El Gordo! - Spanish Plume Thunderstorm Discussion

[paul m]

National lottery springs to mind IT COULD BE YOU.....

[Summer Sun]

Before people start getting excited,

GFS aint showing much rain around

[Static Prevails]

I don't want to get too excited to avoid disappointment, but wow!

Tuesday, although FI when it comes to convection is just a pure porn chart!

Before people start getting excited,

GFS aint showing much rain around

I'd imagine that they'd start showing more closer to the time. From my experience GFS normally does this.

Edited June 23, 2011 by IAmJohnnyDisco

[Costa Del Fal]

I wouldn't have said the CIN was that high on the 12z but does just touch the SE. At the moment I can't quite marry up the CAPE with the fax chart unless much convergence on the fronral system.

Edit. One ML CAPE is for Tues.:unsure:

Extreme values certainly being shown. Really could go band in Central and Eastern England. Probably wont be quite as good as shown now and we still have the UKMO which is being a spoilsport.

[Neilsouth]

If this pans out we must be talking about an element of danger to the public with storms like these?

LOL

[Harry]

Before people start getting excited,

GFS aint showing much rain around

Indeed, even if those insane values actually came off we still need a trigger! A thundery surface low (which certainly looks conceivable) would probably do the trick, yet nevertheless one must remain cautious!

High CAPE/Low LI figures do not necessarily mean storms!

[Lauren]

Wouldn't it be hilarious if we woke up Monday morning and the storm potential had totally faded or buggered off back to France?

No?

[Harry]

Wouldn't it be hilarious if we woke up Monday morning and the storm potential had totally faded or buggered off back to France?

No?

Quite right....no it wouldn't <_<

[knocker]

I'm awfully confused any offer me some help?... Is this tundery weather coming from a Spanish plume or from the cold air coming from the Atlantic?! or both and what days are we looking at?

This may help from Ewen McCallum (Brings back memories, he was once chairman of a board I sat). You could say from both.

There has been a lot of talk about warm weather expected across parts of England again this weekend. Temperatures are forecast to reach the mid to high 20′s C on Friday and into the weekend, bringing the risk of thundery showers for some. It has been reported that a ‘Spanish Plume’ is responsible for this. Here, Ewen McCallum, Met Office Chief Meteorologist explains what a ‘Spanish Plume’ is?

‘Spanish Plume’ is actually a rather catchy name for a rather complex meteorological phenomenon which leads to warm conditions and heavy showers or thunderstorms over parts of the UK and north-west Europe.

As the name suggests it is a plume of very warm air that pushes north from the Spanish plateau and reaches the British Isles on a southerly airflow. Of course over the UK we are normally affected by much cooler Atlantic air as cold fronts encroach from the west. Now when these two air masses meet, the very warm ‘plume’ air is forced to rise vigorously over the cooler Atlantic air and as a result produces thunderstorms. Because these features can cover large areas the storms are often grouped together and can give widespread, heavy rainfall, often accompanied by hail.

http://metofficenews...-spanish-plume/

Indeed, even if those insane values actually came off we still need a trigger! A thundery surface low (which certainly looks conceivable) would probably do the trick, yet nevertheless one must remain cautious!

High CAPE/Low LI figures do not necessarily mean storms!

Or the cold front?

Edited June 23, 2011 by weather ship

[dave48]

The models are now well set on this hot little spell with some (GFS/ECMWF) showing a better thundery breakdown than others (UKMO).

A good run from the GFS this evening. Obviously we still don't know where if anywhere the best thundery activity will be.

GFS has got the DP's way too high as usual, so no real chance of any CAPE values higher than 2000 J/kg.

Also worth noting that GFS may continue to over do the dew points right up until the actual day(s). But a sounding on the day will show the extent to which they are out. If the UKMO outlook is realised then the flatter trough will only bring thundery potential to the SE.

An easterly shift is likely, but a shift in any direction is possible. Hopefully widespread storms and a more westerly shift.

Edit: Just to add on, some talk about supercells and CAPE, 500J/kg is quite sufficient if the other conditions are supportive. The current output certainly shows a well sheared environment supportive of storm organisation

Edited June 23, 2011 by dave48

[NUT]

Even I am staggered at the cape/li suggested for the south east come Tuesday. I know it will be downgraded and with it being so high doesn't guarantee storms but if it all did come off....there would possibly be some serious beasties around

[Mesoscale]

Whoa! I would give up thunderstorms for the rest of the year if those values came off...... nah not really! haha

I cant help but get a little bit excited even though I know I will most likely be dissapointed. even if half of what its showing now came off then I think alot of us will be very happy in deed.

[weatherobsuk]

Throwing in my $5, high-based elevated storms would give little in the way of convection. Especially so with 3000kj of CAPE (projected) swarming around for the inflows to feed off from. Any precip associated with the plume i'd imagine would come from mid-level Ac Cas than the Tcu/CB themselves.

[knocker]

Throwing in my $5, high-based elevated storms would give little in the way of convection.

Not sure what you mean by this? Why would they necessarily be high based with high DPs and with forced convection from the cold front?

[Chris K]

Shame I'm down at Newquay in Cornwall Monday evening and don't return until Tuesday afternoon to Bristol. Not that Bristol has much predicted for it at the moment anyway... (fingers crossed for a shift westwards maybe?) haha.

The last main storm we had here was a few years back when we had for lightning that lasted for over 4 hours at least. Would love to see something like that again sometime. Think I better bribe mother nature somehow.

[Supercell 89]

Don't think i've ever seen such high CAPE values forecast in the UK in this sort of time frame, in fact don't think i've ever seen them this high!

Certain for some very large hail with any storms that fire up in this set-up, i dare say there could possibly, possibly be some S-storms, i'm not saying the word as i don't want to jynx it . I do still think this upcoming spell does have similarities with the 1/2nd July 1968 storms.

Be interesting to see how it pans out.

[Jane Louise]

And if these storms do come about I expect to see all members of the No storms club leave with a big smile on their face :lol: ( I better not be in there anymore either).

[Staffordshire]

Very much doubt a shift westwards mire likely to shift eastwards...

[paul m]

And if these storms do come about I expect to see all members of the No storms club leave with a big smile on their face :lol: ( I better not be in there anymore either).

Well you do make us feel welcome in there

[weatherobsuk]

I'm thinking high updraughts forcing convection rather than shear initiated. The DPs remain aloft within the cloud base keeping the 'deck' above 2000ft and the dry air to the surface as the cells move through. The forcing convection creating the updraughts is whats keeping the moisture aloft enough to hold the rain/hail content while at the same time giving off the spectacular IC/CC displays were all craving for.

[Alex95]

The ECM is going for a second hot spell at the end of the week after a couple of cooler days - although the uppers are much lower, sunshine would allow temperatures to widely reach 25°C, and after a few days somewhere could reach 30°C. I'm confident that France / Benelux will see some severe storms early next week, but its touch and go whether they reach the UK. There was a similar setup when I was in Belgium a few years ago - records were smashed there (39°C I think!) with severe storms in the evening, but back in the UK it was a near miss as everything was shifted eastwards. Having said that, I would love to see a storm like that again, even though it would probably only affect the SE. The dewpoints hit 24°C in Belgium that day for the record, it was the 19th August 2009.

[Mesoscale]

12PM on tuesday looks DEADLY!! haha

Has anyone got the devils number? ive got something to sell him....

nah i wouldnt sell my soul for one day of huge thunderstorms.... wait!

[Staffordshire]

12PM on tuesday looks DEADLY!! haha

Has anyone got the devils number? ive got something to sell him....

nah i wouldnt sell my soul for one day of huge thunderstorms.... wait!

Post a map for it?

[Andy Bown]

It's exactly 6 years ago tomorrow (also Friday 24 June) that a slow moving Cold Front collided with hit air over the West Country

to bring a series of stunning thunderstorms between 04.00 - 14.00! There were 9 separate storms of high intensity, it was the

day that the Glastonbury pyramid stage got struck by a CG if anyone remembers it happening?

That was the single best storm day I have experienced and it happened in a not too dissimilar set up to what may happen early next

week. Is it too much to hope that the progged Cold Front will be equally as slow moving and explosive next week!?

[Tom D]

Post a map for it?

This is easily the best Cape/LI chart I've seen in my life. Bloody hell it could be good on Monday and Tuesday...

I'm going to Leicester next week and it looks like my home county of Hertfordshire might do very well from this. Will be keeping an eye on this over the weekend.