2012 UK Drought

[Village]

The experts said back at the end of March that we needed two months of continuous rain.......well its been six weeks now.

In Essex and Suffolk our reservoirs are absolutely full up which is unusual at this time of year and most of our rivers are in flood.

I think we can move on now and put the brought that never was behind us.

[Coast]

I think we can move on now and put the brought that never was behind us.

Really? well here's an update on your March information:

Who, What, Why: How much rain is needed to ease the drought?

It has been the wettest April in the UK since records began in 1910, with flood alerts and warnings in place across England and Wales. Why then are parts of the country still officially in drought and why is the hosepipe ban set to remain?

People have long spoken of April showers, but the likes of last month's heavy rain and storms haven't been seen in more than 100 years. The heavens opened just as hosepipe bans were introduced and a number of regions were officially declared to be in drought. While the long, persistent rainfall has provided relief for farmers, gardeners and wildlife in drought areas, experts say it will take more than one wet month to make up for many dry ones.

According to John Rodda, a water consultant and former head of the World Meteorological Association, in the 12 months to March, about 40% less rainfall than average was recorded. This means, he says, that there was a shortfall of about 120mm.

As a result, groundwater levels are at a historic low. But experts say the rain has come at the wrong time of the year for these stocks to be easily replenished. Provisional Met Office data up to 29 April showed 121.8mm (4.8in) of rain fell on average, almost double the long-term average for April of 69.6mm. But Jamie Hannaford from the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology says we need rain in winter rather than summer. "It's in the winter season that the rain that falls can soak down through the soil and make its way down into the groundwater stores.

"We really need not just above average rainfall. We would need exceptional rainfall to change the situation."

According to the Met Office, average rainfall is much higher in December than April or May.

But the rainfall in winter replenishes stocks much more as the evaporation is low. Evaporation increases substantially over the summer, so aquifers - underground natural reservoirs formed from porous rocks - are recharged mainly during October to March.

The soil at the surface needs to be "wetted up" in order to allow rainfall to move down through the underlying rock material into the aquifer. Evaporation rates vary according to factors such as vegetation and soil type. "It will take a much longer period of sustained rainfall for the groundwater to recover in chalk, which is the UK's primary aquifer," says Dr Adrian Butler, a reader in subsurface hydrology at Imperial College London

"One of the main reasons for concerns over water availability in southern and eastern England and the Midlands - which are officially in drought - is their dependence on groundwater from aquifers. "Weeks of rain are needed to wet the ground enough for rainwater to percolate down and begin filling up the aquifer. After the wettest April on record, this is starting to happen. However, most of rain in recent weeks has run off directly into rivers, which is why we are experiencing flooding in some places at the moment."

Butler estimates that water levels in those areas are around 10m below average for this time of year.

"Crudely, the amount of water needed to 'fill' or saturate the rock - usually chalk - is about 1% of its total volume, therefore to raise the water table by 10m requires approximately 100mm of water. However, you need to take into account as the weather warms up, water evaporates more readily from the soil," he says

In addition, removal of groundwater and flows to springs and rivers over the summer need to be taken into account, he says. These can be estimated as being approximately equivalent to a reduction of 5m in the water table or around 50mm rainfall.

Because the ground at the end of March was so dry, around 30-70mm of water would have been needed to wet it up before recharge can take place. A complicating factor, he says, is that rainfall rates are very variable and intense rainfalls, such as we can get during summer storms, results in a fraction of the rainfall flowing rapidly into rivers without going into the groundwater system.

"If we take a value for evaporation over the period April to September in the South East to be around 450mm - a very approximate figure as it depends on the type of weather we have - then, very crudely, we can say that to bring groundwater levels back to normal we need at least 50 mm (wetting up soil), plus 100mm (net increase in aquifer storage), plus 50mm (losses from aquifer over summer), plus 450mm (losses due to evaporation) over the next six months." This gives a total of 650mm, Butler says.

"However, taking into account the fast run-off effect means that we could need about 10% more, or approximately 50mm or so, making a grand total of around 700mm between April and September. As the rainfall for southern England during this period is around 60mm per month (for example around 350mm over the next six months), we're therefore looking at needing about twice the normal amount of summer rainfall."

While these figures focus only on one drought-stricken region of the UK, they highlight the difficulty of trying to determine how much rainfall is needed to alleviate drought conditions. As a result, water companies are warning customers that a hosepipe ban is likely to remain in place for some time to come.

http://www.bbc.co.uk...gazine-17875456

You've really got to stop trying to generalise what is happening in your back garden, thinking it applies to the rest of the country and the very real drought some areas are still facing........

[Village]

I am definitely getting the impression that we are being spun a yarn by the water authorities. Sure in one region they have had a number of dry winters. But its not as widespread as they maintain and the problem is partly their own making.

Its been chucking it down now for six weeks and two months ago they said they needed it. Now they have had it, they say they need more.

Meanwhile in the driest place in the country where I live we have no water restrictions....no plans to restrict water and all reservoirs are full up. They even say that it doesnt matter what happens between now and September because we have more than enough if it never rains again for six months.

[Coast]

I am definitely getting the impression that we are being spun a yarn by the water authorities. Sure in one region they have had a number of dry winters. But its not as widespread as they maintain and the problem is partly their own making.

I'm definitely getting the impression you are using anecdotal or personal, local observation and not hard facts, data and statistics produced by experts in Hydrology and other related sciences and pertaining to the whole of the UK.....

[weatherobsuk]

It came to me a few days ago that if the problem isn't with groundwater but underground aquifiers, why doesn't the Gubberment/Companies simply send tankers up this way to replenish them. Saves building a needless pipeline for a short-term problem.

[Coast]

They even say that it doesnt matter what happens between now and September because we have more than enough if it never rains again for six months.

Who are they and where is the evidence of that please?

[Village]

The Essex and Suffolk water spokesman was interviewed on TV during the floods last week. He said that in Essex and Suffolk the reservoirs were full or almost full and as a result of the current healthy levels that it was very unlikely that our region would introduce any restrictions. He went on to add that it didnt even matter if the weather became dry for the summer because regardless the Essex and Suffolk water region had more than enough to last right through to September.

I wish I could remember what channel it was....it is most likely to have been look east after the 6pm news last Wednesday or Thursday evening.

[Coast]

Perhaps you could correct me here, but is the case the some (or more) of Essex and Suffolk Water's supply is actually piped in from other locations outside the area??

"There are local connections turning up all over the country, so it's not as simple as one way traffic. For example, Thames Water has a desalination plant and sells water to Essex and Suffolk.

http://www.itv.com/n...-drought-order/

Northumbrian Water which now supplies drought-hit Essex and Suffolk, and South West and Wessex Water had also reached their 2015 targets by 2010.

http://www.dailymail...l#ixzz1uTx5jotp

[HighPressure]

It came to me a few days ago that if the problem isn't with groundwater but underground aquifiers, why doesn't the Gubberment/Companies simply send tankers up this way to replenish them. Saves building a needless pipeline for a short-term problem.

I do like this idea

When you start sending out tankers and I have, you realize just how many of them you need. It's a good way of quantifying how much water is used. The average water tanker is half the size of a petrol tanker and can hold @20,000ltrs, in order to as you say put water into the ground (known as artificial recharge) you need a minimum of say 2mld that's is 2,000,000ltrs a day which equals 4 tankers every hour of the day. That is only for one small aquifer, and experiments carried out does not sugges it is in anyway efficient. Not to mention the environmental impact of the road traffic.

To put that into perspective 200,000,000ltrs is roughly what Thames water Kent wells produce each day, that is 100 times the above, that's 10,000 tankers a day to supply 10% of London's daily usage. And to say better than a pipe, when the 60" main I famously burst in 1999 putting Hanger Lang under 30ft of water was carrying 250mld at the time.

I don't think people really understand the quantities involved?

Edited May 10, 2012 by HighPressure

[cyclonic happiness]

I thought they were going to use the canal and river network to help transfer water to the southeast?

Regardless of whether we're in drought or not, the real problem is lack of forethought and investment.

Any fool could see that the water situation in the southeast would reach crisis point before long.

So what are the water companies planning to ensure this never happens again, or are we just going to have silly corporate games as usual where they put profit over ensuring that one of the wettest countries in Europe has enough water?

Just look at all the flood waters flowing unhindered away into the sea, why cannot that be piped into aquifers surely the technology exists?

But as per usual, the shareholders are the most important aren't they?

[Village]

Perhaps you could correct me here, but is the case the some (or more) of Essex and Suffolk Water's supply is actually piped in from other locations outside the area?? http://www.itv.com/n...-drought-order/ http://www.dailymail...l#ixzz1uTx5jotp

No, its not true.

The desalination plant was not built in London to supply Essex and Suffolk with water. It was built for the forecasted increase in population by another 750k to 1 million Londoners this decade. It only runs in emergencies, ie terrorist attack or absolute drought conditions for Londoners.

In my region of Essex and Suffolk there is no drought and no drought restrictions and there is no water being pumped in.

[IanM]

Village, you live in a tiny corner of the UK with some of the best aquifer conditions in the country, along with an enormous reservoir that serves a very small population.

There is a drought, the water tables are very low in many regions and you're starting to be a little boring with the same message repeated over and over, the plural of anedote isn't data, so stop using it to justify the fact that you are in a fortunate position. we get it, you can use a hose.

[Nick L]

The thing is Village, no matter how much evidence people post to counteract your opinion, you refuse to acknowledge that you might be wrong. So what's the point discussing it? Just because your area isn't in drought doesn't mean the rest of the country isn't as well.

I'm still waiting for some facts to support your claims.

[Village]

That was not my point.

The media are making a bigger deal out of this situation. The fact is that it is not the whole country and despite what you say its not just my region in the south which is not in drought....its the whole of the rest of the country which is not in droght. Its only a small region in some central, southern and eastern areas who rely on ground water supplies.

Thats the point.

[Nick L]

That was not my point.

The media are making a bigger deal out of this situation. The fact is that it is not the whole country and despite what you say its not just my region in the south which is not in drought....its the whole of the rest of the country which is not in droght. Its only a small region in some central, southern and eastern areas who rely on ground water supplies.

Thats the point.

"Small region"? Ok, here's the map of the drought...

Population-wise it is the majority of the UK.

Edited May 11, 2012 by Nick L

[IanM]

The point is that we have an environmental drought for around 75% of England, and a water company declared drought for an area from central southern England to just south of Hull, with the exception of a tiny corner of Essex around Colchester.

So your point still isn't a point...

[Shunter]

Its a combination of a drier than normal couple of years ,under investment and an increase in the population in the areas most affected. With the forecasted populus increase in the South East continuing, things will only worsen there in the next few years. Maybe its time Property developments contributed more towards utility investment.

One thing for sure -- "Water is the next Oil"

[Village]

Here is the map showing that the water restrictions only relate to some areas. The majority of the whole of the United Kingdom are NOT in a serious drought situation and have no water restrictions whatsoever.

This map shows England and Wales, but Scotland and Ireland also dont have hosepipe bans.

http://www.karcher.co.uk/uk/about_karcher/Karcher_UK_news/Hosepipe_Ban.htm

Further, these maps are from two months ago, since then we have seen record levels of rain in all areas.

Edited May 11, 2012 by Village

[Coast]

The media are making a bigger deal out of this situation.

I'll give you that as the media can, at times, be very much about self-promotion, headlines and sales of their particular medium or the advertising within it. But when you start to 'drill down' (excuse the awful pun!!) into real and current data/statistics, the headlines actually reflect a great deal of what is ahppening in the country in general.

The fact is that it is not the whole country and despite what you say its not just my region in the south which is not in drought...

Yet again, you make a bold statement (somewhat like the newspapers) and then don't back that up with a shred of evidence or statistical proof!! Make the claim - back it up please!!!

its the whole of the rest of the country which is not in drought. .

Good grief, I totally give up showing you that is not the case

Edit, I fell at the first hurdle!!!

[Village]

Its a combination of a drier than normal couple of years ,under investment and an increase in the population in the areas most affected. With the forecasted populus increase in the South East continuing, things will only worsen there in the next few years. Maybe its time Property developments contributed more towards utility investment.

One thing for sure -- "Water is the next Oil"

Yes, I think you are right. The emphasis should be on the demand for water and looking at the infrastructure to cope with the millions of extra immigrants we have and will have. They all need a home, a shower, bath, washing, cleaning, cooking etc, etc.

London has introduced a dissalination plant to cope. But I really dont think we have seen the water companies do nearly enough.

Our climate hasnt changed, its the demand that has changed.

[IanM]

stop relying on month old commercial sites for your information - use the Environment Agency and you'll see that restrictions now cover more regions http://bit.ly/KeJIxf and everyone knows that the UK isn't totally under restrictions. I don't think anyone has claimed it is, the simple fact is that millions of people cannot use their hose because of water company declared shortages, and the environmental impact spreads even wider.

Will the EA reduce the areas under environmental drought? Who knows, will the water companies currently using temporary restriction orders lift them? unlikely, the shortages will not be replenished by this period of torrential rain.

Now drop it, it's a pointless argument, either you are wrong, or you are arguing a point that no one has stated.

[Coast]

This map shows England and Wales, but Scotland and Ireland also dont have hosepipe bans.

http://www.karcher.c...osepipe_Ban.htm

A hosepipe ban map from a manufacturer of products that use hoses............

and now a completely up to date map on areas IN DROUGHT from the University College London, Department of Space, Climate and Science:

http://drought.mssl....e=/drought.html

Are you misunderstanding a hosepipe ban for a drought?

[Summer Sun]

Breaking News

South West England, the Midlands and parts of Yorkshire are no longer in drought following heavy rain in recent weeks

[IanM]

Breaking News

South West England, the Midlands and parts of Yorkshire are no longer in drought following heavy rain in recent weeks

Not a big surprise, but this is environmental drought, related to river and stream levels, not water company drought orders that are the reason for hosepipe bans.

[Village]

If one is in a serious drought situation then water companies will apply water restrictions. The fact that many of the regions which are marked as in a drought situation dont have any water restrictions or plans to introduce them demonstrates that something is not right with your data. Namely, its too general. The regions that have a problem are the minority here in the UK.

I maintain my view that something is not right about the level of attention this is being given in the media at a time when we have all been experiencing flooding for weeks.

If its been such a big problem for so many years then why have the water companies not altered their infrastructure to cope?

Could it be that they dont expect the situation to be a problem in the future? or is it being overplayed?