El Gordo! - Spanish Plume Thunderstorm Discussion

[Guest]

Saved that to my pictures folder, some stunning eye candy on offer once more by the CAPE/LI charts. Just imagine...........mmmm...chaos

[Staffordshire]

A shift west please...

[lewisosd]

Right thats it, i'm booking Tuesday off. This looks like it is gonna be amazing. Late night Tuesday aswell. A chance to get some great lightning shots hopefully.

[knocker]

I'm thinking high updraughts forcing convection rather than shear initiated. The DPs remain aloft within the cloud base keeping the 'deck' above 2000ft and the dry air to the surface as the cells move through. The forcing convection creating the updraughts is whats keeping the moisture aloft enough to hold the rain/hail content while at the same time giving off the spectacular IC/CC displays were all craving for.

The deep layer shear and a quite impressive TT index for Tuesday.. Of course all of this is quite ridiculous as it's only Thursday. Where will the cold front be for a start?

Edited June 23, 2011 by weather ship

[Hathers]

That cape is going to shift west. Fingers crossed. I want my first thunderstorm of the year.

[Staffordshire]

Right thats it, i'm booking Tuesday off. This looks like it is gonna be amazing. Late night Tuesday aswell. A chance to get some great lightning shots hopefully.

Where do you live buddy?

[tomp456]

I'm not hating or anything like that but I really think NW should do away with that god damn will it thunder. For my location, a 51% chance of something monday/night. One model run/update later a grand 0%. I'm not happy, in fact I'm quite sad! Oh well, GFS is stil looking pretty darn sexy for monday/tuesday.

[Mesoscale]

Saved that to my pictures folder, some stunning eye candy on offer once more by the CAPE/LI charts. Just imagine...........mmmm...chaos

I saved it too under the name Apocalypse haha

EDIT: is everyone prepared to be dissapointed with the next model run?

Edited June 23, 2011 by Mesoscale

[Guest]

is everyone prepared to be dissapointed with the next model run?

[Harry]

Very much doubt a shift westwards mire likely to shift eastwards...

It all depends on the behaviour of the trough progged to be sat west of the UK. The subtlest of re-orientations of the Low alone could change the odds entirely - either in favour of the West, or shunt all this cause for excitement east of the UK entirely.

While it is common for such features to get shunted eastwards over time, it is not that rare for plumes to spread further west than initially projected either. In fact, if I recall last year, the one single proper plume event there was took a last minute ditch westwards, reserving thunderstorms for C/S England and western regions of the SE along with parts of the SW, whereas initially it was progged pretty much as is now.

Edited June 23, 2011 by Harry

[Staffordshire]

So if it travels slower it will be more widespread and if the low spreads fast it will be for the east?

Edited June 23, 2011 by Staffordshire

[A.J]

"models....hmm...it doesnt matter what kind of model your talking about, they're all the same...CAPE models, L.I models, Dew Point models, Storm Risk models, GFS/ECM/UKMO models, Cat-walk supermodels, Bra&Panty models, even page 3 models....they look all appealing, show off their assets, tantalize your mind with suggestion, offer glimpses of your wildest fantasies & then just when you think you're in with half a chance, they totally blow you out and reality sets in! "

:lol:

I would sincerely like to add that I hope the part in qoutes does not come to pass !!!

Edited June 24, 2011 by shuggee

[Harry]

So if it travels slower it will be more widespread and if the low spreads fast it will be for the east?

Correct

The plume is like a rain on a windscreen and the cold front is the wiper.

The progress of the CF however is not necessarily in tune with the behaviour of the LP system. For example, the LP system could move much closer with the CF still trailing in the atlantic...it's dependant on both the location of the LP system and it's orientation. If it becomes more elongated vertically, the plume has a better chance of spreading west. If it's orientated more SW/NE the more likely it will shunt east - hence why the models are so subject to change and it is notoriously difficult to predict plumes.

[mountain shadow]

A wee teaser from Dundee. A taste of things to come down south?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LKLdXJpOhVQ

[Love Snow]

Trust me love events like this and im flying out on Holiday at 7am tuesday morning

[DanN]

The MetO fax for Monday has the cold front moving across by 12pm, which I would imagine to spoil some of the party on Tuesday if that ends up correct. This would surely leave us in a westerly flow and cooler temps with any real moisture getting cut off? Hopefully not though!

[Harry]

The MetO fax for Monday has the cold front moving across by 12pm, which I would imagine to spoil some of the party on Tuesday if that ends up correct. This would surely leave us in a westerly flow and cooler temps with any real moisture getting cut off? Hopefully not though!

The FAX chart has been like that all day...hopefully, when it updates it'll shuffle further west.

Based on the latest BBC forecast it sounds as if they might finally be on board...28C for London on Sunday now and humid...no hint of the T word yet though (rather unsurprisingly)

Edited June 23, 2011 by Harry

[DanN]

Here comes the 18Z GFS - who's looking first!

[Harry]

Here comes the 18Z GFS - who's looking first!

So far, up to 81 hours ahead, intensity seems to be remaining but slight eastward nudge hinted (approx 50 miles so far).

So Monday 15z, much of the intensity is still there, especially over France where it appears there has been a slight UPGRADE further...slight decrease here and nudge towards the east (so far)

Well...so far, for our critical period, it's still VERY POSITIVE overall!

The 18z has pushed the CF through by Tuesday reducing drastically any potential for Tuesday/Wednesday. However, it has in almost no way reduced the CAPE or LI's for Sunday and in particular Monday and there is still potential for amazing storms!

So, in summary - slightly further East at the moment. Slightly narrower timeframe for storms. However, CAPE/LIs remain virtually unchanged. I hope however, the earlier models will bring it back west tomorrow (as happened today) while maintaing the phenomenal statistics.

Edited June 23, 2011 by Harry

[Costa Del Fal]

Tuesdays potential will be gone for most on this 18z output im sure( And Im right Im afraid!). Seems to be falling in line with the UKMO & ECM now sadly but could still change. Heat just hanging onto the Midlands and South East on Monday on the 18z GFS. There is one upgrade on this run... the Greenland High.

Edited June 23, 2011 by Blizzards

[DanN]

So far, up to 81 hours ahead, intensity seems to be remaining but slight eastward nudge hinted (approx 50 miles so far).

So Monday 15z, much of the intensity is still there, especially over France where it appears there has been a slight UPGRADE further...slight decrease here and nudge towards the east (so far)

Yep, still looking good for Monday anyway. Any other time we would be happy with that output but that's been dwarfed by recent runs for Tuesday etc!

[knocker]

Downplaying it on Monday but East Anglia hanging in there. Move to France.

[Harry]

REALITY CHECK REALITY CHECK!!!

IT'S ONE RUN! Two/three runs today were superb, this latest is SLIGHTLY (emphasising the word slightly!) less good.

But, on balance still some amazing indicators at the moment.

[DanN]

Bit of a downgrade for Tuesday as well, back to what previous runs were earlier in the week (still not bad!). GFS still has the cold front further west than the UKMO as well (not a lot of difference though)

Edited June 23, 2011 by danuk

[dave48]

Another good run. This is is a little bit more realistic though. The east shift this run as I mentioned might happen and others too earlier. Hopefully it stays there but a westerly shift would be nice.