El Gordo! - Spanish Plume Thunderstorm Discussion

[Coast]

God this stuff is compulsive at the moment, GFS please don't let us down!!!! :lol:

[Summer Sun]

I'm in Great Yarmouth from Tomorrow to Thursday, any chance for me?

[Coast]

I'm in Great Yarmouth from Tomorrow to Thursday, any chance for me?

Possibly spot on!!!! Plenty of time for a change of direction and intensity, but the last few runs have kept East Anglia in the thick of it for Monday at least.

[Summer Sun]

Possibly spot on!!!! Plenty of time for a change of direction and intensity, but the last few runs have kept East Anglia in the thick of it for Monday at least.

Wouldn't suprise me to see a downgrade but you never know.

[Harry]

Come Tuesday, I'm still probably going to be in the No Storms Club. Boo.

Still, I hope those in the southeast have fun with this -- I've only lived here since early May, but I'm under the impression that this is a pretty rare setup. I'm vicariously excited for you while maintaining some small hope that the West Midlands' day will come.

Plume thunderstorm events leading to large MCS' are not rare events in themselves. They happen at least 2-3 times a year in the SE (more in a good year, maybe once at most in a bad one). If the synoptics provide a more S to N, or SE to NW setup, they can affect a much wider area of the UK.

What is particularly exciting and rare about this event are the following:

1. High CAPE over France and especially high for small areas of the UK, notably EA (2500 to 3000 CAPE is rare for the UK)

2. Very high Lifted Indices over France and again small areas of the UK, notably EA (-5 to -7 again! -10 to -12 over France is high for the States

3. Strong jet and sheared profile - it is rare in the UK for a plume thunderstorm setup (and MCS) to be coupled with both a strong jet and a relatively strongly sheared environment. In most plume setups, the jet is often to the W or N. On this occasion, the jet could be in the thick of the action, really organising any large storm/MCS features and introducing severe characteristics including the risk of large hail, tornadoes and strong wind gusts. MCS can be large in the UK and bring frequent lightning and torrential rain, it is not common though for them to be severe.

All in all, a particularly memorable/historic event COULD unfold!

Edited June 25, 2011 by Harry

[Cableguy]

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-stories/2011/06/24/weekend-weather-britain-set-for-hottest-days-of-the-year-thanks-to-spanish-plume-115875-23222751/

[Guest]

Im seriously thinking of heading down

Me too. It'd be quite a drive, and costly, but if I'm going to do this just once this year, Monday seems like the day to do it. Hmmm

[Summer Sun]

Found this from another site,

Don't know what it means all i know is it has something to do with what may be coming our way.

[Raidan]

It's annoying not knowing where or when the possible storms will hit,I've got the time and money to take the trip east but dont want to waste it.

[Harry]

Me too. It'd be quite a drive, and costly, but if I'm going to do this just once this year, Monday seems like the day to do it. Hmmm

One recommendation I would make guys, is time your journey well!

Rush hour in the SE, even outside of London is an absolute b*tch!!!

Your best time to get into the S/SE would be around 11-3...failing that anytime after say 6-7

Found this from another site,

Don't know what it means all i know is it has something to do with what may be coming our way.

Translated, it means

Edited June 25, 2011 by Harry

[Guest]

Thanks Coastie.

Also, anyone who has experiences chasing in the SE, say I got there around 3ish, where would be a good place to play the waiting game? On the coast of Kent?

Any info/help/advice etc would be tremendously appreciated.

[Summer Sun]

http://www.mirror.co...15875-23222751/

That's nothing compared to what the express have -

[Rays]

Hey guys.

I've been hanging around here for a while but decided to register because these next few days just seem so dam interesting.

I'm in Birmingham studying meteorology at the moment but it doesn't look like the best of the storms are going to get close. I unfortunately don't have a car to travel down and the train/bus costs seem excessive.

Is there anyone with a spare seat in the West Midlands area heading to Kent/East Anglia for a spot of storm chasing? It would be my first chase in England (done one in Northern Spain). If not it will be down to youtube and radars like usual.

[jimbo36]

Thanks Coastie.

Also, anyone who has experiences chasing in the SE, say I got there around 3ish, where would be a good place to play the waiting game? On the coast of Kent?

Any info/help/advice etc would be tremendously appreciated.

Wait till Monday if I were you, last 2 GFS runs for CAPE & LI is already a big downgrade for the SE compared to the extraordinary values showing yesterday.

Having just experienced my first ever US storm and tornado chase earlier this month, really hope that the severe risk comes off for the SE Monday / Tuesday, but looking like normal UK storms at the moment.

As for positioning, best you have wi-fi connectivity in car so you can get up to date radar, dew point, CAPE & LI info from NW. Even a chase day in the US can cover 200+ miles, so expect a busy day

[richep]

So somerset's out of the question for any action on monday? Shall be interesting radar watching though.

[jimbo36]

That's nothing compared to what the express have - http://forum.netweat...63#entry2094863

that's the mirror and express for you. Over exaggerated and headline grabing rubbish. Follow NW for a decent accurate forecast nearer the time

[dave48]

Looking forward to seeing the forecasts for tomorrow, a chance of some good storms for northern parts too on Sunday.

[Guest]

Wait till Monday if I were you, last 2 GFS runs for CAPE & LI is already a big downgrade for the SE compared to the extraordinary values showing yesterday.

Having just experienced my first ever US storm and tornado chase earlier this month, really hope that the severe risk comes off for the SE Monday / Tuesday, but looking like normal UK storms at the moment.

As for positioning, best you have wi-fi connectivity in car so you can get up to date radar, dew point, CAPE & LI info from NW. Even a chase day in the US can cover 200+ miles, so expect a busy day

Thanks.

I've stormchased once before, covering over 300 miles. It was semi-successful, although generally I was one step behind. I'm looking really to park myself in a hotspot early on, and then watch the radars and travel more if necessary. Like you say I'll wait until the Monday morning output before actually making a decision.

[jimbo36]

So somerset's out of the question for any action on monday? Shall be interesting radar watching though.

wouldn't write off anywhere just yet mate as things can change, check forecasts tomorrow on NW

Thanks.

I've stormchased once before, covering over 300 miles. It was semi-successful, although generally I was one step behind. I'm looking really to park myself in a hotspot early on, and then watch the radars and travel more if necessary. Like you say I'll wait until the Monday morning output before actually making a decision.

well if you do come down Monday and haven't got wi-fi, i'll be keeping a close eye on things, you can always PM me for up to date info from NW radars etc

[Guest]

wouldn't write off anywhere just yet mate as things can change, check forecasts tomorrow on NW

well if you do come down Monday and haven't got wi-fi, i'll be keeping a close eye on things, you can always PM me for up to date info from NW radars etc

That's super kind of you, wifi is a no-go for me so was just planning on keeping tabs on this thread, or the general convective thread. Cheers!

[Harry]

Thanks Coastie.

Also, anyone who has experiences chasing in the SE, say I got there around 3ish, where would be a good place to play the waiting game? On the coast of Kent?

Any info/help/advice etc would be tremendously appreciated.

Personally, I would recommend starting anywhere from Beachy Head along towards Camber (view point), which are both in Sussex but definitely somewhere coastal. Unobstructed views and relatively quieter roads. You can then alter your position either east or west subject to where any storms develop and then track. There is as far as I am aware a coastal road which runs along from Eastbourne towards Dungeness.

If you plump for Kent (which is where I live and therefore I'm far more familiar with), then by far the best road IMO is the M20...it runs from the high ground of the North Downs down to the Folkestone and Dover (circa 50 miles of motorway running pretty much ESE to WNW). You can take J10 at Ashford, jump on Bad Munstereifel Road and then take the A2070 and head towards Brenzett. From there, you can take either the A259 West to Rye/Camber (E Sussex) or East towards Romney/Dymchurch/Dungeness...this is probably where I'll head, again subject to the models remaining as are at the moment. I'll be keeping a close eye though on what the Shermanator (Paul Sherman) and others are doing to ensure I get in the right position - tho the nature of MCS is that there probably won't be a specific key place...there's a chance it could engulf several counties.

In terms of journey, I would suggest once you reach the M25 to head the longer route anticlockwise, past Heathrow and along the southern stretch. I think there are roadworks still along the northern section, plus the Dartford (or "QE2") Bridge can have congestion tailbacks for a few miles starting as early as 3pm.

Come Monday, if all is still looking good and there's a lot of us on the move in the evening, it might be worth exchanging emails/BB messenger details/phone numbers so that we can all communicate as events proceed!

Wait till Monday if I were you, last 2 GFS runs for CAPE & LI is already a big downgrade for the SE compared to the extraordinary values showing yesterday.

Having just experienced my first ever US storm and tornado chase earlier this month, really hope that the severe risk comes off for the SE Monday / Tuesday, but looking like normal UK storms at the moment.

As for positioning, best you have wi-fi connectivity in car so you can get up to date radar, dew point, CAPE & LI info from NW. Even a chase day in the US can cover 200+ miles, so expect a busy day

Really?

Edited June 25, 2011 by Harry

[Guest]

Thanks Harry, great post.

I'll be keeping tabs on this thread through the next day or two so I'll let you know

[cmimrie]

Depending upon when things kick off Monday/Tuesday, I'll also be one of the many tracking the storms along the coast, been preparing all the equipment today such as power, internet and the camera mounts for the car.

[weatherobsuk]

Just wondering if anyone up north would be interested in doing a car-share? as now is about the time were closer to being sure of the target area and costs involved. A 4-man team would be much cheaper than individuals having to fork out for bus/train/plane tickets and with pre-package meals easier on logistics aswell. Unfortunately I don't have a car myself but anyone interested (I know there's quite a few we could form a team with) PM me, and we can get a topic going.

There's still a day and a half to arrange things so its not too late just yet.

[Summer Sun]

The bbc's forecast a few moments ago showed 31c for london on monday, but they also showed the rain / thunderstorm areas before cool air pours in by Wednesday.