UK convective general discussion and forecasts

[Raidan]

I also noticed that Michael,it's a shame we're unlikely to see anything over the weekend,I need a storm get close and get some good vids,but maybe not this close

[pinball wizard]

Going by the 12z today it looks like it may sadly be quiet on the storm front until monday evening where there is the possibility of some thundery rain spreading up from the south to afffect E.Sussex and Kent

[Harry]

It is enfuriatingly pants, bar some potentially thundery rain Monday night/Tuesday night!

Every time the heat and humidity try to push towards us its being buffered back over the Channel.....could change in our favour in the next day or two mind!

[Dom W]

Starting to chuck it down here - from some very dark based clouds, all be it quite high up.

[Sprites]

The U.K. is too far North and West to join in with the continental storms, in most set-ups.

The altocumulus is tracking from the N.W ,we need to see these from the south, still another month or so left of the summer plume season.

[Paul]

If you are a bit storm starved, don't forget our first Arizona lightning tour has just started, and the team have already bagged some impressive lightning, dust devils and even a haboob (dust storm)

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/70738-reports-pictures-chase-day-2-arizona/

[staplehurst]

There has been a lot of high-based frontal stuff recently, primarily caused by warm continental air very close by (the 564 dam has been very close for several weeks to the south of us) whilst dry continental and occasional polar/arctic air has been present in the lower levels. Warm, moist air keeps getting advected northwards from the tropics with each weather system, it gets lifted above the dry air and so any frontal boundaries become primarily high-based (such as yesterday over C + S Eng, and today over Ireland/N Ireland).

[Chris K]

Ugh, the "heavy thundery rain" that was forecast to hit my area monday night has now all shifted East in the forecasts and now i'm forecasted "cloud"....story of 2011.

Next interesting time now really is what the GFS is showing for cape/li values next week on thursday/friday....but I know it'll vanish by the time we get to a day or two before.

[ZONE 51]

But as you know the models take us for a rocky ride everytime theres a storm risk o: they wave it in front of us to make us excited then woof it gone. it could be back further west later.

[IanR]

The U.K. is too far North and West to join in with the continental storms, in most set-ups.

Thats true, but those set ups that allow widespread storms over the uk on a plume where a lot more regular in years gone by and not rare at all

something has changed the last 3 or 4 years, now they are rare, and if you are a storm lover its not good news for the future (IMO)

[Coast]

Big spike of activity for today on this London Meteogram, then perhaps Tuesday and maybe Friday.

[Sprites]

I agree MCS imports were more frequent in the late 90's ,maybe just a normal variation in weather distribution through jet stream placement, if we had weather data for the last 500,000 yrs we may see patterns in trends etc.

[Chris K]

One thing though, the latest GFS charts are showing that there will be hardly any decent cape/Li values at all until Weds/Thurs/Fri when the showers come flying in. Does this mean that any electrical activity on Monday night will be confined to across the channel? There is a low amount for the south-east but elsewhere its currently just looking like a washout!

I assume cape/Li values aren't the only factors, but quite important for thunderstorms to develop? Or are we purely hoping that we get imports as they develop in France and cross over as it heads N'wards into England?

Edited August 21, 2011 by Bugganuts

[Supacell]

BBC forecasts seem keen on widespread thundery rain tomorrow. Question is are we talking rain with a few sporadic rumbles or proper storms. Would be interesting to see a proper Mcs type system move up from the continent. However CAPE is not impressive but have seen some good elevated lightning displays in times past with this set up.

[ZONE 51]

There seems to be a connection with storm imports and recent winters..

Anyway thats another thread. interesting late monday and tue am i allowed to be excited yet! its a setup that would be a flooding problem and i would think thunderbolts quite likely, and thunderstorms themselfs we wont know until we get near the evening on monday, i see the potential for a flood event, we need rain but not floods!

[Aaron]

Looks interesting, the Met Office yellow warning has extended further north, but we appear to be too far north. But these kind of set ups do often deliver nationwide thunderstorms, as stated earlier, but we'll see. Still awaiting my first proper thunderstorm since 15 June 2009 when the vast majority of England was effected by severe storms.

[chionomaniac]

After last nights bust there is still a lot to look forward to this week with potential for Wed, Thurs and Fri, with Friday having the best widespread chance of storms...so I will keep the camera primed for a little while yet!

[Jane Louise]

A bit tired today lol . Now looking forward to Friday here. It could be actually be my turn ya know.

[Coast]

Now looking forward to Friday here.

Well, with GFS being the form horse this week, Friday certainly bears some looking at as the week progresses:

Will I make another rash map with placement of a non-existent thunderstorm?

[Stuart]

Hope I see some here on the weekend

Edited August 23, 2011 by Stuart

[MP-R]

I'm not going to hold my breath on that one either.

That's fair enough. My faith is just ever so slightly restored by the prevalence of thunderstorms from a similar set up on August 7th. We'll have to see. The N-W forecast has a 76% storm chance for Friday compared to the 51% on August 7th.

[Staffordshire]

Ahhhh I guess my theory didn't work for you guys! Sorry it's been a bust for you, dosent feel so good aii? How's Thursday/Friday looking - best areas?

[todd1970]

Alex Deakin on last nights weather.."then we look to the west to see the next batch of thunderstorms move in".."so those places that missed them today (as in tuesday) will get them on wednesday"...

So that will be the whole of the UK due a thunderstorm tomorrow then ??

[DeepSnow]

Well BBC wales weather said thursday/friday showers could be thundery in nature! It will be just my luck that my area will be hit by a storm on friday as im going to Milton Keynes for the day!

[Chris K]

Not expecting anything at all for rest of this week. Bristol Channel always kills off any showers that comes in from the West, which then suddenly re-develop after theyve passed over.