Model Output Discussion

[Thundery wintry showers]

That would be an extremely tall order. I recall that July 1988 may have managed it ("an unremittingly disturbed month" as Trevor Harley called it, a wet month in all regions with only parts of E Scotland and NE England reaching close to average sunshine). But most cool summer months have at least one warmer interlude somewhere.

Btw a sustained spell of northerlies is statistically unlikely in July and August, certainly far less likely than it is before mid-June. It does happen occasionally (Augusts 2005 and 2006 had some, I believe, as did that cool cloudy last third of July 2005) but the current signals don't really support it to me.

Edit: ECMWF for Monday looks like thunderstorms galore in the east!

Edited June 22, 2011 by Thundery wintry showers

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

We need a bit or realism here. Some quite ridiculous temps have been touted over the weekend into Monday.

Like the the record low temps and sleet you were touting a few days ago for July?

(I know I shouldn't feed the trolls but I couldn't resist just this once )

[Costa Del Fal]

The GFS 12z ensembles are decent enough imo at least for the Southern Half of the UK. Not very wet by any means with pressure remaining generally high on the mean of the ensembles and temperatures at least average to warm at times.

I think for most, many would take the given charts even if they are not perfect.... thats what i would like to think anyway despite some OTT posts in here at times.

[Summer Sun]

Like the the record low temps and sleet you were touting a few days ago for July?

(I know I shouldn't feed the trolls but I couldn't resist just this once )

And the reason we are touting these temps is because, it may well happen the beeb are saying as high as 28c by Sunday, now looking at tonight's ECM i'd say 30c + is realistic for Tuesday of course london and the south will be warmest but maybe the midlands could be close, also i wouldn't rule out widespred thunderstorms as the heat rises.

Edited June 22, 2011 by Gavin D

[SP1986]

There is no doubt the ECM run for the weekend until Tuesday is very impressive and if it came off would result in some impressive thunderstorms, warmth and humidity. Alas I don't think it is realistic and I don't buy into the +15C at 850hPa covering nearly the whole country. In reality it will just about make the south coast.

[conor123]

The ECM is absolutely PERFECT, however the GFS & UKMO are simply not good enough with only Sunday being nice and warm for those North West of Birmingham!

The ECM is a thunderstorm lovers paradise, that 144hrs chart has to be one of the best charts since 2006!

What a shame it won't come off.

[Staffordshire]

And the reason we are touting these temps is because, it may well happen the beeb are saying as high as 28c by Sunday, now looking at tonight's ECM i'd say 30c + is realistic for Tuesday of course london and the south will be warmest but maybe the midlands could be close, also i wouldn't rule out widespred thunderstorms as the heat rises.

Widespread storms for what days?

[k19]

Confidence very low around the 4th of July, so any predictions based on the GFS revolving around this time are probably inaccurate.

Also the 850's look like at least low 20's for this sunday

[Summer Sun]

Widespread storms for what days?

Tuesday

[Jason T]

I love that ECM, only because it delivers what we all like, I think thats one the best runs in weeks, considering the dross lately. The bottom line is ( weather ) it lasts or not, ENJOY it. Still it could also be a trend trying to build, and hopefully after t144, ( lets worry about that later ).

[Staffordshire]

Tuesday

Thanks mate, I guess this is unreliable though! I've only started Reading graphs and stuff since October and I'm not awfully good

Edited June 22, 2011 by Staffordshire

[Summer Sun]

A long way off i know, but there is a continued signs of LP over Greenland, also note the deep low showing,

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html

[J10]

There is no doubt the ECM run for the weekend until Tuesday is very impressive and if it came off would result in some impressive thunderstorms, warmth and humidity. Alas I don't think it is realistic and I don't buy into the +15C at 850hPa covering nearly the whole country. In reality it will just about make the south coast.

#

When was the last time 850Hpa of over 20c was recorded over the UK, and what was the temp on the ground.

[Summer Sun]

#

When was the last time 850Hpa of over 20c was recorded over the UK, and what was the temp on the ground.

This may help you mate - http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/for

[SP1986]

#

When was the last time 850Hpa of over 20c was recorded over the UK, and what was the temp on the ground.

9-10th August 2003 I believe in very stagnant air from the continent. Don't need to tell you the temperature <_<

500hPa chart:

[Gibby]

Good evening folks. Here's the evening look at the latest 12zs from GFS, UKMO and ECM.

GFS shows a showery day tomorrow before a ridge dries things up overnight and Friday morning. The ridge crosses the UK quickly and is equally quickly followed by a warm front moving NE through the day. Rain innitially in the west will move quickly north and east through the day and could be heavy in the north. Rain or not the weather is shown to become very humid with hill fog and drizzle Friday night. By Saturday low cloud and fog on hills could be reluctant to lift from windward coasts and hills but the cloud would break in the south and east late Saturday and more widely on Sunday with temperatures rising steeply in some hot sunshine. However, by Sunday night and through Monday a weak cold front moves steadily east removing the hot air and introducing cooler fresher Atlantic winds to flood in later. There could be a short spell of thundery weather accompanying this change but widespread thundery activity from the charts as shown looks unlikely. Thereafter through the rest of the working week cooler Atlantic winds and some showers in the North occurs before a rinse and repeat setup allows very warm weather to return briefly over the second weekend and again at the end of the run with further cold fronts moving east cutting short further warm snaps with a further risk of thunder at the transition points.

UKMO shows a similar pattern with the ridge on Friday giving way to a rather active warm front moving NE later in the day and overnight. Saturday and more especially Sunday shows a rapid brightening as very warm, humid air moves up from the south with some very warm sunshine in the SE particularly. Over Sunday night and Monday a cold front trundles east with the risk of thundery rain before things cool down and freshen up late in the day. By Tuesday with Low pressure to the North an Atlantic westerly develops keeping things rather cooler but dry for southern parts though showery further north.

ECM continues to be the joker of the pack tonight with the events up until Sunday the same as those described above. Thereafter, the hot weather of Sunday is shown to extend into Monday as Low pressure develops down to the SW. Overnight Sunday and into Monday things are shown to become very thundery as cooler air advances into the hot air over England. Showers and thunderstorms could break out widely lasting into Tuesday before cooler air pushes in from the west on the southern flank of the Low as it continues to drift North over Ireland. By Wednesday increasingly cool air extends to all of the UK in association of a deep low over Scotland with strong winds, rain and showers for all. As this moves away pressure builds again from the south with the chance of a rerun similar to GFS by the weekend. The run ends with the second warm surge also being displaced by a cold front with thundery rain followed by cooler temperatures in association with a low to the NW.

In Summary tonight both GFS and ECM support a rerun of the heat build this weekend as a possibility next weekend too. If the ECM run transpires some copious rainfall totals could occur early next week. The long term still looks generally quite changeable with spells of cooler showery conditions interspersed with short warm or very warm weather terminated by short thundery conditions.

[Staffordshire]

Is this Spanish plume where this tunder potential is coming from?

[Summer Sun]

Is this Spanish plume where this tunder potential is coming from?

From what i gather it's the heat over the uk, with a cool LP system moving in from the West / North west and as the 2 meet bang you may get a thunder storm, note the word may.

[Staffordshire]

From what i gather it's the heat over the uk, with a cool LP system moving in from the West / North west and as the 2 meet bang you may get a thunder storm, note the word may.

I won't get my hopes up till Sunday at the earliest! I get disapointed so much when I get excited early, if you remember at the begining of December last year we were meant to have that deep LP system banging into the cold air causing widespread distruption and cataclysmic destruction... HAHA that didn't happen I'm sure this will get downgraded

[ANYWEATHER]

A long way off i know, but there is a continued signs of LP over Greenland, also note the deep low showing,

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html

Gavin, Up to t-240 which is the outer realms of Fantasy Island, there is the model output from both ecm and gfs that high pressure remains over Greenland, unless Ive got some wrong looking charts!! ,anyway a "disturbed" outlook , Im sorry folks thats the way I see it, I would be the first on the Bandwagon if I saw a pattern change For now Though a Warm up is almost certain, muggy, cloudy conditions for a lot of folks, the South East of England "Locally" could see temperatures into the "LOW" 80,S, possibly during Sunday and Monday...London looks favourable. But, for the general outlook it remains unsettled... :o

[Geordiesnow]

The ECM looks a little unrealistic to my eyes however as it has shown this on this morning's run also, it may be onto something however I think the GFS/UKMO breakdown set up of a low pressure off the Atlantic rather than from the West of France moving northwards looks more likely and knowing our luck its probably be the one that comes off.

However as its the ECM you just never know I guess.

[Jason T]

9-10th August 2003 I believe in very stagnant air from the continent. Don't need to tell you the temperature

500hPa chart:

Right of topic sorry mods, but i remember that year well, my daughter was born on august the 4th that year, BOY was that hot.

[TEITS]

Have to say as much as I would love the ECM +144 chart to be correct, if I look at the other model output it seems the ECM is somewhat on its own. The ECM at +144 really would be tasty with temps possibly around +30 before it all goes bang especially in E Anglia/SE. The other models would only bring very warm temps followed by a boring transition to cooler weather. Still whatever happens I shall enjoy Sunday with max temps around 25C, possibly 1-2C higher depending on sunshine amounts.

[Eugene]

Massive hot outlier from Ecm 12Z tonight, all other model runs are cooler and the ensemble mean is too , a definate trend to push the heat eastwards tonight with only one very warm day now looking likely, still looks good though with hardly any rain and pleasantly warm temps.

[Evening thunder]

The ECM's charts kind of remind me of this event, which is the only other occurrence I've found than August 2003 where the 20C 850hpa line was over part of the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1968/Rrea00219680702.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1968/Rrea00119680702.gif

It would be interesting to see what the temps reached from this.

The next day 0C 850's were moving into the SW..

I found these chart before by reading reports of an event somewhere when somewhere in S Devon had hailstones 7cm across from this :o

Have to agree though that it's probably unlikely the ECM will be correct.