Model Output Discussion

[Gordon]

Yes real scorcher in deed , little puzzled why GFS seems to have dropped support for the England / SE thunderstorms though . All the other weather sources are going for it as well as the news . Although I must say I expected a storm breaking out in the SE last night and nothing did. Guess we will have to wait and see.

well selfishly speaking and slightly off topic but I for one pray we don't get any , it can rain all it likes just take the thunder and lightning somewhere else

seems that after today it's going to similar to what we had recently with the emphasis on less in the way of showers for some areas and temps at a respectable level

Edited June 27, 2011 by Gordon

[snowmadchrisuk]

well selfishly speaking and slightly off topic but I for one pray we don't get any , it can rain all it likes just take the thunder and lightning somewhere else

seems that after today it's going to similar to what we had recently with the emphasis on less in the way of showers for some areas and temps at a respectable level

Well think GFS was wrong ... As storms are allready breaking out across the SW and GFS has them in the Channel, Cloud may ruin some peoples hottest day of the year looking at Sat pics. For the outlook period , I would agree Sunshine , light Showers and Warm but not as Hot as the last 2 days. After that we will have to see but I wouldn't rule out later July turning into a bit of a washout . Although if GP's teleconnections play ball then you never know what may happen.

[SP1986]

After this blip, it does looks like a period of below average-average weather will recommence and sustain as we head into July. Low pressure is just about preventing a link up of the Greenland high to the Azores High, which just about prevents some unfavourable blocking (only just though), which would signal the point about phase 1 & 8 of the MJO. (It does however seem the Greenland high will keep its residence throughout most of July?)

Instead signals are for low pressure to take the stage, albeit slack low pressure, so generally a cool and humid outlook ahead, although as we've seen in the past week, these things can change overnight.

[shedhead]

The big 2 continue to show some marked variation over the UK at 168hrs, but without question both have the block well and truely in place across Greenland at that time, ensuring no significant change to the pattern we've

endured through the bulk of this month. Whilst we continue to enjoy positive insights from some more experienced members going forward, I'm struggling to see how we are going to fully break this current pattern, with July

probably just throwing up some occasional, brief very wam/hot blips, such as the one we're currently witnessing. Even then I suspect any genuine heat will be confined to southern and eastern England though, with our

friends across the north and west largely missing out. August now holds the best hope of some sustained, nationwide warmth in my humble opinion, but even then we may find the block only easing sufficiently to allow

spells (4-5 days) rather than periods (6-14 days) of fine, sunny weather.

[Gordon]

Well think GFS was wrong ... As storms are allready breaking out across the SW and GFS has them in the Channel, Cloud may ruin some peoples hottest day of the year looking at Sat pics. For the outlook period , I would agree Sunshine , light Showers and Warm but not as Hot as the last 2 days. After that we will have to see but I wouldn't rule out later July turning into a bit of a washout . Although if GP's teleconnections play ball then you never know what may happen.

yep the met office did forecast to cloud over as the day progresses and this seems to be happening , just thankful I'm not in the E/SE as the worst of the weather is forecast there later

I know I'm drifting off topic again

[PubliusEnigma]

For those of you suffering the heat, good news on the fax run, the cold front really gets its act together tonight

and ushers the hot weather over onto the continent by tomorrow morning with slack cloudy northerlies in the E and more

particularly the S East

Should see temps fall markedly to the summer average 20 - 21oC tomorrow..

[PubliusEnigma]

Well think GFS was wrong ... As storms are allready breaking out across the SW and GFS has them in the Channel, Cloud may ruin some peoples hottest day of the year looking at Sat pics. For the outlook period , I would agree Sunshine , light Showers and Warm but not as Hot as the last 2 days. After that we will have to see but I wouldn't rule out later July turning into a bit of a washout . Although if GP's teleconnections play ball then you never know what may happen.

Yep this all seems to tie in with the very latest fax modeling two lows tracking NE. THe first is just off the coast of Devon, Cornwall and is tracking NE as shown by the red line, and a further low currently further south over biscay is also

tracking NE, taking the majoriy of the activity over france clipping East Surrey, Sussexes and Kent later this evening.

With a drier slot likely along the blue line trajectory.

[PubliusEnigma]

It seems the Biscay low modeled on the fax is not developing as much as one might have exepected. It is throwing a trough of showers, some thundery North east into France, which should give Paris a show later this afternoon, and possibly clip Kent too if they make it over the channel.

Sat24

If you watch the movie you can see the cooler north westerlies undercutting the trough

and they have just about reached NW Brittany coast, I wonder if this will limit convection in

this zone later this afternoon ?

Edited June 27, 2011 by PubliusEnigma

[Cheese Rice]

Wouldn't rule out another hot snap from Thursday- Saturday, max temps reaching 20-24.c across most of england by Saturday. This could well be higher providing the weak high to our south east moves away allowing warm southerlies to be pulled north in line with the low pressure.

[PubliusEnigma]

Where is the detailed charts for the exected Cape and lifted index to be found for the next 6/12/18/24 hrs ?

[Frosty.]

The more I look at the charts, the more I think that more northern parts of the uk, the northern third of the uk at least looks like being cheated out of any kind of summer this year, the prospects are increasingly bleak with low pressure tending to dominate to the northwest of the BI with spells of rain and occasionally strong winds with temps below average so a rotton spring followed by a dismal summer up there but for the south it looks much better at times with high pressure in control or at least semi control for long periods with temps mostly above average, the mini heatwave is now reaching it's peak and tomorrow will be less hot in the southeast but still up to 24c but then trending a little cooler with temps nearer 18-22c for the second half of this week but then maybe warmer again at the weekend and into next week but for scotland the shambolic summer is set to continue.

[The PIT]

Anyone wanting a laugh look at this http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=6&carte=1021 Look at t144.

Waiting for ECM to come too see if backs the slightly disappointing GFS.

Edited June 27, 2011 by The PIT

[Ben_Cambs]

Its looking dry across the South for the next few days, with the influence of the Azores high. Slightly more unsettled with some showers the further North and West, particularly this weekend as a low becomes stationary near Iceland. Temperatures look generally average, depending on cloud amounts, so it should feel pleasant in any sunshine particularly across the South. Temperatures may rise slightly above in the South come the weekend, though there still may be some more showers across Scotland and NI.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1201.gif

Edited June 27, 2011 by Ben_Cambs

[Gibby]

Here's a snapshot of the 12zs of UKMO, GFS and ECM tonight.

UKMO tonight shows pressure building from the SW over the coming days replacing the cool NW flow thats developing as I write. After a few showers tomorrow and perhaps Wednesday the high pressure dries and warm things up for most up to the weekend. At 144hrs the UK lies in something of a 'col' area with mostly dry weather though not excluding the chance of a shower.

GFS shows a similar trend up to the weekend but then turns the weather very unsettled with an eventual belt of Low pressure from Britain to Scandinavia lasting several days delivering copious showers or rain at times. In the very far reachs of FI the Atlantic remains in control though not without some pleasant weather in the south for a while under a transient Atlantic ridge. Rather cool generally.

ECM also shows a ridge of high pressure late in the week before collapsing under pressure from the Atlantic and Low pressure over the Baltic. after a dry and warmer few days late this week the weekend would see a greater chance of showers. Thereafter, its high pressure over Greenland and the path of Atlantic depressions that have the UK in their sites that maintain a westerly flow with rain at times and relatively cool conditions for all areas.

The outlook looks broadly similar tonight to what it has been with the Atlantic dominant over the UK. Both GFS and ECM paint an unsettled picture with just short drier interludes between the Low pressure areas and temperatures looking no better than normal for most.

[UV-RAY]

Normal service resumed as from tomorrow, nowhere near as wet as previous for Northern areas, but temp drop like a stone to below average/ average for all. Still it should be pleasant in any sunshine,

[Thundery wintry showers]

I get the impression that most eastern parts of England will end up with quite a cool cloudy day tomorrow due to the cold front hanging around for a while, with the supply of hot continental air largely cut off, and some intermittent light rain, probably sunnier in the west though.

As the Azores High ridge slowly inches its way over to the British Isles we can expect two days (Wednesday/Thursday) of sunshine and showers and fairly cool temperatures across most of the UK with the showers heavy and possibly thundery in some eastern parts, SE Scotland and NE England look most favoured for this. For the driest sunniest weather the best bet is the south-west of the country, closest to the high pressure. With no sign of any frontal activity at all, there should be a fair amount of sunshine even in the showery areas. Friday, with the high pressure on top of the country, will be a mostly sunny day with just isolated showers, and it will be warmer.

It might surprise some to see that I'm predicting a showery day for many on Thursday with pressure above 1020mb in most parts of the British Isles, but I've seen setups like this in the past that delivered a fair number of showers down the eastern side of the country, assisted by some convergence near the North Sea.

Current model outputs suggest that weak fronts will spread in from the Atlantic by the weekend which will bring mostly dry cloudy weather- the rain on the frontal systems will tend to fizzle as it moves east but I expect the cloud associated with them to be quite stubborn. However, eastern parts of England will probably see a fair amount of sunshine at times, particularly early on in the day.

[john pike]

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess=

no comments on the 18z

ensembles after tuesday look coolish but fairly dry

for a few days

no signs at present of any heat like we have at present

[conor123]

Pleasant weekend for England & Wales if the 18z comes off, with each run these weather fronts are shown making less progress across the UK so for England & Wales 21-24c and sunshine seems quite likely this weekend after some showers over the next few days though SW England should stay dry for the rest of the week now.

[grab my graupel]

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Brian