El Gordo! - Spanish Plume Thunderstorm Discussion

[Coast]

Most seem to be forgetting how these things usually play out and so once again getting too excited !

I think you're right, but the current outlook is exciting to follow with (at this stage) a still uncertain finale that may bring the kind of storms many in the forum are dreaming of. Equaly it could be a big flop but at the moment, I'm enjoying this first date - without any expectations of a coffee back at her place.....

[Guest]

Most seem to be forgetting how these things usually play out and so once again getting too excited !

Significant activity over France such as the 'heat low' shown on some charts will result in a large MCS with huge cloud overspill to it's NE - many times this kills insolation the following day and so nothing happens.

I'm not saying 'no storms' but am saying keep some perspective on it all.

[knocker]

Obscene CAPE and LIs progged by GFS over France early next week, though the model notoriously overdoes dew points and thus CAPE. Funny the near continent's so close yet has a far better deal for severe storms, but it is so expensive and time consumming to make the 22 mile leap across the Channel to make a chase feasible. Sometimes I wish there was no sea in between, but most the time I'm glad there is!

I see what you mean. Still no doubt we'll get a light shower.

[Lauren]

I'm not going to think about getting excited until Sunday.

[Paul Sherman]

Obscene CAPE and LIs progged by GFS over France early next week, though the model notoriously overdoes dew points and thus CAPE. Funny the near continent's so close yet has a far better deal for severe storms, but it is so expensive and time consumming to make the 22 mile leap across the Channel to make a chase feasible. Sometimes I wish there was no sea in between, but most the time I'm glad there is!

It makes me laugh though Nick, you would think 4 people would car share and get together even for a 2 day trip, it really would not cost a lot to split the ferry, Petrol and lodgings.

There is even a Euro thread in the Stormchasers section on Ukww but no-one seems interested on their eiether

[Harry]

It makes me laugh though Nick, you would think 4 people would car share and get together even for a 2 day trip, it really would not cost a lot to split the ferry, Petrol and lodgings.

There is even a Euro thread in the Stormchasers section on Ukww but no-one seems interested on their eiether

I've got Monday off work now so will be, subject to charts nearer the time, rooting myself to the Kent coast at Dymchurch - standing on the sea front watching things develop. Maybe a bacardi/vodka three while I'm at it

[*Stormforce~beka*]

I think the main problem with the France trip is getting time off work as people say. As its always short notice. I have just flown in last night from a week in Portugal. 36c out there at times. Looking forward to a storm fest if it transpires. I would so be up for a trip annoying thing is I go back to work on Monday! LOL.

[Coast]

so, first thing Monday morning, GFS currently say:

The direction it's coming from is still looking good

I know, I know!!!! just one run, not matching like run to run, FI etc etc. :unsure: I'm looking at trends and possibilities and nothing more than keeping my fingers crossed as the days pass by.

Again just for fun, this one caught my eye earlier - fancy some of this then Sussex/Kent?

[Harry]

Really wouldn't rule out Tuesday just yet either...

I would say based on the current FAX chart (which I've heard bounded around by more of the pessimists the last few days as being the more reliable at this stage), there is the potential for some decent thunderstorm development in the SE corner and anywhere along the CF.

Cold air advancing behind the cold front originating from semi-polar regions. The surface low to our SE (or over us) will be pulling in some very hot/humid air. There are also numerous convergence zone opportunities for home grown events in addition.

Failing all the above, there is STILL potential for the CF to stall...I cannot believe some of the rhetoric beginning to creep in here.

Even further north there are signs on Sunday for CAPE higher than it has been all year - hot, humid air. Even if temperatures are ONLY 22-24C, that is more than sufficient to spark off some wicked storms. In fact, some of the best storms I've seen here in recent years have developed on 22-25C days as opposed to the 30C+ days.

I would steer clear from relying solely on CAPE/LI charts.

Edited June 24, 2011 by Harry

[weatherobsuk]

How is the wifi coverage out there in France? i'm assuming for any Brits wanting to chase it'd be a case of following your logics and hoping for the best, given much of the motorways in France around the North (especially Germany) are forest-lined.

The best places for photogenic shots would be around Nantes/Bourges. This comes mainly from years of experience having summer holidays on the continent and knowing France like the back of my hand, it is tempting to chase in France but another consideration are the motorway-tolls adding yet more cost onto the journey (aswell as hampering chase speeds, given its peak season currently on the roads.)

Personally my best bet would be to head to the SE coast. For imports Gravesend or Lydd, for homegrowns Maidstone or Cantebury.

[Harry]

How is the wifi coverage out there in France? i'm assuming for any Brits wanting to chase it'd be a case of following your logics and hoping for the best, given much of the motorways in France around the North (especially Germany) are forest-lined.

The best places for photogenic shots would be around Nantes/Bourges. This comes mainly from years of experience having summer holidays on the continent and knowing France like the back of my hand, it is tempting to chase in France but another consideration are the motorway-tolls adding yet more cost onto the journey (aswell as hampering chase speeds, given its peak season currently on the roads.)

Personally my best bet would be to head to the SE coast. For imports Gravesend or Lydd, for homegrowns Maidstone or Cantebury.

(South East region post - apologies but I am unable to comment on good viewing places outside of my region)

IMO, anywhere along the North Downs or coastline would be perfect. There's a pretty decent viewing point up in West Kingsdown which is on the N Downs (near the great big antenna ). Bluebell Hill is another along the Downs, offering terrific views. Detling Hill is another. Failing that, St Mary's Bay, round to Camber and Beachy Head, all would offer fantastic views. Even if your slightly too far West (as we all may be, you never know) there should be potential for capturing some decent shots.

My biggest hang up from a photography point of view, is the high DPs and possible MCS nature of any storms we may get. During plume events, storms are often surrounded by thick murk due to the humidity. High DPs are only likely to enhance the murky effect with lower cloud bases more likely and torrential rain.

As for Coast's recent chart post, hummana hummana hummana!!! Showing more shear than I was expecting to be honest.

Edited June 24, 2011 by Harry

[weatherobsuk]

Looking at the charts if enough lift can be initiated (haven't seen the soundings so i'm unsure of the trigger temp yet) there could even be some homegrown cells overnight Sunday into Monday. Remarkable temps going 23'c-19'c throughout the night into the South and Midlands.

[Arron]

If I lived close to the tunnel/ferry port I'd probably end up spending most weekends off chasing through the summer. Like Paul said you only need 3 or 4 to bring the cost right down

I'm all the way over in West Wales myself, but I think I'm going to head across the country to try and catch something if things hold out You can't just sit and wait for these things to come to you!

[Norfolk Sheep]

(South East region post - apologies but I am unable to comment on good viewing places outside of my region)

IMO, anywhere along the North Downs or coastline would be perfect. There's a pretty decent viewing point up in West Kingsdown which is on the N Downs (near the great big antenna ). Bluebell Hill is another along the Downs, offering terrific views. Detling Hill is another. Failing that, St Mary's Bay, round to Camber and Beachy Head, all would offer fantastic views. Even if your slightly too far West (as we all may be, you never know) there should be potential for capturing some decent shots.

My biggest hang up from a photography point of view, is the high DPs and possible MCS nature of any storms we may get. During plume events, storms are often surrounded by thick murk due to the humidity. High DPs are only likely to enhance the murky effect with lower cloud bases more likely and torrential rain.

As for Coast's recent chart post, hummana hummana hummana!!! Showing more shear than I was expecting to be honest.

And failing that, there's always the Cromer Ridge (92m ASL)

I'm inclined to agree about the murk possibility - the June 2009 storms were just a big heap of grey (occasionally black) clouds with pink lightning that sears your eyeballs but rarely visible as a CG/CC. One day I'll manage to capture a blurred and distant lightning strike...

[Biggin]

Current forecast for my area (BR4) Monday, so little rain.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=stormforecast;page=4;type=storm;ct=~BR4;sess=#forecast

[Coast]

Beachy Head

As for Coast's recent chart post, hummana hummana hummana!!! Showing more shear than I was expecting to be honest.

I'm sure some positive vibes can be sent through this forum into the troposphere to assist!

If I lived close to the tunnel/ferry port I'd probably end up spending most weekends off chasing through the summer. Like Paul said you only need 3 or 4 to bring the cost right down

http://www.eurotunnel.com/uk/tickets/

[Arron]

Bargain Coast!, Shame it takes me 6 hours to get to the tunnel and about £150 in fuel there and back I need to move closer!

[Harry]

Bargain Coast!, Shame it takes me 6 hours to get to the tunnel and about £150 in fuel there and back I need to move closer!

Yeah I'd say...mind you you could also stop off at the Kent coast...Monday night/Tues morning at the moment looking ripe! If worst case scenario happens and all keeps over the continent there should be some awesome photo opportunities.

[Nick F]

It makes me laugh though Nick, you would think 4 people would car share and get together even for a 2 day trip, it really would not cost a lot to split the ferry, Petrol and lodgings.

There is even a Euro thread in the Stormchasers section on Ukww but no-one seems interested on their eiether

You're right, it's certainly plausible if we can get enough people together to make it cheap enough, though it appears getting sufficient interested, getting a plan into action and the time out to do it is the stumbling block. I do have Monday and Tuesday off anyway, but will probably have to stick this side of the Channel - maybe go for a chase if one of those days looks good for it.

[Coast]

I'd like to take the trip but Miss Shoreline is in hospital from early Tuesday morning and I've really got to stick around Sussex. Mind you, I will be out and about so may bump into some of you storm watchers along the coast!

[Paul Sherman]

You're right, it's certainly plausible if we can get enough people together to make it cheap enough, though it appears getting sufficient interested, getting a plan into action and the time out to do it is the stumbling block. I do have Monday and Tuesday off anyway, but will probably have to stick this side of the Channel - maybe go for a chase if one of those days looks good for it.

Watch this space but Monday and or Tuesday we could be about to test the 1st ever Live Streaming in the Uk and in Full HD As well, if you are up for it will fill you in with the details in the next few hours, it is more exciting than it sounds, also Arron will Ping you a Message on Fb later about this.

Paul S

[Supacell]

I have now booked Monday off from work and if needs must then this impromptu holiday could be extended to Tuesday.

If conditions continue to look good I shall be chasing and will head as far as Kent if that’s what I need to do to catch the best storm I can. On current output I am reckoning I could probably get something special without having to travel that far.

Current plan is to leave Sunday afternoon and take in any storms that break out over N England and the East Midlands on route towards the Cambridge area. I will then spend Monday chasing around Cambridgeshire and Norfolk before setting up for a night of storms. Great stuff!!!!

[TornadoJo]

I wanna play! I have school on Moday till 4 but I'm hoping I'll not be too far from so action anyway.

If Tuesday comes off I am so going out to play. Work? What work???????

[Guest]

Makes me wish I lived in Kent. Chance of storms here, but I might travel a little further south and east if necessary <_<

[WillinGlossop]

Am north of the Downs in Faversham.... am hoping for 32c monday and night min of 21c..... and then a nice big storm imported from France, possibly an MSC, remember a few of those in the past, such great lightening.... going to be a humid one though so off with the bedsheets.... Really looking forward to this weekend, nothing to do but enjoy the weather, have a few beers/pimms/ciders/glasses of wine, watch tennis/F1/glasto on the box....hoping for an evening (maybe sunday?) of opening the doors, swivelling the telly and watching it outside with 24-25c at 2100..... lovely....