Winter 2011/12

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Unbelievable, it's nearly the second week of July and nobody's sticking their necks out to forecast at least 3 feet of snow by Bonfire Night !!!

Here we go: http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

The garden's in full flow for autumn - Holly bushes are full, damsons heaving, apples swelling by the day, conkers, hawthorn, elderberry all steaming along nicely. Log delivery for the new woodburner coming next week........I'm off already. Let's hope it's a fierce one !!!

[artfularshavin]

my view on this coming winter.in the uk,,is one that will be very cold generally with some real harsh spells!,perhaps rivaling those which the countries across the continent have,i do feel ist possible we could have a winter this year like those in russia germany,and poland have...tha would be somthing rather special!.the reasons i give for this is that the atlantic.isnt that active anymore,so im feeling that high pressure will be a big player this winter,mostly witting too our north or northwest,causing huge amounts of northern blocking..with most of our weather coming from the east and north!! brrr...occasionally this will break down from the atlantic,so bring in week low pressure systems.but make no mistake the main features of this winter will be.......VERY COLD GENERALLY,PERHAPS EVEN EXTREME COLDNESS AT TIMES,EXPECT THE EAST OF THE COUNTRY TOO HAVE LARGE AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL,ALTHOUGH MOSTLY THE SNOW WILL NOT BE THE PROBLEM AS I SEE IT BEING A PRODOMINANTLY DRY WINTER,BUT WITH RECORD BREAKING TEMPS.! SO THE COLDNESS WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER,THIS IS MY VIEW ON THE WINTER AHEAD!!

[snowlover2009]

I made an autumn thread, but it got deleted, because we have 'beyond summer' thread, yet I had a poll and wanted to make the discussion different, e.g favourite part of autumn, what you like and dislike, what you would like to see, totally different to beyond summer thread.

anyway here are the cfs charts and some lrfs :

http://www.jamstec.g...orecast.html.en

http://www.cpc.ncep..../glbz700Mon.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep..../glbz700Mon.gif

I don't know which autumn, early winter I prefer best, the first one looks better for December, with a similar anomaly to last December, which is extremely uncanny, ok it is not dark red like last December but I am sure you can back me up and say a dark anomaly does not mean more extreme patterns. Of course it would mean a high possibility of extremes, but I guess weaker high pressure to the north would mean great masses of cold?

What is even more uncanny, is November is also looking distinctly cold, with the second link showing dark blues over Europe and high pressure to the north for October. I am really looking forward to September, as that is my favourite time of this forum, as people start to look towards winter, and autumn.

Apparently the second link is best:

On the second chart, would that November anomaly be cold or mild?

Can I say too, the december anomaly on the second chart looks a lot like this, do you agree:

http://www.wetterzen...00120101217.gif

Does anyone think the coming november, december period will be anything like last year, I know that it was the coldest in 100 years, but with the distinct changes of our climate these last few years with the jetstream etc, I wouldn't be surprised.

BTW I did think the second chart with december was a good chart, but the first one shows a potential scandi high stretching from scandinavia to the UK and linking to greenland?

Btw I think you should make this thread into an autumn and winter thread? You skipped Autumn, so I bet people will be making comments on it.

Edited July 7, 2011 by snowlover2009

[Backtrack]

Well one thing is for sure, if this Northern blocking sticks around until January, it will be a bloody cold one! :lol:

[P-M]

Someone on null has posted that "based on current patterns this winter looks like being less cold than the previous two maybe slightly above average".

Not sure myself as I can't read the patterns but food for thought that's for sure!

[snowlover2009]

Someone on null has posted that "based on current patterns this winter looks like being less cold than the previous two maybe slightly above average".

Not sure myself as I can't read the patterns but food for thought that's for sure!

I don't see how current patterns would have anything to do with the coming winter, it is only July. Infact we still have northern blocking as ever. The general trend is for the la nina to strengthen and weaken into late autumn/ winter. Edited July 7, 2011 by snowlover2009

[Methuselah]

It being only JULY, my own view is quite simple...No-one has any idea (other than pure guesswork, Corbynesque ideas about Solar output, ubsubstantiated claims about the imminent demise of the NAD etc. etc., etc...) whatsoever?

Come late October, and I'll start to take notice.

[reef]

Theres already a thread for this. Seen as though we're not even half way through summer yet, its a bit early to be discussing winter!