El Gordo! - Spanish Plume Thunderstorm Discussion

[icbinb]

Well i've found two other idiots prepared to chase with me. Now, Monday or Tuesday? mmmmm

[Guest Quantumsnow]

sounds great - shooting and beer! (actually it sounds wrong but oddly, great fun!)

I know! Wrong but so right :lol:

Well i've found two other idiots prepared to chase with me. Now, Monday or Tuesday? mmmmm

Indeed. Definately thinking I might be unwell on one or both of these days. Will watch and see what happens I guess. Enjoy your chase!

[Norfolk Sheep]

Yeah!!! They've upgraded again from earlier! Still insane cape/li figures!!! Getting increasingly like the airmass - moist pmsl

Paul Domaille on UKWW is saying GFS moves everything slowly eastward with a reduction in Dps and surface temps in the UK...slight chance of some action in the SE while mainland Europe gets the action (will have to run that video again )

[Nick F]

12z ECM ealier showing an MCS early Tuesday morning across C/S and SE England:

A bit further east than the 00z ECM which had the low further west, while 18z GFS seems to be edging further west with the thundery breakdown zone where the trough from the west interacts with the plume from the south.

Recent t+96 fax update for 12z Tues looks interesting for severe storms, cold front lying from Humber SW to Dorset and a pre-frontal trough across SE England:

[ZONE 51]

Tuesday 12-1pm-just a quick draw up here-the placements may be a little to the left or right but just a general idea of where there sit!, this is at this stage and would change.

Edited June 25, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[knocker]

For Monday no significant change since yesterday. The METO fax for 12z has the CF lying from just west of Cornwall, through east Wales and the Newcastle area. The GFS sticking to the main area of activity being around the east Midlands and E. Anglia and still pluggin high dew points. Situation in France much the same as yesterday and the upper winds still fairly light from the SW.

[richardc1983]

What a shame looks like Leeds is going to miss out.

Poor France though! What is all the black on the 2nd picture?

[Biggin]

What a shame looks like Leeds is going to miss out.

Poor France though! What is all the black on the 2nd picture?

That is bad news for France Cape / LI wise, or good news if you like storm potential. Black is as bad as it gets, they have run out of colours should it get any worse.

[knocker]

Poor France though! What is all the black on the 2nd picture?

Much CAPE which is widely used as an indicator for thunderstorm and severe weather risk. (not on it's own.) It's basically energy available and the equation to calculate it yields integrated instability in joules per kilogram. The black indicates a very high figure for these parts as you can see on the scale at the bottom meaning France could well be in for a torrid time.

[richardc1983]

Much CAPE which is widely used as an indicator for thunderstorm and severe weather risk. (not on it's own.) It's basically energy available and the equation to calculate it yields integrated instability in joules per kilogram. The black indicates a very high figure for these parts as you can see on the scale at the bottom meaning France could well be in for a torrid time.

Thank you for taking the time to explain that.

[Static Prevails]

Hoping on an upgrade for me on the next run or I won't be happy.

[Cableguy]

Latest charts show the storms taking an oh to familiar track up the channel clipping Kent and pushing into Benelux, but of course there is time for this to change and its only one run............

[Coast]

21 OWS, UKMO interpretation still has the SE involved, with the main action in France on Monday:

GFS KO index for Tuesday looking better again:

> 6: no potential risk thunderstorms.

2-6: small potential risk for thunderstorms.

< 2: potential risk for thunderstorms.

Dewpoints still good on GFS, although a bit reduced from recent runs:

They go a bit nuts later on Tuesday if these charts come off, boy is that going to be sticky!!!

At which point the CAPE in Herstmonceux is nice and strong:

Cambridge sounding forecast for Monday is a real treat:

Unbelievable sheer in France. At this rate they are going to get pasted with massive storms and huge hail!

But there are indications (at this very early stage) we will still be in for a display

Amongst all of this thunder and lightning potential, I overlooked the tornado possibility:

I still think we are 'on' for it viewing the latest information, where and when? well who knows!!!! Tuesday may be better than Monday, but I haven't seen charts covering either day, that have been so juicy looking for a long time.

Fingers still firmly crossed - bring on 'the fat one'!!!

[Nick F]

The models seem to be nearing some sort of agreement now for the thundery breakdown Mon/Tues.

Before then, GFS seems to indicate some storms developing over Nern England on Sunday afternoon/evening, aided by orographic lift across Pennines and N York Moors, 40-50knts of deep layer shear in place, warm moist air (GFS progging DPs in high teens to 20C) and strong low level shear here indicate potential for one or two severe storms with potential for large hail, flash flooding and perhaps a tornado - lightning wizard has an STP for N England:

Then on Monday 00z ECMF and UKMO fairly similar to 00z GFS and now the 06z GFS coming out in that they develop thundery rain and thunderstorms across central-S and SE England later on Monday/early Tuesday which then moves NE towards E Anglia and Lincs into Tuesday morning.

- 00z ECM Tues 0600

- 00z UKMO GM Tues 0000

- 06z GFS Tues 0600

... this destabilisation taking place ahead or near the cold front as the plume is over-run by increasingly cold air aloft as upper trough moves in from the west, a low develops over Nern France early Tuesday moving N towards Sern England which will further enhance large scale ascent. Given 40-60 knots of deep layer shear and strong destabilisation likely of the plume, would expect storms to form an MCS with a threat severe weather including strong wind gusts, large hail, flash flooding and frequent lightning. Too far off to pinpoint where exactly an MCS may move over though. Monday afternoon and evening 00z GFS picked up possible isolated storms breaking out in the heat of the day over Nern Home Counties, Lincs and E Anglia area - 32C progged by UKMet, so again any storm will develop in a strongly sheared environment with potential for severe characteristics of any storms that form, i.e. large hail, damaging wind gusts, flash flooding and perhaps a tornado/ Again LW have an STP for Monday afternoon across this area:

[Paul Sherman]

This is a tough one Nick

2 of the Models break out an MCS From the IOW North Eastwards from Monday Evening all the way through to first light Tuesday (So a pretty wild night on Monday night from the MCS With all facets of Severe weather possible) This reminds me of August 6th a few years ago when something identical happened incidentally.

But GFS Is the only one showing the Surface Based Storms breaking out ahead of the MCS On Monday

Need to make the call to the BBC Ideally today What would your opinion be with regards to getting the Film crew out for Monday ?

Either way the SE Is virtually nailed on for an MCS Monday Night into Tuesday

Paul S

[TEITS]

Thats a tough one Paul.

Personally if I was storm chasing on Monday I would stay around my area incase home grown storms did break out. I would then travel towards London during the late evening ready for anything that moves up from France.

[D-J-V]

Loooooking goood! My first UK chase since Sep 1st 2005!

[Paul Sherman]

Thats a tough one Paul.

Personally if I was storm chasing on Monday I would stay around my area incase home grown storms did break out. I would then travel towards London during the late evening ready for anything that moves up from France.

Thats pretty much what I have in mind Dave

Can always relocate southwards and get into position for any developments from 7-9pm Monday evening as well

Paul S

[lewisosd]

Anyone in East Anglia (Suffolk/Norforlk) interested in a chase? Don't mind going on my own but it's always good to have some company.

Paul - that video was priceless. Couldn't stop laughing lol!

[Evening thunder]

I really wish I could get further east and chase this somehow, but unfortunately I will be stuck here Monday having to go to school to do my A levels, and If only I had passed my driving test yet. I'd be happy with any kind of decent storm let alone any severe threat e.g. largish hail.

Alternatively, the plume can move a bit further west

[Nick F]

Need to make the call to the BBC Ideally today What would your opinion be with regards to getting the Film crew out for Monday ?

Either way the SE Is virtually nailed on for an MCS Monday Night into Tuesday

Paul S

A difficult one Paul, 06z GFS now doesn't break out any preciptn/storms on Monday afternoon/evening, UKmet forecast currently says " Hot and humid on Monday, perhaps with an evening thunderstorm " for E Anglia. NAE doesn't go out as far as Monday afternoon yet. Could be either fantastic if an isolated storm can develop from the heat of the day or bust!

The ingredients are indicated, i.e. abundant CAPE,

just need the forcing to overcome a stout cap likely given rather deep warm moist air adevction likely aloft. GFS does show some wind convergence over E Mids and E Anglia, which may create enough forcing to break the cap:

I would go with a cautious YES, though with a risk of a bust!

[D-J-V]

Anyone in and around the London area who wants to chase with me is more than welcome, got 2 spare seats!

[Paul Sherman]

Cheers Nick

Think I will phone Dani up today and let her know to get the troops ready for a 2pm Start, that way we can head towards East Anglia and see if anything can overcome the Cap and if not then head back towards the London area for the possible MCS Monday evening then and point out the possibilities of the earlier day Cap Bust.

Chris Hollins (BBC Breakfast Guy) will be driving the Hire Car with me in the Passenger Seat and 3 Film crew in the back, with Paul M & Arron in the 2nd Vehicle doing the GPS & Live Streaming to Netweather, we also have 2 Way Radio Contact a la USA.

Cant wait - Woohoo

Paul S

[we1330]

Cheers Nick

Think I will phone Dani up today and let her know to get the troops ready for a 2pm Start, that way we can head towards East Anglia and see if anything can overcome the Cap and if not then head back towards the London area for the possible MCS Monday evening then and point out the possibilities of the earlier day Cap Bust.

Chris Hollins (BBC Breakfast Guy) will be driving the Hire Car with me in the Passenger Seat and 3 Film crew in the back, with Paul M & Arron in the 2nd Vehicle doing the GPS & Live Streaming to Netweather, we also have 2 Way Radio Contact a la USA.

Cant wait - Woohoo

Paul S

I'll keep a look-out from the West Anglia section of the A14

[Paul Sherman]

Anyone in and around the London area who wants to chase with me is more than welcome, got 2 spare seats!

Dave why not jump in with Paul and Arron ?? Think they will have 2 spare seats