about to raise rainfall totals close to the long-term average.

However thundery outbreaks aren't guaranteed as August 1995 for instance, as well as late June/early July 1976, were dominated by the pattern of high pressure over western Europe and a trough in the Atlantic and the trough was far west enough to ensure that most regions stayed exceptionally dry with only very isolated thundery outbreaks.

[Iceberg]

I think GP/NW will be pretty accurate again !. Hardly surprising I agree though given my own prediction below in my signature.

However I would add that I think with a more predominent Euro high and plumes there will be more thundery weather.

Re frontal precipitation I very much think and agree it will be rare this summer for England and the south.

[summer blizzard]

I'm interested on your thoughts why you aren't as supportive summer blizzard?

Essentially i do support the forecast although i think that we will see a much more toned down version.

The problem with summer 2011 is that the MEI and QBO are undergoing transitional phases which makes the summer much more difficult to forecast. I think that as long as the QBO stays positive and La Nina continues to weaken then conditions are good although if the weakening bottoms out or the QBO switches to a negative phase, then we have the potential for a very wet end to summer.

I think that June will be the driest month and July and August progressively wetter. June to average in the 15.5C-16C range, July in the 17.5C-18C range and August in the 16.5C-17C range.

[Iceberg]

It might be worth saying that LA Nina has finished and ENSO is now neutral, the 3 month lag that is used by CPC/BOM etc won't be showing this as it's a 3 month lag, however with regards to the here and now La Nina is no more RIP

[Summer Sun]

It might be worth saying that LA Nina has finished and ENSO is now neutral, the 3 month lag that is used by CPC/BOM etc won't be showing this as it's a 3 month lag, however with regards to the here and now La Nina is no more RIP

Now La Nina is now more is that good news with regards to us having this hot and dry summer? or does it have no effect at all?

[SNOW GO]

June and July look similar to last year at the moment on the CFS dry, warm and generally fine for June and Early July with things going progressively downhill from the North late July into August. A shame I suppose as August the traditional holiday month has not been decent weather wise in years perhaps as far back as 2003 up here.

Overall though no real signs from the CFS just yet of any 1976 scenario the Net Weather forecast suggests B) .

http://www.cpc.ncep....3/euPrecMon.gif - Precipitation

[johnholmes]

June and July look similar to last year at the moment on the CFS dry, warm and generally fine for June and Early July with things going progressively downhill from the North late July into August. A shame I suppose as August the traditional holiday month has not been decent weather wise in years perhaps as far back as 2003 up here.

Overall though no real signs from the CFS just yet of any 1976 scenario the Net Weather forecast suggests B) .

http://www.cpc.ncep....3/euPrecMon.gif - Precipitation

I'm not sure of how much use you have made of the CFS charts but they do change almost as often as the GFS runs do. Often there is little continuity or anything much like a decent type of trend in them. So do treat them with great caution.

[Buzzit]

I noticed this tidbit in NOAA Hurricane Outlook

"La Niña, which continues to weaken in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, is expected to dissipate later this month or in June, but its impacts such as reduced wind shear are expected to continue into the hurricane season."

Tying in nicely with part of the forecast

[Summer Sun]

I noticed this tidbit in NOAA Hurricane Outlook

"La Niña, which continues to weaken in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, is expected to dissipate later this month or in June, but its impacts such as reduced wind shear are expected to continue into the hurricane season."

Tying in nicely with part of the forecast

Which part of the forecast does it tie in nicely with?

[MP-R]

June and July look similar to last year at the moment on the CFS dry, warm and generally fine for June and Early July with things going progressively downhill from the North late July into August. A shame I suppose as August the traditional holiday month has not been decent weather wise in years perhaps as far back as 2003 up here.

Overall though no real signs from the CFS just yet of any 1976 scenario the Net Weather forecast suggests B) .

http://www.cpc.ncep....3/euPrecMon.gif - Precipitation

Forgive me for being an ignoramous here but isn't that exactly what happened last year when La Nina was very much in tact. Surely this wouldn't be the case with a neutral state and non-existent La Nina. I would have thought a much drier August than more recent years, and a considerably wetter September than the last few with thundery activity perhaps being more prevalent later in the season like in 2006. Not a dig, just curious.

[North-Easterly Blast]

Summers 2007 and 2008 were poor, at least around here. The Manchester Summer indices for these summers were 174 and 168 respectively, which are mediocre values to say the least. The problem with looking at just the mean temperatures is that you could have a month with low maxima and high minima and that is what happened with August 2008, the maxima were on the cool side, it was actually maxima wise the coolest August since 1993. August 2008 was a poor summer month, maxima were suppressed, rain was frequent and it was very dull.

Its the maxima that people tend to remember and respond to in the summer. People also respond more +vely when its sunnier than when its cloudier.

July 2010 around this neck of the woods was very cloudy.

The three factors that make for a memorable summer are large amounts of sunshine, lack of rain days and high maxima.

Its no good, if the month is warm but wet and largely cloudy.

Summer months in recent years have often been warm but wet and dull. Look at August 2004, warm overall but a washout. August 1997 may have been the second warmest ever, although on the sunshine and rainfall fronts it was nothing special. July 2010 was actually largely dull in many parts of the country despite it being reasonably warm and rainfall average to below.

[Don]

Very bold statement indeed! but if it did occur it would likely be in Late July/August as I couldn't see 35+ as early as june happening.

Absolutely, if we are to break the record, we would need the warm/hot pattern to last until the end of July at least, but if the expected cooler weather for August was to arrive earlier i.e mid July, then the chances of breaking the record would be highly unlikely.

[Alex]

Being I'n the southeast I would be happy to have a 1976 type June, 2006 or 2010 July (but 2010 July would be more widespread nice weather!) and 97 or 2003 august! Would love to have a record breaking session and again a run of 15 days at or above 30c!

[TEITS]

Personally I would like to see max temps around 25-27C. I find temps in excess of 30C very uncomfortable especially with high humidity. Certainly wouldn't be keen on experiencing temps between 35-38C as I remember how uncomfortable I felt during 2003. If I lived next to a lovely beach rather than being in a concreate jungle in the city my attitude might be different.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I wouldn't really fancy another August like 1997 or 2003 to be honest- the positive temperature anomaly was almost as large by night as by day, and sunshine amounts were not outstanding in most regions. The first 10 days of August 2003 were pretty amazing (if rather too hot for some in the south) but I can hardly remember anything about the rest of the month, other than the recurrence of dry but cloudy days.

August 1995 was much more memorable but would probably be problematic in view of the current drought situation if its synoptics were to be repeated. If pushed I would plump for August 1975 which was also hot and sunny (before 1995, it was the hottest in the CET series) but also with frequent thundery outbreaks.

[Great Plum]

Yuck... I really hope this forecast doesn't come off... With a toddler and another baby due June 3rd, the idea of humid nights and unbearable heat fills me with dread!

[Thundery wintry showers]

Having just made a point in the Model Output Discussion thread I thought I'd come in and correct one of my own criticisms of the seasonal forecast. I said that I thought of 1976 as a summer characterised by an elongated ridge from the Azores High covering the UK (perhaps influenced by some of West Is Best's posts over in the Model Output Discussion a couple of years back, who quoted that pattern from early August 1976).

I've looked through the archives and this only seems to have been true of one phase from late July to mid August 1976. The rest of Summer 1976 was indeed frequently characterised by the "high pressure over central/western Europe and Atlantic trough" pattern that also characterised July 2006 and most of July/August 1995, and not just the heatwave at the end of June like I originally suggested. The key to the 1976 drought, and also August 1995, was how weak and how far west the Atlantic trough ended up.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1976/Rrea00119760607.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1976/Rrea00119760626.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1976/Rrea00119760703.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1976/Rrea00119760817.gif

[Snowyowl9]

1976 summer was equivalent to I`d say opposite winter of 1962-63 so very unlikey we`ll see a summer like 1976.

1989 would be a better 2nd choice but even anything as dry/hot as that won`t happen IMO.

It`s going to be a 2011 summer.

[Backtrack]

Hmm, I really hope we are not going to be seeing an Atlantic dominated June. It's looking like the first week at least will be very unsettled with rainfall just about everywhere!

Edited May 22, 2011 by Funnel

[TEITS]

Hmm, I really hope we are not going to be seeing an Atlantic dominated June. It's looking like the first week at least will be very unsettled with rainfall just about everywhere!

Not sure I agree with that. This mornings 0Z GFS shows HP over Scandi with a warm SE,ly feed bringing plenty of warm, dry weather. This at times has also been hinted by the ECM.

[lukemc]

Hi,

As some were saying on here I know GP is amazing at long range forecasting but I really hope he does not get an egg in his face this time - even if it is for only one month (i.e. June). This is because good summer weather always makes me like a lot of people feel good and I sometimes feel depressed when we have long and protracted periods of "cool and unsettled" weather during the summer months. Also, as I live in the North West of England (Liverpool) the last 4 summers have been relatively poor - even though we have had warm and settled spells within those summers (and as others have said, 2007 was by far the worst of those 4), the warm and settled spells have either been almost non existent (i.e. 2007), short-lived (2008) or coming in June before it breaks down in early July to cool and unsettled conditions for almost the whole remainder of the summer (2009 and to a lesser extent 2010). Personally, I think Glacier Point's forecast will be rather accurate for this summer - I think the Netweather forecasts have been very good over the last couple of years e.g. 2009 when the MetO forecast a "BBQ summer" the Netweather forecast was closest to the mark predicting mixed summer conditions. But looking at some model output over the last few days and seeing some posts in the MOD threads both on this site and on other weather sites I could understand why at least a newcomer might be getting concerned for our June prospects! I think it would be nice to get an "official" 30 degrees C in this part of the world this summer too - I don't think Liverpool has recorded an official 30 degrees C (at least at the Liverpool Airport or Liverpool Crosby stations) since 2006 but can anyone confirm that? So I have had to travel to Spain to experience unbroken sunshine and 30C+ heat (for the last 4 years) and when I have been in Spain over the last 3 years it has been cool and unsettled for most of the time at home as we go to Spain in August.

As for someone on hear implying that a 1976 type summer is highly unlikely - even if we don't get a 1976 style summer I think that we should at least get a summer with below average rainfall - I think the last 4 summers have had above average rainfall and it is actually very rare statistically for us to have 5 consecutive poor summers as far as rainfall is concerned at least - the last time we have a run of 5 summers with above average rainfall was in the 1910s I think - even in the 1960s and 1980s we did not get a run of 5 summers with above average rainfall as far as I am aware - in the 1980s we had the run of poor summers from 1985 to 1988 and then we had the very decent summer of 1989 so if this summer was similar to 1989 it would closely follow GP's forecast. Even if 1976 in itself was quite a one off in this country warm and settled summers themselves are not - in the last 30 years we have had quite a few summers which have been decent enough so I think we should be due one soon (e.g. 1983, 1984, 1989, 1990, 1995, 2003 and 2006 and I am sure thier are other examples in the last 30 years which would be considered an improvement on the last 4 especially in the NW of England).

One of the most frustrating terms I hear on the forums (especially the MOD threads) for me living in the NW of England is "NW/SE split" - where the SE of England along with nearby mainland Europe has warm and settled conditions and we are stuck in cool and unsettled dross. It seems to have happened quite a bit in the last 2 summers - can anyone explain why just 150 miles or so can make such a difference and how the synoptics of say July 2010 (in which the SE England and nearby contiental Europe had a decent month, N to NW UK quite poor) from months were the whole of the UK has good weather like August 1995 etc? I sincerley hope we do not here much of that this coming summer and us in the NW does not miss out on any heat or sunshine!

Luke

[Backtrack]

Not sure I agree with that. This mornings 0Z GFS shows HP over Scandi with a warm SE,ly feed bringing plenty of warm, dry weather. This at times has also been hinted by the ECM.

The 06z shows a NE'erly feed with plenty of wet weather according to the GFS.

[Thundery wintry showers]

One of the most frustrating terms I hear on the forums (especially the MOD threads) for me living in the NW of England is "NW/SE split" - where the SE of England along with nearby mainland Europe has warm and settled conditions and we are stuck in cool and unsettled dross. It seems to have happened quite a bit in the last 2 summers - can anyone explain why just 150 miles or so can make such a difference and how the synoptics of say July 2010 (in which the SE England and nearby contiental Europe had a decent month, N to NW UK quite poor) from months were the whole of the UK has good weather like August 1995 etc? I sincerley hope we do not here much of that this coming summer and us in the NW does not miss out on any heat or sunshine!

Luke

July 2010 had a persistent pattern with high pressure to the south and southeast and Atlantic weather systems moving SW-NE off northern Scotland. This promoted a strong west to south-westerly regime, with dry, relatively sunny weather in the SE (although it also turned cloudy in Norwich in the last week), dull wet weather in the N and W and a dry cloudy zone in between.

August 1995 had a very different pattern- high pressure was sat on top of the British Isles for most of the month, with a rather weak jetstream and low pressure mostly stuck out in the Atlantic. Although the Azores High occasionally linked to support our high, the prevailing pattern had the Azores High displaced to the west of its usual position with a trough filling the gap between the Azores High and the high over the British Isles.

The key difference between the two months was that July 2010 had a much stronger jetstream which allowed depressions to move freely from west to east and resulted in the European blocking high being centred further south.

[TEITS]

The 06z shows a NE'erly feed with plenty of wet weather according to the GFS.

At the time of our posts only the 0Z GFS run was out so my point was perfectly valid for that run.