Convective / Storm Chat And Discussion

[seabreeze86]

no nothing here i no what you mean about the humidity cant stop sweating, feels like there should be a storm but nothing doing according to the radar for my region. Just missed out on a storm earlier as it passed to the north by 25 miles or so. Looks good for tomorow

[P-M]

Is it me or does anyone else like the look of those cells or showers that have formed NE or Lancaster? They appear to be merging and there are some showers popping up ahead of them too. Mind you MetO have now changed their forecast from this morning "a very slight risk of a thundery shower for northern England" to "some storms are likely to rattle on in to the night over northern England" just shows you how things can change on the day or hour!

[paul m]

no nothing here i no what you mean about the humidity cant stop sweating, feels like there should be a storm but nothing doing according to the radar for my region. Just missed out on a storm earlier as it passed to the north by 25 miles or so. Looks good for tomorow

Just looked at Leeds chances tomorrow and they are pretty high

Edited June 26, 2011 by paul m

[Alex95]

Looking really thundery again with a few large drops of rain. If those showers develop further we could get a nice show at around 10-11pm.

[Staffordshire]

Where are you alza?

[Alex95]

Where are you alza?

North Side of Newcastle upon Tyne.

Edited June 26, 2011 by alza

[P-M]

Looking really thundery again with a few large drops of rain. If those showers develop further we could get a nice show at around 10-11pm.

Hello Alza, not spoke since the snow events of last November but gimme your thoughts! I have been watching those since they started off Lancaster a while ago and they are intensifying somewhat....

[Alex95]

Hello Alza, not spoke since the snow events of last November but gimme your thoughts! I have been watching those since they started off Lancaster a while ago and they are intensifying somewhat....

Yes they do, the only thing that concerns me is that they seem to be heading for the Cramlington area at the moment. Having said that its hard to tell as they're developing constantly. A small storm / heavy shower developed suddenly around Cramlington half an hour ago which is encouraging.

Edited June 26, 2011 by alza

[P-M]

No I think the top sections are but the middle and bottom sections are looking like they will go through Gateshead and Newcastle and exit towards the Whitley Bay area no? (Maybe Killingworth...)

[Alex95]

No I think the top sections are but the middle and bottom sections are looking like they will go through Gateshead and Newcastle and exit towards the Whitley Bay area no? (Maybe Killingworth...)

Pretty hard to tell, I'm just going to wait and see

[P-M]

Well to me they appear to be headed in a straight line but as you say anything could happen including nothing at all lol

[Snowstorm1]

Hope the line moves bit further south so I can get some action and good to see fellow northeasterners in here

[seabreeze86]

All looks to far north for me anybody no if there is a chance of anything developing abit further south than were the showers currently are?

[Alex95]

Heavy shower all of a sudden! Still 23°C, so warm rain.

Rain stopped - I hope that's not it! I don't think its electrified anymore anyway.

[P-M]

Heavy rain in Gateshead now and the sky to my west is black and very stormy looking cant believe noone is reporting thunder?

[Thundery wintry showers]

Too far north for Cleadon too- a slight change in cloud movement in the last hour, enough to deflect the showers that little bit further north. Some pretty impressive cloud formations though!

Haven't heard any thunder this time around either (the showers are close enough for thunder to be audible if they were electrified).

[Neilsouth]

Click on Canterbury then video forecast

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/2159

:drinks:

Forecast 1

http://ukasf.co.uk/?name=Storm&mode=view&id=22

forecast 2

Issued and Cross Posted from the Synoptic Forum

Moderate Risk of SHowers and Thunderstorms over many parts of the UK. Point Specific Probabilities are quite low. More Moderate risk generally in NE England and SE England

Upstream developments are becoming complex the broad longwave trough is moving toward the UK, with Vorticity filaments in its base (evident in WV Imagery) and the old cyclonic circulation which originated over the Canary Islands is now degenerating into a shortwave as it moves N along the West Coast of Portugal. This is the problem for monday as the models have a history of poor handling of this system. The trough looks more marked on Imagery still vs what the models are expecting at T+6 and the trough has already generated T-Storms over Iberia today and is now generating some AcCast as it moves North across Portugal and Biscay. This has the UK's name on it.

Trajectories take this NE over Western and then N Parts tomorrow followed by an area of Neutral forcing and then the major trough moves East and PVA in the base of the trough (now West of Madeira) moves NE ahead of the trough. All this makes it extremely complicated for forecasting, but no doubt that will not stop everyone claiming a let down if they dont get a storm. (tongue in cheek yes - but its a hard time forecasting this stuff!!)

Taking the main models (NAE, UKMO GM, GFS, ECMWF and HIRLAM) it appears two main areas are at risk tomorrow though there are big differences in the models. The 1st area is linked to the 1st shortwave / Vortex mentioned above. This moves North and then NE and produces an expanding area of AcCast across Wales, SW, into parts of Western Southern England and then North into N England tomorrow afternoon. As it does it will destabilise at times as it moves over the underlying warm Plume, sufficient cooling aloft and the warm plume below creating enough differential thermal advection to trigger some mainly medium level storms and showers - these falling into a drier zone below. Some possibility that surface based storms may fire over NE England tomorrow afternoon, though ECM is not keen.

The 2nd area is an area of Showers and Storms which is triggered by the approach of the main trough and the 2nd area of forcing tomorrow evening and night across CS and SE England. All models in some form or another develop / break out sHowers and storms later tomorrow afternoon and evening and move them NE. The main developments taking place overnight with Heavy Rain and Thunderstorms forming a possible MCS over London and the SE (somewhere) Heavy totals possible here. Both NAE and ECMWF favour a corridor from the Chilterns to Norfolk in a sort of zone. GFS prefers a more SE Location. Nowcasting will be needed for the detail tomorrow night. Regardless local large totals are possible 20-30mm in a few hrs while other places stay completely dry.

The Big Q mark is the SW. The Hirlam breaks out some heavy rain here tomorrow afternoon, but its not clear if this is linked to the 1st or 2nd area of forcing. Its not present in the other models, but the NAE does develop some Ac Cast showers here during the day esp eastern parts. Hence the model disagreement means a large Q mark for this area at present.

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=43645&posts=2

[Alex95]

Torrential rain now

[P-M]

Too far north for Cleadon too- a slight change in cloud movement in the last hour, enough to deflect the showers that little bit further north. Some pretty impressive cloud formations though!

Haven't heard any thunder this time around either (the showers are close enough for thunder to be audible if they were electrified).

Evening TWS. Yes no thunder however they appear to be intensifying to my southwest....still raining here too!

[Alex95]

Heavy rain still with 30 second pulses of really torrential rain. Surely somewhere will get some thunder from this! Probably in the middle of the North Sea

[P-M]

I am sure I can here faint deep booms coming from my south.... could be wrong but its definately there...

[Dom W]

Had some heavy rain and thunder over Shotton earlier this evening before it all went out into the North Sea. Can see some black clouds to the north and west of me.

[stormchaser1]

Nothing in Gosforth at the Moment, Just had a short sharp shower, but it feels

very humid out there, clouds rolling in from the South West, fingers crossed

[P-M]

Torrential rain now.... still waiting for the lightning tut tut

[Dom W]

Seems to be all happening out in the north sea from those storms earlier