2012 UK Drought

[shedhead]

Guesswork yes, but I'd prefer to see it as educated guesswork. Using further educated guesswork based purely on balance, I'd suggest the period from 15th July-31st Aug will be drier than average across the UK as a whole.

[Village]

Well this is what I said back in Feb... not saying I knew very much for sure, but what I did know is a balance would come and given the length of the dry spell at the time that balance was becoming ever more likely.

shedhead, on 23 February 2012 - 15:44 , said:

Seen this kind of thing time and time again, nature always balances itself out and it will here. Just watch us have a wet Spring and Summer now... come June this will just be yet another non story.

Absolutely bang on!! It was my exact thinking at the time.

The truth is that after a long period of reduced rainfall that the chance of rain increases....the Met Office and so called experts bang on and on about averages etc, etc only when it suits them to do so....but clearly they dodnt understand what the word average really means. They didnt predict more rain ....they just predicted more dry....what the hell were they thinking when they are furnished with realms of average data right under their very noses?

Why cant these so called experts see the reality of a situation?

Edited July 9, 2012 by Village

[Village]

Guesswork yes, but I'd prefer to see it as educated guesswork. Using further educated guesswork based purely on balance, I'd suggest the period from 15th July-31st Aug will be drier than average across the UK as a whole.

I have been looking to sell rainfall forward eight weeks....but no expert will quote me!

Edited July 9, 2012 by Village

[Methuselah]

Let's hope that 'Nature balances itself out' next summer, then - a 'scorcher' anyone?

[shedhead]

Yes please!

[Nick L]

Absolutely bang on!! It was my exact thinking at the time.

The truth is that after a long period of reduced rainfall that the chance of rain increases....the Met Office and so called experts bang on and on about averages etc, etc only when it suits them to do so....but clearly they dodnt understand what the word average really means. They didnt predict more rain ....they just predicted more dry....what the hell were they thinking when they are furnished with realms of average data right under their very noses?

Why cant these so called experts see the reality of a situation?

I can't recall anybody saying that it would be a dry summer? All quotes I saw were saying that if the drought continued into summer then it would be a very serious situation which it would have been.

[shedhead]

I'm not sure that's entirely right Nick. You are correct to say that at the time no one was predicting a dry Summer, but they were predicting that even unprecidented amounts of rainfall would do little to alleviate the drought because ground water levels were so low. That is where they got this hideously wrong, here we are just a few months later and the whole situation has been thoroughly redressed, both above and below ground.

[Nick L]

I'm not sure that's entirely right Nick. You are correct to say that at the time no one was predicting a dry Summer, but they were predicting that even unprecidented amounts of rainfall would do little to alleviate the drought because ground water levels were so low. That is where they got this hideously wrong, here we are just a few months later and the whole situation has been thoroughly redressed, both above and below ground.

Ok, that may be so. But the opinion of a few on this thread that there was never a drought in the first place is completely wrong. The fact that reservoirs were exceptionally low and some rivers had in fact dried up is surely a tell tale sign. Yes, the water companies should be doing more but that "stick your fingers in your ears" approach isn't really helpful when you're in the middle of a drought.

Now we're over the drought, now is the time to start hassling the water companies to sort it out. It should never have been privatised in fairness. They're more bothered about the shareholders than giving us a reliable supply of water.

Yes, as a wet, island nation we should never have had to deal with the problems we recently had, but the fact is we did. Giving it the "I told you so" really doesn't alleviate the situation.

[Methuselah]

Right enough, Nick. There were even calls for ending hosepipe-bans after about two-days' rain...

[shedhead]

Ok, that may be so. But the opinion of a few on this thread that there was never a drought in the first place is completely wrong. The fact that reservoirs were exceptionally low and some rivers had in fact dried up is surely a tell tale sign. Yes, the water companies should be doing more but that "stick your fingers in your ears" approach isn't really helpful when you're in the middle of a drought.

Now we're over the drought, now is the time to start hassling the water companies to sort it out. It should never have been privatised in fairness. They're more bothered about the shareholders than giving us a reliable supply of water.

Yes, as a wet, island nation we should never have had to deal with the problems we recently had, but the fact is we did. Giving it the "I told you so" really doesn't alleviate the situation.

I think the one thing we can all agree on is where the fault for all this lies, but there is more chance of a December heatwave than anything tangible being done to sort things out.

[simon66]

Let's hope that 'Nature balances itself out' next summer, then - a 'scorcher' anyone?

I don't have the knowledge you guys and gals have here which is why i usually try and figure out what's written between the lines (usually in the Models Discussion area for snow ). It is on the whole, all too much for my brain but i usally figure out if it will snow in the London area by basic reading skills, and deduction.. In my case very basic. .

I must admit i i have wondered how they "get it wrong" sometimes but reading the alternative views has it seems given me some insight into how difficult it can be predicting the weather so i do learn something after all.

Ha! It already is nature balancing the lack of rain we've had on the last two winters, albeit taking away our summer.

As for next summer, I can see the headline in a certain newpaper claiming that during a scorcher "The Sun Baked My Hamster"

Edited July 9, 2012 by simon66

[Nick L]

I think the one thing we can all agree on is where the fault for all this lies, but there is more chance of a December heatwave than anything tangible being done to sort things out.

Precisely. The water companies need to be nationalised again. But they won't. And the current problems will just snowball as the water infrastructure suffers further years of underinvestment and neglect. Expect a bit of papering over the cracks in the coming year and then nothing. And then we wait until the next dry spell and it all starts again. Only next time with a further increased population in areas which already struggle to supply enough water for everyone.

[shedhead]

Precisely. The water companies need to be nationalised again. But they won't. And the current problems will just snowball as the water infrastructure suffers further years of underinvestment and neglect. Expect a bit of papering over the cracks in the coming year and then nothing. And then we wait until the next dry spell and it all starts again. Only next time with a further increased population in areas which already struggle to supply enough water for everyone.

As do all the other utilities, but they won't. Any company in the energy or water supply sector should not be run for profit, otherwise the balance sheet and shareholder dividends will always come first over service. This is not rocket science, but looking around you would definately think it is.

[cyclonic happiness]

I predict that come September/October, the jet stream will dive even more south and sit over north Africa.

We'll then be stuck in another 'psuedo-continental weather regime which will leave us dry and boring until spring, when the jet stream will maigically shoot north to sit back over us just in time for summer!

I do honestly think that the changes to the jet stream are going to become long term and that we should be prepared for it.

[Village]

I can't recall anybody saying that it would be a dry summer? All quotes I saw were saying that if the drought continued into summer then it would be a very serious situation which it would have been.

This isnt a thread about the summer. Its a thread about the so called drought earlier this year.

[Nick L]

This isnt a thread about the summer. Its a thread about the so called drought earlier this year.

So-called because it was a drought by Met Office and Environment Agency definitions.

[Methuselah]

This isnt a thread about the summer. Its a thread about the so called drought earlier this year.

Does that mean that you consider that the summer's weather so-far has had no effect on the drought?

[Chris K]

This isnt a thread about the summer. Its a thread about the so called drought earlier this year.

Sorry, but it wasn't a 'so-called drought'...it was a drought. It doesn't have to be parched, brown, dead land to classify as one, as I'm sure you are aware.

Whether it be from lack of rainfall, poor water management, or both. Fact remains - SOME areas were in drought. Evidence could even be seen where I live in Gloucestershire at our local wetland areas. Ok, water supplies to our homes weren't being affected at this point, but natural habitats for various wildlife were. Seemed like a drought of some level to me, just not on the scale of what people often assume a drought looks like.

We've had a wet April, half of May, June and first week of July to alleviate the problem. What's that... 10-11 weeks of plentiful and sometimes too much rain? Ok, the drought didn't last as some would say it would, so in that respect, they were perhaps early to say things such as "restrictions could last 10-18 months"

"Several weeks of rain needed to ease drought" I remember was said back in late Spring by various sources. Look what's happened...We've had those several weeks of rain, if not more...and today the rest of restrictions are being lifted.

It just so happens this first half of summer has had in many areas, way above average rainfall. I don't think it was possible to forecast that with accuracy. Long range forecasts are only possible outcomes in my view by looking at trends and hints of pattern change. It can just as easily end up doing the opposite...as shown on many occasions in the past.

Edited July 9, 2012 by Chris K

[johnholmes]

This isnt a thread about the summer. Its a thread about the so called drought earlier this year.

gawd lad you don't 'alf go on

we ALL know your area did not but you appear unable to accept, be it shortage of rainfall or incompetence on behalf of a water authority, that some areas DID, by the new definition used by the professionals, have a drought.

how about you move on?

[chionomaniac]

Village, on 26 April 2012 - 10:30 , said:

There was talk of this year being as bad as 1976. I did predict that we would be looking at floods by May. I think that the water companies are mis-managing the water supplies and not investing enough to keep up with increasing demand.

IMO this country is not in a drought situation. Its nothing like one.

Well here we are and the final hosepipe ban is now removed.

The so called experts told us, the situation was the worst ever recorded, they told us to prepare for a summer like 1976, they said that even if it rained that at this time of year all the water is used up by the plants, they told us that at this time of year all the water just runs off the surface, they told us that we cannot rely on summer rainfall to replenish ground water stocks, they told us that we would be in drought until at least this winter.

Experts!! Who the hell were these people? I am not an expert and I clearly understood that they were talking rubbish and I wasnt being fooled as some clearly were. I predicted to prepair for floods and lots of rain. The experts at the Met Office said the opposite.

Lesson learned.....to all those who were sucked in by the hype and nonsense, my message is; dont simply believe all you hear and see just because a so called expert told you a story on the BBC. Use your own inteligence and experience to make your own mind up.

We are an island in the middle of the North Atlantic surrounded by low pressure and lots of water and moisture. We are not a desert, nothing like it.

Well done Village. That is a fantastic feat in long range forecasting - perhaps you should consider releasing seasonal forecasts.

Using my intelligence and experience to make my mind up should we enter a drought situation again then I would still want to preserve the water through restrictions rather than run the risk that the wettest June on record did or didn't occur.

Whether we live on an island surrounded by water or not, the fact that areas have had two years substantially lower rainfall causing a drought is evidence enough to me that the next two years could be the same. Luckily this time that hasn't occurred - but only a fool would discount the possibility that it could and I am glad that that fool is not in charge of the decision on whether restrictions should be imposed or not.

After all, if we had another two years the same then even your small, over resourced area may have had shortages, Village!

[Nick L]

Well done Village. That is a fantastic feat in long range forecasting - perhaps you should consider releasing seasonal forecasts.

Using my intelligence and experience to make my mind up should we enter a drought situation again then I would still want to preserve the water through restrictions rather than run the risk that the wettest June on record did or didn't occur.

Whether we live on an island surrounded by water or not, the fact that areas have had two years substantially lower rainfall causing a drought is evidence enough to me that the next two years could be the same. Luckily this time that hasn't occurred - but only a fool would discount the possibility that it could and I am glad that that fool is not in charge of the decision on whether restrictions should be imposed or not.

After all, if we had another two years the same then even your small, over resourced area may have had shortages, Village!

But...but...there was never a drought and it would never have caused any problems...

[Village]

It didnt cause any problems because it never was....it was overhyped for the chimps and the media circus.

You can take your head out of the sand now, unless you can tell us about another drought, another hosepipe ban that was never needed because it didnt stop raining.

[Methuselah]

All that trick photography, at those reservoirs, must have cost a fortune!

[Nick L]

It didnt cause any problems because it never was....it was overhyped for the chimps and the media circus.

You can take your head out of the sand now, unless you can tell us about another drought, another hosepipe ban that was never needed because it didnt stop raining.

So I imagined all those dry reservoirs, empty rivers and long periods without rain?

Forgive me if I'm wrong, but I thought the hosepipe ban was issued before the exceptional wet spell.

Must have imagined this:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-17724916

...and this...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-17690389

...and this...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-17908323

...and this...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/drought/9205639/Britain-faces-worst-drought-since-1976.html

But no, because a small area of southern England escaped a hosepipe ban, everything must have been made up!

Edited July 11, 2012 by Nick L

[Village]

As I said back in March, I live in the driest place in the country. I lived through the same couple of dry winters as everyone else did. There was no drought in my region the driest region in the UK. Essex and Suffolk water had normal levels in reservoirs, they never introduced any restrictions whatsoever. So you have to ask the question as I did and many others at that time: Why in a few regions is there a drought?

Is it that bad? or are some water companies not investing enough and managing the commodity? I doubted their claptrap...others bought it hook line and sinker. They told us that ancient aquifiers were so low that it had never ever been seen before! They told us that to get back to normal levels would take years or six months of continuous rain!! They told us that we would be in drought for the rest of the year! They told us that any rain that falls during this time of the year just gets soaked up by the plants! They told us that the water falling onto the dry land just runs away into rivers and wasnt going to soak in! They told us to prepair for hose pipe bans and restrictions right through the summer! They even made the flower show change all its plants to plants that wouldnt need watering because they wouldnt have the water!!

I thought it was a joke! I never saw any restrictions, I didnt buy the nonsense, I expected the rain and the floods. And guess what!

The ancient aquifiers are full up again despite all the exagerated scaremonger claims about underground supplies remaining dangerously low!

Experts these people were.... that was the expert view and people lapped it up because it sold newspapers and BBC air time. The clever ones sniggered at the stuppidity of it all. I mean....come on...this Island of ours...short of water? do me a favour please!

What did you do?

Edited July 11, 2012 by Village