Model Output Discussion

[William of Walworth]

Publius Enigma : you are actively wanting to be massively (and innacurately!) pessimistic in your interpretations.

Check your own agenda and DOWNGRADE that please. Ta.

[Paul]

Sorry Paul, I'm talking pressure wise, and resultant airflow circulation, i.e. the latest run puts us in potentially a very warm and humid South easterly. So the temps stats shown dont stack up. Albeit they are what is shown.

So the temperatures being forecast by a major model don't count?!

In any case - here's the air pressure, and the air source isn't particularly different on any of them either, as shown by the upper air temperatures which are only milder over the far south on today's run, which on every count you've tried to use really cannot be considered an outlier.

Today:

http://nwstatic.co.u...airpressure.png

http://nwstatic.co.u.../h850t850eu.png

Yesterday

http://nwstatic.co.u...airpressure.png

http://nwstatic.co.u.../h850t850eu.png

Day before

http://nwstatic.co.u...airpressure.png

http://nwstatic.co.u.../h850t850eu.png

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

This is a classic example of a Summer High Pressure - but in the wrong place for us

note cool air moving around the high coming down from the north, having travelled over a warm sea, will be cloud

laden at low levels with light winds it will be difficult for the cloud to break. Relying more on plummeting over night

temps to disolve the cloud. After possible sunny starts. cumulus would develop but capping would lead to the cloud rapidly

spreading out into stratocumulus, and generally overall cloudy days. Again temps around the mid teens most likely.

Give it up PE, for goodness sake.

I notice you cherry picked the 240h ecm chart,what a suprise,not.

Anyway,the models this evening point to a very settled and warm week next week with temps in favoured spots into the 20's.

After the summer so far thats very very welcome from my point of view.

And,i must add much to my suprise the ukmo has backed off from its disappointing output and ecm has proved much mroe consistent.

Noted for future dexterity i might add.

[PubliusEnigma]

So the temperatures being forecast by a major model don't count?!

In any case - here's the air pressure, and the air source isn't particularly different on any of them either, as shown by the upper air temperatures which are only milder over the far south on today's run :

Today:

http://nwstatic.co.u...airpressure.png

http://nwstatic.co.u.../h850t850eu.png

Yesterday

http://nwstatic.co.u...airpressure.png

http://nwstatic.co.u.../h850t850eu.png

Day before

http://nwstatic.co.u...airpressure.png

http://nwstatic.co.u.../h850t850eu.png

I cant recall seeing charts like this on the three prior runs ?

1. If they prove correct, temps will be closer to 28 - 30oC not 22 - 23oC.

2. Had this been shown for the last sucsessive run, maybe you can explain Mushy's most recent post ?

[Paul]

I cant recall seeing charts like this on the three prior runs ?

1. If they prove correct, temps will be closer to 28 - 30oC not 22 - 23oC.

2. Had this been shown for the last sucsessive run, maybe you can explain Mushy's most recent post ?

But that's for a totally different date, you specifically said that the weather/temperature/setup on the 29th was an outlier - I was responding to that. Are you now wanting to move those particular goalposts because you're finding it impossible to back that statement up?

[PubliusEnigma]

Anyway,the models this evening point to a very settled and warm week next week

We'll see.. I hope you are right.

[snowlover2009]

It is going to be warm next week and dry and sunny, maybe the off days or so, but it will be warm at least, so please stop degrading this possibility or trying to find an excuse to believe it won't happen, get over it PE! I defended you slightly about the last chart(cool chart at 240), but it is not to worry about just yet, when the time comes, if the chart comes to reliable frame..

We'll see.. I hope you are right.

I do agree with you on Gavin he is way too optimistic on the charts, like he is seeking ever hope on it being dry and warm, when the outlook still looks bleak, so he has no room to get back at you and I notice that he underestimates them, but lets not get into that

Edited July 20, 2011 by snowlover2009

[PubliusEnigma]

But that's for a totally different date, you specifically said that the weather/temperature/setup on the 29th was an outlier - I was responding to that. Are you now wanting to move those particular goalposts because you're finding it impossible to back that statement up?

I was talking about the entire run, and formed the basis of our exchanges. Vertigo mentioned the 29th. My prior post backed up my main point

that I hadnt seen similar charts on prior runs, hence the risk of it being out of kilter with prior runs. A point noticed by others.

[cheshire snow]

Blimey the bickering this evening is nearly as bad as it is in winter

Thanks to Gibby though for giving a good overall view of all the models

C.S

[PubliusEnigma]

It is going to be warm next week and dry and sunny, maybe the off days or so, but it will be warm at least, so please stop degrading this possibility or trying to find an excuse to believe it won't happen, get over it PE! I defended you slightly about the last chart, but it is not to worry about just yet, when the time comes if it does.

I got a bit of sun today and it felt pretty warm and rather very nice. So if next week is to go by, it will be very nice indeed, considering how cool it has been, it will feel warmer than it should I would think. I don't know how you cannot not admit it, it is childish. It is like you don't want to admit it or something.

Thanks . Well its been truly horrendous here for the last 7 days, constantly cloudy, often wet, and unseasonably cool. The general pattern shows

little real chnage looking at the 850 heights. Perhaps I've forgotten what a warm(er) synpotic looks like.. lol.

My fear is it could be a case of so near yet so far, the ECM and GFS out in the reliable do not show the azores HP moving close enough to bring

real warmth or a much of a flow south of west. Again this is a bit IMBY, as Ireland could do rather well next week comparitivley with the summer so far, where as the SEast, probably less so. Interestingly I am a very optimistic character by nature, you may be interested to know

[Paul]

The fact remains PE - you called the run an outlier and specifically talked about the 29th in that statement, the definition of an outlier is that it's out of alignment with the ensembles of the same run, it's not. You then changed the definition of an outlier and suggested it was about the 12z for the same date, but again they were similar and nowhere near to anything being an outlier (eg very different). When that didn't suit, you said it wasn't the temperature being predicted (despite that being the crux of your argument initially), but the setup, and again that wasn't very different either, so now you've decide it wasn't about that but about the run overall and nothing to do with the 29th at all.

It's not really a surprise that people are starting to assume that you have an agenda and are more about creating reaction that actually having a reasoned debate - and lets be honest this wouldn't be the first time that accusation has been levelled at you.

[snowlover2009]

Thanks . Well its been truly horrendous here for the last 7 days, constantly cloudy, often wet, and unseasonably cool. The general pattern shows

little real chnage looking at the 850 heights. Perhaps I've forgotten what a warm(er) synpotic looks like.. lol.

My fear is it could be a case of so near yet so far, the ECM and GFS out in the reliable do not show the azores HP moving close enough to bring

real warmth or a much of a flow south of west. Again this is a bit IMBY, as Ireland could do rather well next week comparitivley with the summer so far, where as the SEast, probably less so. Interestingly I am a very optimistic character by nature, you may be interested to know

Sorry I did not mean to call you childish LOL. I was trying to defend you, but you seemed to try and scrape everything under the carpet for next weeks outlook. But I know how you feel.

[ribster]

After a fleeting ribbon of a high pressure ridge an atlantic system will throw out a veil of milky cloud...

Not sure what you mean by this.. other than metaphorically describing yourself somewhat.

Cracking models though something to look forward to at last, why the squabbling over 3-4 degrees is really strange !

I don't know about squabbling over 3-4 degrees, as to squabbling over 4/5 days of hardly groundbreaking weather. Bill Giles said it all on that British weather show - not writing off summer he said, but we will get some decent 4/5 day periods of weather followed by rain etc etc.

Expecting a chart 10 days away to verify as it is, is as laughable in summer as it is winter.

As ever, excellent summary from Gibby.

Edited July 20, 2011 by ribster

[Summer Sun]

Blimey the bickering this evening is nearly as bad as it is in winter

Thanks to Gibby though for giving a good overall view of all the models

C.S

Every time PubliusEnigma come's on this part of the forum we all end up arguing with him don't know why. (Well i do but i'll say nothing)

Thanks for the summary gibby appreciated as alway's.

[snowlover2009]

Blimey the bickering this evening is nearly as bad as it is in winter

Thanks to Gibby though for giving a good overall view of all the models

C.S

We have it all to come this winter, imagine it. Our new, child like posters will be for ever bickering and squabbling over a poxy chart that probably won't ever see light of day. It is worse with the new less experienced members and there is a lot of them on now these days.... I have been on 2 winters on NW forum and gone through 4 winters as a lurker on here and never know anything like it in here. It is like a day care. Last winter we had people crumbling and cursing at each other this year, the exact same, only now there is even more members, which is strange for this time of year. God, imagine what it will be like come October, when the forum starts to get busier, Gavin will be busting his guts and claiming this that and other about charts. Jonathon going on about northerlies and goodness knows what else.

[Geordiesnow]

It does look as we head into Next week the weather will turn warmer although that is not really all mighty difficult but people got to remember not assosciate high pressure and equal it with it bring warm clear blue skies and sunshine because it does not work out like that.

For example, the GFS has an old front trapped within the high so I expect a few cloudy but fairly warm even humid days but the cloud should gradually break up revealing more sunshine as time goes on, especialy for the more Eastern areas. I think western areas may be more cloudier due to the wind direction but its all up for debate at this moment in time.

Again though, people who like to write off a month/season NEEDS to learn fast that the outlook can switch from a bad looking set up to a good one and vice versa but I very much doubt that would be learnt by the winter season.

[snowlover2009]

Every time PubliusEnigma come's on this part of the forum we all end up arguing with him don't know why. (Well i do but i'll say nothing)

Thanks for the summary gibby appreciated as alway's.

We get it every week, something needs to be done or take action. It is like eagles dare.

Edited July 20, 2011 by snowlover2009

[Summer Sun]

We have it all to come this winter, imagine it. Our new, child like posters will be for ever bickering and squabbling over a poxy chart that probably won't ever see light of day. It is worse with the new less experienced members and there is a lot of them on now these days.... I have been on 2 winters on NW forum and gone through 4 winters as a lurker on here and never know anything like it in here. It is like a day care. Last winter we had people crumbling and cursing at each other this year, the exact same, only now there is even more members, which is strange for this time of year. God, imagine what it will be like come October, when the forum starts to get busier, Gavin will be busting his guts and claiming this that and other about charts. Jonathon going on about northerlies and goodness knows what else.

Before you go any further I couldn't care less about winter, so you can be assured that what you've said is wrong, if it's cold it's cold, if it's not then it's not I don't care about winter the day's are short anyway.

[snowlover2009]

Before you go any further I couldn't care less about winter, so you can be assured that what you've said is wrong, if it's cold it's cold, if it's not then it's not I don't care about winter the day's are short anyway.

Well, i was not just talking about cold chart, but sorry for jumping a bit. We do get this from OUR newer established members because I have seen it many times, remember frosty joe anyone? They struggle to fit in because they get overshadowed i guess.

Edited July 20, 2011 by snowlover2009

[PubliusEnigma]

The fact remains PE - you called the run an outlier and specifically talked about the 29th in that statement, the definition of an outlier is that it's out of alignment with the ensembles of the same run, it's not. You then changed the definition of an outlier and suggested it was about the 12z for the same date, but again they were similar and nowhere near to anything being an outlier (eg very different). When that didn't suit, you said it wasn't the temperature being predicted (despite that being the crux of your argument initially), but the setup, and again that wasn't very different either, so now you've decide it wasn't about that but about the run overall and nothing to do with the 29th at all.

It's not really a surprise that people are starting to assume that you have an agenda and are more about creating reaction that actually having a reasoned debate - and lets be honest this wouldn't be the first time that accusation has been levelled at you.

You seem to be intentionally making a lot of assumptions on my behalf, beholdant almost to someone who themseleves may harbour an agenda or a point to prove. You are massivley overcomplicating an observation I made, which I am entitled to make, as are others here, but chose to knock it down as best you could by manourvering the goalposts to support your 'arguement'. My observation remains, and take note, it is a generalised observation, also observed by Rob, that the GFS 12z paints a potentially significantly warmer outlook around the end of July, compared to prior runs. To my mind it is therefore a warmer outlier, based on prior runs, not accross the same 12z scatter. How much of an outlier is down to personal interpretation, an opinion. There are professional in politics who can argue black is white, and vice versa, there is no need for it here really. To that extent, I think it would be a good idea to draw a line under this little debate.

For the record, I have no agenda whatsoever, and the comments you make to the contrary could encourage others, which could be considered to be irresponsible. I actually am very much hoping for a late summer to arrive, and like most are looking for that pattern change which would bring a warmer spell of greater longetivity. And indeed one which could encompass the majority of the country. To my mind however this remains beyond the horizon at the present time.

Once again, for no agenda, just reasoned debate and interpretaion, which I think is healthy.

[William of Walworth]

Re post 65, previous page :

And in the winter, I'm never anywhere near these forums .... winter is what winter does!

I openly admit though (as many regulars here know) to having a summer agenda of my own -- I just want and hopecast that weekends (especially) will be pleasant -- we decamp from Swansea over most July and August w/e's so we look forward to forecasts of the type currently showing.

I have to say that anyone forecasting from the current output that next week will be in any way other than pleasant is well skewed in their perspective. Even this coming w/e, parts of the UK at least look to have a benign HP influence.

And after next weekend, that of Sat 30th, ANYTHING can happen -- FI, remember?. Rather sceptical myself about suggested quick breakdowns after that date.

Edited July 20, 2011 by William of Walworth

[Paul]

You seem to be intentionally making a lot of assumptions on my behalf, beholdant almost to someone who themseleves may harbour an agenda or a point to prove. You are massivley overcomplicating an observation I made, which I am entitled to make, as are others here, but chose to knock it down as best you could by manourvering the goalposts to support your 'arguement'. My observation remains, and take note, it is a generalised observation, also observed by Rob, that the GFS 12z paints a potentially significantly warmer outlook around the end of July, compared to prior runs. To my mind it is therefore a warmer outlier, based on prior runs, not accross the same 12z scatter. How much of an outlier is down to personal interpretation, an opinion. There are professional in politics who can argue black is white, and vice versa, there is no need for it here really. To that extent, I think it would be a good idea to draw a line under this little debate.

For the record, I have no agenda whatsoever, and the comments you make to the contrary could encourage others, which could be considered to be irresponsible. I actually am very much hoping for a late summer to arrive, and like most are looking for that pattern change which would bring a warmer spell of greater longetivity. And indeed one which could encompass the majority of the country. To my mind however this remains beyond the horizon at the present time.

Once again, for no agenda, just reasoned debate and interpretaion, which I think is healthy.

I'm making no assumptions - I posted a chart to illustrate my disagreement with your view, you challenged it by saying you meant something else, I posted some more charts and so on - all I've done is respond to your posts.

As for agenda's - I'm afraid you come across as someone who looks for controversy, you've done it before, and you appear to be doing it again - people's reactions to your posts back that up. Maybe rather than pointing fingers at me (and others) it's time for you to take a look at yourself and deal with that before the team has no option but to take action on your account by pre-moderating your posts again - which I'm sure you'd agree isn't the ideal scenario.

I wouldn't normally have this type of conversation publicly but unfortunately I can't recall you ever having responded to one of my pm's and other members in the team have reported the same thing so....

But anyway, I'm going to stop now - apologies for the off topic post folks, let's get back to the models.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I agree with what Paul says above.

This is a classic example of a Summer High Pressure - but in the wrong place for us

[image]

note cool air moving around the high coming down from the north, having travelled over a warm sea, will be cloud

laden at low levels with light winds it will be difficult for the cloud to break. Relying more on plummeting over night

temps to disolve the cloud. After possible sunny starts. cumulus would develop but capping would lead to the cloud rapidly

spreading out into stratocumulus, and generally overall cloudy days. Again temps around the mid teens most likely.

I think there may well end up being cloud-related issues with this high but not the one that you describe. The most likely source of cloud IMO is if we pick up a north-easterly flow (which is recurring on a large number of the model runs) which could bring a fair amount of cloud in off the North Sea into eastern parts of both Scotland and England. Another one is small troughs/disturbances running around the northern and eastern flank of the high, which would probably bring broken cloud and spark off some showers.

I don't see the "cumulus spreading into stratocumulus" being a major issue with such a strong anticyclone unless the models revise its position further away from the British Isles in subsequent runs. It tends to be mostly associated with weak anticyclones, or situations with moist tropical maritime air on the northern flank of ridges from the Azores High.

[Northernlights]

not at harvest time! :lol:

the last thing they want now is rain...

[lorenzo]

I don't know about squabbling over 3-4 degrees, as to squabbling over 4/5 days of hardly groundbreaking weather. Bill Giles said it all on that British weather show - not writing off summer he said, but we will get some decent 4/5 day periods of weather followed by rain etc etc.

Expecting a chart 10 days away to verify as it is, is as laughable in summer as it is winter.

As ever, excellent summary from Gibby.

Well I'll take trends that show colours in the Red area of the palette over the UK versus the Green and Cyan IMBY of recent note ! Hopefully this trend will be firmed up as runs unfold.

Totally agree T+10 is folly. Am sure some folk enjoy this thread, and the joy can be extended via the ignore function if it is still around.. just a tip..