Positive Weather Solutions Extreme Long Range Forecast

[Summer Sun]

Had to laugh when i saw this, only PWS could do this

Autumn 2011 - Winter 2012

These are the latest long term projections produced by the PWS System.

September 2011 - Warmer than average; on the average for rainfall.

October 2011 - Slightly colder than average; markedly drier the average.

November 2011 - Slightly colder than average; wetter than average.

December 2011 - Slightly colder than average; slightly drier than average.

January 2012 - Substantially colder than average; slightly wetter than average.

February 2012 - Substantially colder than average; slightly wetter than average.

Serena Skye

Contributing Weather Forecaster

Saturday June 11th 2011

http://www.positiveweathersolutions.co.uk/UK-Eire---Frontier-Cast---Extreme-Long-Range.php

[SP1986]

[cheeky_monkey]

i think they have a fantastic track record...second to none..at being wrong of course.

[Somerset Squall]

Surprise suprise, they are going for "substantially colder than average" for January and February. I dearly hope they are right, but really, what a joke.

[Nights King]

Maybe they are playing it safe and backing the form horse!?

So we should expect mild rubbish this winter then now they have said that

[UV-RAY]

Surprise suprise, they are going for "substantially colder than average" for January and February. I dearly hope they are right, but really, what a joke.

I believe they will be right, as we are now firmly stuck in a predictable pattern of Northern blocking and a Southerly tracking jet. Until this shows signs of abating, then the prospects of another cold winter cannot be ruled out.

[stewfox]

I'd say that forecast is a step too far to be honest. I can see the next 6 months being quite similar to 2008 to 2009 to be honest.

But no red moon

I predice next 6 months less day light hours

[Somerset Squall]

I believe they will be right, as we are now firmly stuck in a predictable pattern of Northern blocking and a Southerly tracking jet. Until this shows signs of abating, then the prospects of another cold winter cannot be ruled out.

Oh, I'm not ruling it out don't get me wrong. It could happen. But to go that far in advance with month by month detail is ridiculous. How would they know that October will be markedly drier than average then November wetter than average? LOL

[bobbydog]

heres my extreme long range seasonal forecast:

SUMMER 2011

after a dull start, it may well continue to be dull or it might get better. it depends on the weather really. if it does get better, we could see some hot sunny weather, great for barbecues and outdoor activities. if it doesn't, then it won't be so good for barbecues or outdoor activities.

temperatures should range somewhere between below average and above average, but will be well above the seasonal average for winter, hopefully.

rainfall amounts are unclear at this time, and will very much depend on how much it rains.

AUTUMN 2011

after a dull start, it will probably stay dull, as autumn usually is. but not necessarily. it will probably be rainy and could be very windy at times but we could see some unseasonally good weatherat some point during the autumn as this does happen sometimes. again, this depends on the weather.

temperatures should range between below normal and above normal and possibly normal

we are more confident about rainfall during this period as it will definitely rain at some point

WINTER 2011/2012

if the scientists are to be believed, we could be in for a very harsh winter. if they are not then we won't. we do know that this winter will be very cold compared to the average summer and that snow will be a common sight on the top of the scottish mountains and siberia

temperatures will be well below the average for florida

rainfall will definately amount to something and we are confident that any rain will be wet

SUMMARY : Shades of 76 or any other year which matches the weather at any given time. but whatever the weather, enjoy it, because we'll all be dead by the end of next year, according to the mayans, or a supervolcano, or something, or not....

Rob x

[Roger J Smith]

To be fair, the extensive cold water anomalies in the North Atlantic have many people considering this sort of winter outlook. I think there's little point in speculating this early when people with reasonable track records often make their calls in October or early November, but at this point, I wouldn't bet against a cold winter.

[Weather-history]

They couldn't get the second half of May right, recently. Even taking out the usual tabloid hype, there was no heatwave during the second half of May, it was even below average the last few days.

[Methuselah]

I'll second that!

[Cheese Rice]

FAIL!

At least they didn't put out a load of outlandish claims like they usually do..

Edited June 16, 2011 by Cheese Rice

[damianslaw]

I'd say that forecast is a step too far to be honest. I can see the next 6 months being quite similar to 2008 to 2009 to be honest.

The next six months takes us to December - and the predictions if they do occur fit very nicely with what happened in 2008 and 2009 (though to a lesser extent as Oct and Nov were both very mild months..)

Also jan/feb 09 and jan/feb 10 saw much cold weather - the latter winter in particular.

[ZONE 51]

taking a look at PWS long term outlook to autumn and winter it is a reasonable outlook, i would not say theres any problem with it! its pulling together the general factors we have and other, and putting foward a reasonable account of the seasonal situations to come like wetter or drier..colder or milder. for example at this point we may be getting hints of september and slight hints many months ahead, it is a brave one though as when we get to winter someones going to be checking what they had said now!

Edited June 17, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Methuselah]

I've never been all that impressed by PWS's LRFs. But, I guess they'll get one 'right' sooner or later...

[EaasmanG]

i think they have a fantastic track record...second to none..at being wrong of course.

Most LRF's a just little more than guesswork unfortunately. Unlike some, I do believe they should be attempted, but currently, as of 2011 they are not of any real use enough to be believed or accepted as anything more than an experimental thing. Before writing things like this, don't forget, your comment here is in fact directly applicable to netweather.tv, if we take the summer LRF. Not only this summer, but I can remember (as a forum lurker) reading a "G.P special" LRF for summer of 2006 - his prediction appeared to be that that summer would be predominately cooler and wetter, with no real heat. And we had the hottest July on record. So becareful before dissing other private forecasters.

Edited June 17, 2011 by EaasmanG

[Summer Sun]

PWS have updated there Extreme LFR

September 2011 - Warmer than average; on the average for rainfall.

October 2011 - On the average; drier the average.

November 2011 - Slightly colder than average; wetter than average.

December 2011 - On the average; slightly drier than average.

January 2012 - Colder than average; slightly wetter than average.

February 2012 - Substantially colder than average; Wetter than average.

Serena Skye

Contributing Weather Forecaster

Saturday June 18th 2011

[trisyork]

However though their 'sunblock and brolly' summer forecast is currently on track to be more accurate than the 'shades of 76'.......

[Jack Wales]

As we issue LRF’s here on this site, I think it’s a bit rich if we deride similar attempts from other groups, no matter how unrealistic they seem at the time.

As for the PWS forecast, it may prove to be not too far off the mark. As Rodger says the sst profile is intriguing for the coming autumn/winter (although this is liable to change). Plus with an easterly QBO, neutral ENSO and a seemingly embedded long-term pattern of northern blocking, I don’t see mild as an option for late autumn / winter, more a question of how cold.

[Methuselah]

IMO, any forecast that is couched in sufficient understatements will almost always be not far off the mark. That, IMO, is not because of any immense knowledge of things meteorological, necessarily; because all things in Nature tend to regress toward the mean.

[Summer Sun]

So this summer PWS have been spot on with their pridection for Summer a brolly and sunblock summer, spot on so far apart from a few differences in date you can't argue so far - http://www.telegraph...ock-summer.html - hope he's right for August.

Here are there latest predictions for winter 2011 / 2012,

These are the latest long-term projections produced by the PWS System for the UK and Eire. Unless stated, averages apply nationwide for UK and Eire.

September 2011 - Slightly warmer than average. Drier than average - all areas bars Eire; Wales; South West England, Central England.

October 2011 - On the average for temperature. Drier than average.

November 2011 - On the average for temperature. Drier than average for all areas bar Northern Scotland.

December 2011 - Colder than average. On the average for rainfall for all areas bar Scotland, Northern Ireland, Northern England.

January 2012 - Colder than average. Wetter than average.

February 2012 - Colder than average. Wetter than average.

Serena Skye Contributing Weather Forecaster Tuesday July 12th 2011

http://www.positivew...-Long-Range.php

[Methuselah]

'Spot on' as in no better than chance? Another LRF that's designed to read like a horoscope??

[Summer Sun]

PWS Autum / Winter forecast updated, there still going for a slightly warmer than average September, and a Very cold period from December to February.

Autumn 2011 - Winter 2012

These are the latest long term projections produced by the PWS System for the UK and Eire. Unless stated, averages apply nationwide for UK and Eire.

September 2011 - Slightly warmer than average. Drier than average.

October 2011 - On the average for temperature. On the average for rainfall.

November 2011 - On the average for temperature.Drier than average.

December 2011 - Colder than average. Wetter than average.

January 2012 - Decidedly colder than average. Wetter than average.

February 2012 - Decidedly colder than average. Wetter than average.

Serena Skye Contributing Weather Forecaster Saturday July 16th 2011

http://www.positiveweathersolutions.co.uk/UK-Eire---Frontier-Cast---Extreme-Long-Range.php

[Crepuscular Ray]

Given how badly off the detail in their forecast for this weekend was (as was the MetO's t.b.h.), I'd rather trust in seaweed and pine cones for even short term forecasts, let alone long-range ones.