El Gordo! - Spanish Plume Thunderstorm Discussion

[Staffordshire]

Yes that is true.

In terms of energy and lift though, we could have enough, especially if the high dew points come off!

Could the plume shift westward?

[Harry]

Keeping in the spirit of the nationwide theme, based on the 06z GFS this is my VERY BRIEF, VAGUE, quick ensemble of storm risk from 12z Sunday to 00z on Wednesday. This is where I put the chances of seeing at least one storm, either overhead or near distance, in those three days.

Emphasise as ever, this is based on the one GFS run only (not UKMO, ECM et al).

And before I get the biased label thrown at me, the only reason the SE quadrant is red/pink is due to the risk of imports which tend to be large and cover a much more expansive area than home growns...colours do not reflect extremity of storms in any way (got to get the caveats out of the way first lol)

Edited June 23, 2011 by Harry

[Summer Sun]

Thanks Guy's, an interesting spell of weather coming up after Saturday as things stand.

[Coast]

Sorry but this is all new to me, could some one please explain what the above means?

[SimonP]

Keeping in the spirit of the nationwide theme, based on the 06z GFS this is my VERY BRIEF, VAGUE, quick ensemble of storm risk from 12z Sunday to 00z on Wednesday. This is where I put the chances of seeing at least one storm, either overhead or near distance, in those three days.

Emphasise as ever, this is based on the one GFS run only (not UKMO, ECM et al).

And before I get the biased label thrown at me, the only reason the SE quadrant is red/pink is due to the risk of imports which tend to be large and cover a much more expansive area than home growns...colours do not reflect extremity of storms in any way (got to get the caveats out of the way first lol)

lol Harry, love the textual description for the pink zone!

[DanN]

Yes that is true.

In terms of energy and lift though, we could have enough, especially if the high dew points come off!

Energy and lift are different from shear though. Without suitable wind shear you wont get the updraft/downdraft separated from each other for anything serious. Not too mention any updrafts that would need to rotate to be classed as a supercell.

[Coast]

Could the plume shift westward?

Far too early to contemplate positioning, just enjoy the potential and stick around here to watch the roller-coaster ride of successive model runs!

[Harry]

Far too early to contemplate positioning, just enjoy the potential and stick around here to watch the roller-coaster ride of successive model runs!

Absolutely! Especially for the newbies, please please please note that many a time we've seen ramping potential to have it dashed little the morning of the 'event'.

However, can the plume shift westwards? It most certainly can - will it? Haven't the foggiest.

[Staffordshire]

Far too early to contemplate positioning, just enjoy the potential and stick around here to watch the roller-coaster ride of successive model runs!

Oh okay then, i can only really read gfs/ECM/ukmo charts and don't really know what anything else says, I spose we will have to wait untill Sunday to know the positioning?

[Jane Louise]

Keeping in the spirit of the nationwide theme, based on the 06z GFS this is my VERY BRIEF, VAGUE, quick ensemble of storm risk from 12z Sunday to 00z on Wednesday. This is where I put the chances of seeing at least one storm, either overhead or near distance, in those three days.

Emphasise as ever, this is based on the one GFS run only (not UKMO, ECM et al).

And before I get the biased label thrown at me, the only reason the SE quadrant is red/pink is due to the risk of imports which tend to be large and cover a much more expansive area than home growns...colours do not reflect extremity of storms in any way (got to get the caveats out of the way first lol)

Thanks Harry, :)I see I've a reasonable chance lol

I must admit that funnily enough I've done all those things you mentioned and that explains why I never get a storm. :lol:

[Coast]

Oh okay then, i can only really read gfs/ECM/ukmo charts and don't really know what anything else says, I spose we will have to wait untill Sunday to know the positioning?

Or Monday when you get a big flash and bang overhead (or not!!)

[Staffordshire]

Absolutely! Especially for the newbies, please please please note that many a time we've seen ramping potential to have it dashed little the morning of the 'event'.

However, can the plume shift westwards? It most certainly can - will it? Haven't the foggiest.

Thanks to you to Harry! I've only really got into weather the past year or so, and I'm still a teenager starting of my GCSE's next year so haven't really got time to learn with all the revision! And extra classes after school

[Harry]

Oh okay then, i can only really read gfs/ECM/ukmo charts and don't really know what anything else says, I spose we will have to wait untill Sunday to know the positioning?

Indeedy doody! Plumes are easily nudged away.

The most accurate method, unfortunately, is firstly waiting for the muggy air and heat to arrive.

Next stage will be to watch for Altocumulus Castellanus clouds which are a commonly useful precursor.

Then it's down to radar watching and sky gazing.

Furthermore, based on the current charts, storms could initiate at anytime of day and night, if the plume came off.

Edited June 23, 2011 by Harry

[Staffordshire]

Yeah didn't we have a plume back in April/May?

[Biggin]

Keeping in the spirit of the nationwide theme, based on the 06z GFS this is my VERY BRIEF, VAGUE, quick ensemble of storm risk from 12z Sunday to 00z on Wednesday. This is where I put the chances of seeing at least one storm, either overhead or near distance, in those three days.

Emphasise as ever, this is based on the one GFS run only (not UKMO, ECM et al).

And before I get the biased label thrown at me, the only reason the SE quadrant is red/pink is due to the risk of imports which tend to be large and cover a much more expansive area than home growns...colours do not reflect extremity of storms in any way (got to get the caveats out of the way first lol)

Harry I happen to notice you dont have the Lundy Islands on your forecast which is very unfair and selfish of you. I may have to throw something out of the pram. As things stand I shall inform the puffins to avoid high ground for the period.

Anyways thanks for the map. looking forward to the weekend / Mon Tues

[Harry]

Thanks Harry, :)I see I've a reasonable chance lol

I must admit that funnily enough I've done all those things you mentioned and that explains why I never get a storm. :lol:

I have my fingers crossed for you as ever JL

I hope that many people be affected by the plume if it comes off! They are by far my most favourite weather event of the year as they bring hot and humid weather (which I love) on top of the potential for big, far reaching storms...living in the SE, we normally get these nights at least a few times a year, while others often miss out!

Fingers crossed

I hope on subsequent runs of the models the pink zone spreads more widely

:rofl: ...referring to the little 06z GFS storm risk chart naturally

Yeah didn't we have a plume back in April/May?

We did - indeed someone filmed a cracking storm in the Staffordshire area I believe (was it you?)

Although that said it wasn't a traditional Spanish plume...in a Spanish plume, warm air advects from the Iberian peninsula region which provides much more instability.

[Staffordshire]

Wasn't me, I'm stormless here, one day after that on a satarday I belive we were meant to have a very active day here, but it didn't get going which was disapointing.

[john175]

good afternoon ladies and gents,how are we all. have to say the storm potential for me is pretty low,but im still excited about what COULD happen .

i cant read the charts you guys have been posting(i am tying to learn though) but all those pretty colours for you guys down south makes me quite jealous if im honest lol.

i wouldnt mind some pretty colours up my way but you never know eh

[Staffordshire]

Where are you john?

[john175]

Where are you john?

im in edinburgh,probably the worst place i have lived for storms.

[Costa Del Fal]

Dont want to be a party pooper but id be careful at how excited some may get. Yes the cape but looks good but some high convective inhibition has been shown especially in the South East with this less so the further North and West you go. Im certainly not ruling out storms but just because there is massive Cape does not mean storms for certain at all.

[knocker]

I wouldn't have said the CIN was that high on the 12z but does just touch the SE. At the moment I can't quite marry up the CAPE with the fax chart unless much convergence on the fronral system.

Edit. One ML CAPE is for Tues.:unsure:

Edited June 23, 2011 by weather ship

[Harry]

I can't believe the charts have UPGRADED!!!!!

LI of -12 is high for the States!!!! Lol

[Staffordshire]

I'm awfully confused any offer me some help?... Is this tundery weather coming from a Spanish plume or from the cold air coming from the Atlantic?! or both and what days are we looking at?

[Coast]

If this pans out we must be talking about an element of danger to the public with storms like these?