El Gordo! - Spanish Plume Thunderstorm Discussion

[95 Degrees]

Downplaying it on Monday but East Anglia hanging in there. Move to France.

If France gets that setup in exactly a month i'll be smiling, I'm off to Paris on the 27th July and it's about time I saw something worth calling a storm, gotta love France but would it mind giving us some CAPE/LI further west so that we can sky watch!

[Buckster76]

Everyone off the train - come on

This was set to happen ....

Edited June 23, 2011 by Buckster76

[ZONE 51]

NAE 00z taking a look at the last charts in the run

These two charts are saturday-1800hrs

look at the heat shown down south

- Surface temps

on the upper temps chart this shows the hot plume, and this is heading our way-see the dotted lines(arrowed)with numbers 15/20

- upper 850s temps

GFS 00z

moving into sunday at 1200hrs - the hot air arrives

- upper temps 850s

- surface temps

as you can see the dotted line with 15 on it now touches our shores-this is the heatwave

the next charts are at 1800hrs

- upper temps 850s

- lifted index at 1800hrs

- CAPE at 1800hrs

taking a look at the simple weather type chart next-this indicates convective showers breaking out in places sunday

- weather type

-

next looking at monday-the plume has arrived and its becoming hot and humid for the SE/EA with warm or very warm in many other zones

- surface temps

-

850s

850s

an incredible amount of energy builds over France and moves up over the UK

- CAPE 1200HRS

- LIFTED INDEX 12OOHRS

- 1800HRS

- 1800HRS

next tuesdays CAPE

all very exciting with heat and thunderstorms-a hot plume!!

at this stage the potential for some massive storms monday night and tuesday moving up and developing with this hot plume

before that though keep a watch on sunday as some energy builds!!

-

Edited June 24, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[knocker]

Regarding Monday the METO have the cold front just about in the same position as yesterday with the complication of making it a double front with a trough over the east of the country. The GFS is broadly speaking sticking to the same line as yesterday so central and eastern parts are for the moment still on course. How much eastward slippage? Place your bets.

EDIT:

Meant to add the METO is going for heavy showers Mon. & Tues.

Edited June 24, 2011 by weather ship

[Static Prevails]

Well, the GFS is complete rubbish on Tuesday apart from the far South East. I'd probably have an outside chance on Monday.

[Coast]

Glass half full still for me, time for change but even Mr Fish said on BBC South East Today's breakfast forecast at 6.30 'just like a typical British Summer, two days of sunshine and a thunderstorm'

Anyway, plenty more model runs to come before Monday and Tuesday, let the roller coaster ride continue!

[DeepSnow]

It would be really nice if it all shifted west to gives us in Wales and the SW a chance too! Haven't had a decent storm since 2009, so one some time soon would be very welcome! Fingers crossed things will go right for once

[Staffordshire]

It would be really nice if it all shifted west to gives us in Wales and the SW a chance too! Haven't had a decent storm since 2009, so one some time soon would be very welcome! Fingers crossed things will go right for once

Yeah wouldn't mind!

[DanN]

Just had a quick look this morning and Tuesday is looking quite capped. Forecast Skew-T over the highest CAPE area has some warmer air around 900mb. But there is also a trough now showing ahead of the cold front. Still too far out for any real detail.

[Coast]

GFS still sticking to its guns:

First of the UKMO based charts starting to come in for first thing Monday (00z)

[Mark Harris]

OK don't get me wrong, I love a good thunderstorm and good ones used to give me a good few shouts in the Fire Service in the past. However I'm flying back from Paris on Monday afternoon to LHR, should I be concerned?! Would such "activity" forecast prevent flights?

Cheers > Mark

[Harry]

Well the 00z has pushed the risk back West slightly and UPGRADED AGAIN the specifics...LI's of -13 now progged over France for Monday....unreal!!!

[Coast]

OK don't get me wrong, I love a good thunderstorm and good ones used to give me a good few shouts in the Fire Service in the past. However I'm flying back from Paris on Monday afternoon to LHR, should I be concerned?! Would such "activity" forecast prevent flights?

Cheers > Mark

I think France (and Pairs particularly) will be in the thick of it over the first couple of days of next week. Not sure if it will be too big to fly around but rest assured, your airline will take safety considerations first and schedules second. I'm afraid none of this will be settled until early Monday morning.

[AWD]

Am I right in saying the ECM has it the furthest west/most widespread! And it's kept to it's guns for its llast few mdel runs now?

Surely the ECM verifies over the GFS occassionally so it could possibly verify??

[Coast]

Forecast soundings for the period leading up to any potential storms now starting to dribble through. In themselves they are not too bad compared to what we have had in recent times. Typically for Cambridge on Monday 00z:

Data explained here: http://www.skystef.be/forecast20m.html

If you really want to see where things go off the scale, look at these for Tuesday/Wednesday !!!

Strom-chase EU anyone?

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Forecast soundings for the period leading up to any potential storms now starting to dribble through. In themselves they are not too bad compared to what we have had in recent times. Typically for Cambridge on Monday 00z:

Close to Stuttgart next week, coming home Thursday, guess when it starts getting interesting near Stuttgart?

[peterf]

level 2 heat alert issued by the METO.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/heathealth/

[Nick F]

It's just like the emotional rollercoaster we have during the winter on here when a cold/snowy spell comes and goes in the charts!

Still alot of model uncertainty with how the plume interacts with the upper trough pushing in from the west early next week. 00z GFS develops some storms over Nern England on Sunday, then perhaps an isolated storm over E England on Monday, but many areas dry. Monday night into Tuesday GFS sharpens a frontal zone along NW edge of plume across SE England/E Anglia, so heavy thundery rain and storms here.

While 00z ECM develops a low over Biscay on Monday - which then drifts NE across southern England before exiting out over E Anglia later on Tuesday, brings some very heavy rain for Wales, western and northern England. Unclear if storms will develop further SE though.:

Still too much uncertainty to look too specifically yet.

[NUT]

Meanwhile here in scotland............ I am not expecting anything at all but some places could potentally be in for a very nice treat. Enjoy whoever gets anything (and take loads of pics of course)

[TEITS]

Norfolk, Suffolk appear to be the places to be on Monday according to the 06Z GFS.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs846.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs848.gif

[chapmanslade]

Most seem to be forgetting how these things usually play out and so once again getting too excited !

Significant activity over France such as the 'heat low' shown on some charts will result in a large MCS with huge cloud overspill to it's NE - many times this kills insolation the following day and so nothing happens.

I'm not saying 'no storms' but am saying keep some perspective on it all.

[Harry]

06z while keeping CAPE/LI well up into fantasy land, gives the impression less is likely to come towards the SE (unless homegrown)

The concern for me with the surface low running north from France is that it could spoon any storms more NE then struggle to swing them back our way.

As Nick says far too early to be too analytical

For those in C/S and E England, we can remain safe in the knowledge those amazing colours are still there on the charts!!!

[TEITS]

Most seem to be forgetting how these things usually play out and so once again getting too excited !

Significant activity over France such as the 'heat low' shown on some charts will result in a large MCS with huge cloud overspill to it's NE - many times this kills insolation the following day and so nothing happens.

I'm not saying 'no storms' but am saying keep some perspective on it all.

I generally have the same attitude with storms as I do when snow is predicted especially snow showers. Generally I wait until the day in question arrives and even then prefer to use radar, sat, local conditions rather than the models.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

32°C for London on bbc for monday, mentions thunderstorms in the wimbledon area, covers could be on, be good to see the lightning on red button if no play

[Nick F]

Obscene CAPE and LIs progged by GFS over France early next week, though the model notoriously overdoes dew points and thus CAPE. Funny the near continent's so close yet has a far better deal for severe storms, but it is so expensive and time consumming to make the 22 mile leap across the Channel to make a chase feasible. Sometimes I wish there was no sea in between, but most the time I'm glad there is!