Model Output Discussion

[Costa Del Fal]

Yes, but it also shows an absence of above average temperatures for the UK and northwest Europe. http://www.cpc.ncep....s3/euT2mMon.gif

Karyo

It doesnt have to be above average temperatures to make summer month. Average temperatures with sunshine... I think that would please most of us! August still has a very strong sun dont forget.

Overall, a very decent week coming up especially after this one. West is best but most joining in on the good weather mid week onwards. Pleasant temperatures, nothing hot but warm and rather perfect imo. Make the most of this week.

[karyo]

It doesnt have to be above average temperatures to make summer month. Average temperatures with sunshine... I think that would please most of us! August still has a very strong sun dont forget.

Overall, a very decent week coming up especially after this one. West is best but most joining in on the good weather mid week onwards. Pleasant temperatures, nothing hot but warm and rather perfect imo. Make the most of this week.

I agree and personally prefer average temperatures to hot. I just posted the link to show that current CFS projections don't support a heatwave in August despite the high pressure.

Karyo

[shedhead]

The latest 96 and 120hr Exeter fax chart confirm my earlier point about cloud amounts next week, with plenty of fronts shown to be meandering around the country right through until at least Thursday.

Edited July 23, 2011 by shedhead

[Geordiesnow]

GFS 18Z has a marginally different orientation to the high, so perhaps some sunshine for most on Tuesday/Wednesday with Thursday being cloudier with a weak front heading from West to East.

I think cloud amounts could be a little difficult to predict this week(with the exception on Monday where it looks cloudier with light rain in Western areas) so keep an eye on the forecasts and more importantly the skies! But a warmer settled week is on the cards.

[mushymanrob]

just when the ukmo gets onboard, the gfs and ecm throw a major spanner in the works. after thursdays weakening frontal system, pressure was initially expected to rise from the azh across the country next weekend resulting in a decent warm/hot spell. this mornings spanner however is yet another trough drifting in off the atlantic and heading right over us. so.... its now looking like a continuation of this summers patter, trough/ridge/trough/ridge.... will things imrove in the next few days?... tbh i doubt it, and the chances of a decent heatwave this summer is yet again being taken from our grasp. so near yet so far

[bluearmy]

just when the ukmo gets onboard, the gfs and ecm throw a major spanner in the works. after thursdays weakening frontal system, pressure was initially expected to rise from the azh across the country next weekend resulting in a decent warm/hot spell. this mornings spanner however is yet another trough drifting in off the atlantic and heading right over us. so.... its now looking like a continuation of this summers patter, trough/ridge/trough/ridge.... will things imrove in the next few days?... tbh i doubt it, and the chances of a decent heatwave this summer is yet again being taken from our grasp. so near yet so far

if it does 'slip away, it did seem to get closer than earlier 'teases'. in which case, maybe the next effort will deliver ?? awaiting the 00z ecm ens with great interest. the 00z op run T240 was out of 500mb range of the 12z spreads yesterday. (mind you, the 12z london epsgram wasnt that special re temps though pretty dry)

[shedhead]

just when the ukmo gets onboard, the gfs and ecm throw a major spanner in the works. after thursdays weakening frontal system, pressure was initially expected to rise from the azh across the country next weekend resulting in a decent warm/hot spell. this mornings spanner however is yet another trough drifting in off the atlantic and heading right over us. so.... its now looking like a continuation of this summers patter, trough/ridge/trough/ridge.... will things imrove in the next few days?... tbh i doubt it, and the chances of a decent heatwave this summer is yet again being taken from our grasp. so near yet so far

Indeed Rob, warmer for sure this week and certainly drier as a whole, but it's all relative and if this week was following a period of fine, sunny weather I think it would probably be being viewed in a rather different light. Cloud amounts look to be the main problem, especially in the west/southwest, which now appears as if it could pretty dull right through the week. Central and eastern areas do look somewhat better, but with the way things have gone so far both recently and across the summer in general you wouldn't want to bet that this mornings general worsening doesn't continue on subsequent runs... well I certainly wouldn't.

Edited July 24, 2011 by shedhead

[TonyH]

Whatever happens a broadly fine and at times warm week ahead. Variable cloud with some sunny days and others cloudier but virtually dry. Its pleasant enough already this weekend for many before any possible influence of the high, even if that influence is exerted rather less than previously indicated by the models.

Edited July 24, 2011 by Tonyh

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Better news that the ECM mean from the 0z runs is nowhere near as gruesome as the operational.

The mean isn';t fantastic but very little in the way of rain i'd have thought.

[shedhead]

Better news that the ECM mean from the 0z runs is nowhere near as gruesome as the operational.

The mean isn';t fantastic but very little in the way of rain i'd have thought.

Yes, definately does not look wet. However with a fetch off of the Atlantic for almost the entire run, temperatures and sunshine should be near average for most, with the brightest and warmest weather in the east.

[Summer Sun]

ECM still look's awful for the north next weekend,

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

[Gibby]

Good morning.

GFS has reverted to showing a longer spell of winds between North and West this morning. A lot of dry weather would occur in association with a ridge of high pressure just to the west with very weak troughs occasionally moving south in the flow, notably tomorrow giving some light rain or light showers in western regions. Humidities will be quite high at times with temperatures above normal in the sunny spells, especially in the SE. Further out and pressure remains slack or low to the east with low pressure trundling over the UK from off the Atlantic with time with some rain or showers about with temperatures reverting to nearer normal values.

UKMO this morning also maintains winds from a Northerly quarter throughout its run with a lot of dry weather with variations in cloud cover the big issue through the period rather than rainfall. In fact, apart from tomorrow when western regions might see some light rain and Thursday when the North might see some from a weak trough much of the 6 days will be dry with some sunny spells and relatively warm conditions where these occur.

ECM has become less summery in the last 24hrs with high pressure held further to the southwest maintaining something of a northerly or slack flow across the UK. This would result in quite a lot of dry weather still with variable and sometimes large amounts of cloud and eventually rain or showers would break out towards next weekend in association with shallow low pressure drifting into the UK from the west. The end of the run signifies a westerly flow with showery rain at times as high pressure is sited back down over the Azores and Greenland.

Since yesterday morning things look slightly less summery longer term. This coming week shows things much as expected so pleasant enough for most but its the longer term when the failure of high pressure being drawn close enough to the UK has caused predictions to backtrack as the door remains ajar for weak troughs and low pressure systems to move around the northern periphery of the high and down over Britain with the likelihood then of a return to showers and cooler temperatures. However, UKMO still looks quite promising ridging high pressure up to the NW by next weekend with dry bright weather and a cooling NE breeze with sunny spells.

[Aaron]

ECM still look's awful for the north next weekend,

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1681.gif

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1921.gif

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm2161.gif

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm2401.gif

Typical, just when things were going our way..

[UV-RAY]

Looks like after this week, summer settles back into what as become the default pattern all summer, Will August turn out worse than June/July, I wouldn't bet against it..

[shedhead]

06 nothing to write home about, but then again it still represents a significant improvement on what we've seen of late and that has to be a good thing. I think the pattern across the next week or so

will reflect what we see through much of August. i.e HP to the west, ensuring largely dry with temps and sunshine close to the long term average. Personally I'd take that and be grateful for it...

Edited July 24, 2011 by shedhead

[Summer Sun]

Agreed sheadhead the 06Z is much better than what we've had so far, cloud is going to be a big factor this week, by the end of the week the models show the Azores High taking control and any low pressure systems that try to make it into the uk get pushed into Greenland.

[Backtrack]

Nothing to write home about? You must be having a jape at my expense, old chap.

Towards the latter end of the run we have heights dropping over Greenland, allowing high pressure to flow into the British Isles, this persists throughout the whole run keeping things settled.

The GFS ensemble run also supports this with some reasonable agreement even out in FI.

Edited July 24, 2011 by IanM
the first version was a little agressive

[Mark Burton]

Nothing to write home about? You must be blind.

Towards the latter end of the run we have heights dropping over Greenland, allowing high pressure to flow into the British Isles, this persists throughout the whole run keeping things settled.

The GFS ensemble run also supports this with some reasonable agreement even out in FI.

I like your positive spin on things Backtrack. Im in Great Yarmouth, and today is much better than expected, it rained last night - the rain is now retreating back into the continent and yes, the sun is coming out! IMO for us, the only way is up. :yahoo:

[Eugene]

ECM 00Z OP looks an outlier to me synoptically, GFS 12Z looks closer to the mark, though cloud cover could be a factor mid week onwards with a cloudy humid airmass moving in.

[Summer Sun]

GFS 12Z is looking nice for Wednesday 20c + quite widely and Thursday maybe 25c in one or two spots, so apart from any cloud which may spoil things at times it should feel like summer once again as the week progresse.

By the end of next weekend pressure may begin to drop though this is a while away yet

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn2161.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3121.png

This is certainly a downgrade on what GFS showed this morning.

Edited July 24, 2011 by Gavin D

[Eugene]

Actually GFS 12Z in FI starts to look similar to ECM 00Z so maybe not so much an outlier afterall.

Apart from the last week July has felt very humid here so back to the usual this week ahead.

Edited July 24, 2011 by Eugene

[Cheese Rice]

A cracking GFS for certain areas.

Going by the current GFS the most favored areas are- Yorkshire, Lincolnshire, Norwhich, East Midlands and South East England.

The west looks like it may see the odd rain, but these specifics are likely to change, the bulk of England will experience fine, dry and mostly sunny weather. Areas listed above will see the warmest of the temperatures which is common in most warm spells.

Edited July 24, 2011 by Cheese Rice

[Milhouse]

A cracking GFS for certain areas.

Going by the current GFS the most favored areas are- Yorkshire, Lincolnshire, Norwhich, East Midlands and South East England.

The west looks like it may see the odd rain, but these specifics are likely to change, the bulk of England will experience fine, dry and mostly sunny weather. Areas listed above will see the warmest of the temperatures which is common in most warm spells.

The way i see things is that southern England will see the best weather with the chance of 25c shown by the GFS every day from Thursday to Sunday. We could probably add a couple of degrees to that as well. I think it could be a cracking week for the south coast which always fairs well in a light northerly around a high pressure. Eastern England could be prone to north sea low cloud which would be rather disappointing. But the south west has had to wait several years for some decent summer weather so it deserves it.

[Cheese Rice]

The NAE is poor for Yorkshire, Lincolnshire, Norwhich, East Midlands and South East England. Of course the NAE only goes out till Tuesday but temperature are a good 4/5.c cooler for the areas listed, presumably due to low cloud which will make it positively chilly.

Quite a contrast indeed.

[Summer Sun]

ECM is still keen to drop pressure into next week, if this does happen only the far south would stay warmest and maybe driest. Thankfully this is a week away yet so there is plent of time for change.