Hurricane Maria

[knocker]

WTNT44 KNHC 141445

TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 32

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011

1100 AM AST WED SEP 14 2011

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF MARIA REMAINS

ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...A BIT WEST OF

EARLIER ESTIMATES. WHILE MARIA IS MORE ORGANIZED THAN YESTERDAY...

WIND SHEAR HAS CLEARLY BEEN INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT

STRENGTHENING. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS SUPPORT RETAINING AN

INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT. MARIA HAS SOME CHANCE TO INTENSIFY FOR

THE NEXT DAY OR SO UNTIL THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS A RATHER HIGH SHEAR

ENVIRONMENT AND CROSSES THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM. ABOUT

HALF OF THE MODELS...IN FACT...MAKE MARIA A HURRICANE. GIVEN THAT

THIS STORM HAS BEEN AN UNDERPERFORMER...AND STILL HAS TO MOVE

THROUGH THE SST WAKE OF KATIA...THE NHC FORECAST WILL STAY ON THE

LOWER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/12 KT. IT APPEARS THAT THE

LONG-AWAITED TURN TO THE NORTH AND ACCELERATION OF THE STORM HAS

BEGUN DUE TO A TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST.

THIS TROUGH SHOULD TURN THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BY

TOMORROW AND CAUSE A LARGE INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS MARIA GETS

CAUGHT IN RATHER FAST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE NHC FORECAST IS

ADJUSTED A BIT TO THE LEFT IN THE FIRST 24 HR...MOSTLY BECAUSE OF

THE REPOSITIONING...BUT IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST

AFTER THAT TIME. IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...MARIA SHOULD BE LOSING

TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DUE TO EXTREMELY HIGH SHEAR AND COLD

WATERS. ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE HAVE THE SYSTEM BEING ABSORBED

INTO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN 3 DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST

AGREES WITH THAT SCENARIO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 25.2N 69.4W 50 KT 60 MPH

12H 15/0000Z 27.6N 69.4W 50 KT 60 MPH

24H 15/1200Z 31.6N 68.3W 55 KT 65 MPH

36H 16/0000Z 36.5N 65.3W 60 KT 70 MPH

48H 16/1200Z 42.5N 58.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

72H 17/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE

[Paranoid]

Maria's been doing some strengthening over the last day and is now near Hurricane intensity. An eye is visible on microwave images but isn't showing up on IR or the visible loops.

[Somerset Squall]

Yes,it looks like after 9 days of remaining in a steady, disorganised state, that Maria will finally become a hurricane before it rather quickly ceases to exist.

[Somerset Squall]

Maria has strengthened to 65kts, making her a category 1 hurricane. Maria has developed a fairly decent central dense overcast feature with a rugged eye. Shear has fallen significantly over Maria, and the hurricane is moving out of waters upwelled by Hurricane Katia. Maria has another 12hrs over warm water and light shear, so further strengthening appears likely. Maria will then continue racing northeastwards and be absorbed by a cold front in a couple days. But not before threatening southeast Newfoundland with hurricane force winds.

[Somerset Squall]

Hurricane Maria has strengthened further this morning and intensity is now at 70kts. However, Maria is now moving over waters of 23C which will continue to fall under the very quick northeasterly track. Because the forward speed of Maria is so fast however, Maria could still be a hurricane as it affects Newfoundland.

[knocker]

Yup Newfoundland could well get some nasty weather today.

WTNT34 KNHC 160843

TCPAT4

BULLETIN

HURRICANE MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 39

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011

500 AM AST FRI SEP 16 2011

...MARIA RACING NORTHEASTWARD...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE

OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND DURING THE MORNING HOURS...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...41.7N 60.3W

ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 45 MPH...72 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ARNOLDS COVE TO BRIGUS SOUTH

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM STONES COVE TO ARNOLDS COVE AND FROM BRIGUS

SOUTH TO CHARLOTTETOWN

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED

SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12

HOURS OR SO. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE

RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12

TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 41.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.3 WEST. MARIA IS MOVING

TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 45 MPH...72 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION

WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE

DAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND ADDITIONAL

ACCELERATION BY TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF

MARIA SHOULD PASS NEAR OR OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND

THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. MARIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE

MARIA MOVES OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND LATER TODAY. SOME

WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED BY TONIGHT...AND MARIA COULD BE ABSORBED

WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE BY SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205

MILES...335 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS

SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER THIS

MORNING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE

WARNING AREA BY MIDDAY.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS

SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND IN ASSOCIATION WITH MARIA.

STORM SURGE...COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF

WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL

BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$

FORECASTER BERG/AVILA

Edited September 16, 2011 by weather ship

[weatherobsuk]

Not a good day for those on Newfoundland, mainly in the small cities of St.Johns, St.Pierre & Port Blandford with the track passing right over them today.

[knocker]

==discussion==Summary of basic information at 12:30 PM NDT.Location: about 44.5 north 56.4 west.About 295 kilometres east-northeast of Sable Island.Maximum sustained winds: 120 km/hour.Present movement: northeast at 82 km/h.Minimum central pressure: 983 MB.A hurricane warning is in effect for the Southern Avalon and tropical storm warnings are in effect for the Northern Avalon, and the Burin and bona vista peninsulas. Storm to hurricane force winds are currently affecting offshore marine areas.