UK convective general discussion and forecasts

[Harry]

Looking at the latest FAX chart compared with GFS, it is looking increasingly like any action will happen Saturday night into Sunday now. Low moves out of the bay of biscay, developing fronts with it briefly, before moving across S/E England overnight, clearing through Sunday. With a NW flow for Sunday, I think we can safely rule out risk of any imports or the like after Saturday night.

[Coast]

Meteogram for Sunday suggests a peak in temps Sunday afternoon around 16.00hrs but little precip. Given that this is still a way out and all based on GFS again, is Shoreham the Western most part of anything happening along the SE coast?

So much more to get through yet, but a few days of possibilities from Saturday onwards at least.

[Staffordshire]

Just need some rain here, been day after day of cloud :-(, the ground is rock hard and the grass is a browny yellow. My rain amount for the past month is in single figures.

[P-M]

I don't understand the metoffice written forecast for the NE. I thought we weren't supposed to have any thunder this weekend??

Weather forecast: North East England

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

Rather cloudy with occasional rain on Saturday. Heavy thundery rain will spread northwards later on Sunday and then continue overnight into Monday before clearing later Monday.

Can anyone shed any light on this?

P.S I know all areas say this but thought this was just a southern event?

Edited August 18, 2011 by Paul-Michael

[Lauren]

Up to 40mm forecast later according to BBC and still looking thundery for the weekend. Enjoy it folks!

[Coast]

Today's reports and forecasts are here:

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/70727-18th-aug-2011-stormconvective-forecast-discussion-and-reports/

[vortex_liam]

I can see this one turning thundery and severe,

[Coast]

06z GFS doesn't make pleasant reading for those like me hoping for weekend action

Shouldn't really look at stuff run to run as it was inevitable things would move about. Currently GFS has it a bit earlier and more to the East, but Sunday morning we will all know a lot more!!!

[P-M]

Just noticed that, i think that they should though!!!

To be honest I am confused with the Meto forecast because it says my location will have heavy thundery rain for Sunday evening and lasting in to Monday. I honestly though this was a southern event this weekend and by their warnings it would appear that way? Maybe we will find out closer the time! lol

[Coast]

Yellow Alert of Rain21 Aug 2011, 00:00

Valid From: 21 Aug 2011, 00:00

Valid To: 21 Aug 2011, 23:59

Issued at - 18 Aug 2011, 11:50

Valid from - 21 Aug 2011, 00:00

Valid to - 21 Aug 2011, 23:59

Outbreaks of heavy, thundery rain are likely, particularly overnight and during the early part of the day. The public should be aware that local flooding is possible.

The public are advised to take extra care, further information and advice can be found here: http://www.metoffice...r/uk/links.html

Looks like it could be wet at least then?

[Harry]

To be honest I am confused with the Meto forecast because it says my location will have heavy thundery rain for Sunday evening and lasting in to Monday. I honestly though this was a southern event this weekend and by their warnings it would appear that way? Maybe we will find out closer the time! lol

Well...I can't vouch for what they're seeing to be honest. It is totally at odds with GFS, which suggests possible overnight action Saturday into Sunday. Then a return to some very heavy rain moving up Monday night into Tuesday. The MetO however seem to seeing something in between those two periods......

Baffling...either way the fact that the MetO has issued an early warning has put the nail in the coffin for our thundery risk

Edited August 18, 2011 by Harry

[P-M]

Well...I can't vouch for what they're seeing to be honest. It is totally at odds with GFS, which suggests possible overnight action Saturday into Sunday. Then a return to some very heavy rain moving up Monday night into Tuesday. The MetO however seem to seeing something in between those two periods......

Baffling...either way the fact that the MetO has issued an early warning has put the nail in the coffin for our thundery risk

Hi Harry,

Yes I see that for the southern portion of England but not the northern end? What exactly are they seeing?? lol

[Harry]

Hi Harry,

Yes I see that for the southern portion of England but not the northern end? What exactly are they seeing?? lol

Gord knows....I hope they are right, let me make that clear

But, the trend on GFS is an increasingly negative one...and over the past few days, the time the charts are their most disappointing, up pops a warning from the MetO....curious to know what ECM and NAE are thinking

[Chris K]

Once again this weekends predicted thunderstorms completely gone from my area's forecast....typical. What a disappointing year (although I wouldnt want flooding so that's 1 positive!)

Looking good for the south east though on Sunday night/Monday for some potential electrical activity. Will have to see how forecasts develop over the next couple of days!

[Coast]

Debating whether to open a thread now for Saturday night into Sunday and beyond, as things are coming closer to the reliable time frame and there is still plenty to play for in the extreme South East of England!

This morning UKASF have taken the unusual step of giving a heads up for the period:

EXTENDED OUTLOOK: Particular attention is given to Saturday night onwards across parts of the country, but detail remains to be confirmed. We will issue updates nearer the time, as and when necessary.

GFS London Meteogram has knocked Sunday back considerably, but that may be just the geography; London being too far North for the action:

The RASP CAPE charts have really pushed back into France and start a little earlier on Sunday morning, but they have cranked it up over there big time:

This looks like anything that happens may well be out over the Channel at best, the Herstmonceux sounding has dropped like a stone for Sunday with 11.00hrs being the best shot at anything currently (and that isn't wonderful):

21st OWS Met Office interpretation has a strange area covered, but not the Channel coasts or that area of Northern France that has been highlighted the last few days:

KO index has also started earlier and on a more Southerly track:

Is this all going to miss England??????

Convective clouds will be there according to GFS:

Too far South?????

More than usual this is going down to the wire. If I took this last run of output I'd stay in bed Sunday, but there are still 60 odd hours to go yet - ever the optimist!!!

[staplehurst]

There is growing confidence now for the weekend - Sat night, cold front moving SEwards. Despite the fact that the models aren't indicating any precip near the SE in terms of storms, I've seen this setup before and it's quite possible that the high SSTs can spark off some storms over the Channel (rather than over the land). The cold front then moves south Sunday, and so we won't actually be in the warm, humid air as initially thought, but instead in some cooler air.

Frontal wave then returns from the south late Monday through evening and night and lasting into Tuesday. Looks quite dynamic in nature, but some storms are possible to the east of this front, say far SE/Essex etc, and it's not out of the question for embedded stuff either (similar to yesterday's).

[vortex_liam]

morning, im gunna check the charts and report back!

[Harry]

Yep that was my analysis staplehurst....recently model runs have been increasingly disappointing, with the real convective stuff looking likely to remain over France...not entirely sure what it is, but mother nature has been a nasty cow of late always seeming to throw CF or similar our way blocking the threat of thunderstorms!

The later GFS runs 18z and 00z seem to be more encouraging than 6z and 12z...not entirely sure which one to believe to be honest...I am finding it very hard to stomach seeing all that energy building along the N Coast of France and stopping short of S England.....

She's treating us all like a dialysis machine at the moment....fingers crossed she help us out

[Supacell]

One day we are going to have to get a trip to the near continent organised. I have been watching the charts all week and was willing to spend a day down in Kent to see some action. But run by run my enthusiasm is disappearing and I am not far off thinking... s0d it, lets get on that eurotunnel!

Edited August 19, 2011 by Supacell

[Coast]

TBH though, we are only talking about 20 or 30 miles further North (well for my location, NIMPYISM accepted!) and bam!!!

Just need a change in wind direction, a bit more convection on our side. Not looking wonderful its true, but you know what they say:

[snow raven]

Debating whether to open a thread now for Saturday night into Sunday and beyond, as things are coming closer to the reliable time frame and there is still plenty to play for in the extreme South East of England!

Please do Coast - I haven't had a ride on a roller coaster for a while!

[Guest Quantumsnow]

Please do Coast - I haven't had a ride on a roller coaster for a while!

You can book me in too Coast, about time for some action down here.

[Coast]

Please do Coast - I haven't had a ride on a roller coaster for a while!

You can book me in too Coast, about time for some action down here.

So many ladies, so little time......

I think you are all going to have to join me on Beachy Head or somewhere like Fairilght, Dungeness or Capel Le Ferne. If the storms don't arrive, at least we will be up for a Sunday Full English!

[chionomaniac]

As ever the carrot is being dangled off the coast of France well into next week.

[slb97]

Met Office has removed their yellow warning for Sunday now - but still showing for Monday at the moment.