Predicting Winter Weather Lore!

[Jane Louise]

“If in the fall of the leaf in October many leaves wither on the boughs and hang there, it betokens a frosty winter and much snow”

“When berries are many in October, beware a hard winter”

Count the number of days from the first snowfall of the season to the preceding New Moon. This, too, will tell you what the coming winter will bring.

Weather lore is the body of informal folklore related to the prediction of the weather.

history is full of rhymes, anecdotes, and adages meant to guide the uncertain in determining whether the morrow will bring weather fair or foul. For the farmer wanting to plant his crop. Prior to the invention of the mercury barometer, it was very difficult to gather numerical data of any predictive value.

Field larks congregating in flocks indicates severe cold.

Weather deals with atmospheric conditions during a particular time and place; whereas lore is a set of traditional beliefs, like folklore, that is passed down from one generation to the other. Weather lore combines environmental changes with old tales or sayings.

What do you think? Do you believe weather lore can be used to predict the weather?

[Radiating Dendrite]

“If in the fall of the leaf in October many leaves wither on the boughs and hang there, it betokens a frosty winter and much snow”

“When berries are many in October, beware a hard winter”

Count the number of days from the first snowfall of the season to the preceding New Moon. This, too, will tell you what the coming winter will bring.

Weather lore is the body of informal folklore related to the prediction of the weather.

history is full of rhymes, anecdotes, and adages meant to guide the uncertain in determining whether the morrow will bring weather fair or foul. For the farmer wanting to plant his crop. Prior to the invention of the mercury barometer, it was very difficult to gather numerical data of any predictive value.

Field larks congregating in flocks indicates severe cold.

Weather deals with atmospheric conditions during a particular time and place; whereas lore is a set of traditional beliefs, like folklore, that is passed down from one generation to the other. Weather lore combines environmental changes with old tales or sayings.

What do you think? Do you believe weather lore can be used to predict the weather?

The simple answer...........no.

Certainly not on a seasonal basis!

[lorenzo]

I think that this kind of folk lore could well be used to predict the winter, without getting too trippy hippy repeated elements in nature do happen again and again, they are mathematical patterns and thereby scientific.

Plenty of berries around this month anyway!

[gottolovethisweather]

Field larks congregating in flocks indicates severe cold.

What do you think? Do you believe weather lore can be used to predict the weather?

The "Field larks gathering" is a useful indicator of what's occuring from whence they came. In other words, it hints at conditions elsewhere and I imagine, you could use these facultative movements as a prediction of forthcoming weather. The Skylarks, to which I assume they are refering, simply undertake an escape movement and I think the message here is, whether numbers of the birds were there, previously.

I believe folk lore can be helpful if used correctly. If, in the above example, the winds were blasting down from the north in the "forthcoming days" then snow and frost could certainly be anticipated.

Personally, I like to take the view, when unusual bird/animal species turn up in unusual places and in numbers, then this could be a potential portent.

Kind Regards

gottolovethisweather

Edited October 13, 2011 by gottolovethisweather

[Styx]

The above post just beat me to what I was about to say re truly unusual behaivour and odd migration patterns which could be precursors to severe weather events.

On a completley different subject, it is interesting that animals have been known to agitate and flee prior to earthquakes, and there was an article I read sometime ago about wildlife fleeing coastal areas well prior to the tsunami arriving on shore in parts of Indonesia in 2004.

[jethro]

We could always keep records and see how the predictions pan out.

Michaelmas day was widely considered to show what to expect of the forthcoming winter.

If ducks do slide at Michaelmas,

At Christmas they will swim,

If ducks do swim at Michaelmas,

At Christmas they will slide

A clear, sunny Michaelmas day meant that a dry but freezing winter lay ahead.

Michaelmas is the 29th September (or 10th October using the old Julian calender).

We'll have to wait a bit longer for this one (or look back in the records), Candlemas day was also used for predictions.

If Candlemas day be fair and bright,

Winter will have another fight

But if Candlemas day be clouds and rain,

Winter is gone and will not come again.

Candlemas day is 2nd February.

The berries thing of lots of berries foretelling a cold winter was originally written about the Dogberry Tree - old English for the Rowan tree.

[Weather-history]

Here's an old one with variations of for summer

"Oak before ash

Have a splash

Ash before oak

Have a soak"

"If the oak before the ash comes out

There has been or there will be drought"

"If the oak comes out before the ash

There'll be no water for to wash"

"If the ash is out before the oak

You may expect a thorough soak"

Going off this report from 1881

Ash in full foliage before the oak

1816, 1817, 1821, 1823, 1828, 1829, 1830, 1840, 1845, 1850, 1859

Those summers were indifferent

The oak before the ash

1818, 1819, 1820, 1822, 1824, 1826, 1827, 1833, 1834, 1835, 1836, 1837, 1842, 1846, 1854, 1868

the summers were generally fine and dry.

Edited October 13, 2011 by Mr_Data

[chionomaniac]

We could always keep records and see how the predictions pan out.

Michaelmas day was widely considered to show what to expect of the forthcoming winter.

If ducks do slide at Michaelmas,

At Christmas they will swim,

If ducks do swim at Michaelmas,

At Christmas they will slide

A clear, sunny Michaelmas day meant that a dry but freezing winter lay ahead.

Michaelmas is the 29th September (or 10th October using the old Julian calender).

We'll have to wait a bit longer for this one (or look back in the records), Candlemas day was also used for predictions.

If Candlemas day be fair and bright,

Winter will have another fight

But if Candlemas day be clouds and rain,

Winter is gone and will not come again.

Candlemas day is 2nd February.

The berries thing of lots of berries foretelling a cold winter was originally written about the Dogberry Tree - old English for the Rowan tree.

I can't imagine ducks ever sliding on the 29th September!!

As it happens 29th September was very warm and dry for the majority of the country. So what will that bring - cold and wet?

[Dorsetbred]

Sad that technology replaces the old folk lore.

I think quite a lot of these would have applied over the years, but given the times of change we are now in, their age old basis appears now to be lost.

Such a pity as they were really great predictors, I remember my grand parents saying quite a few of these, I hope we never loose them.

[Isolated Frost]

Is nature not reactive, not proactive?

[Radiating Dendrite]

Is nature not reactive, not proactive?

Yes.

Folklore is just that, because it happened once years ago, does not mean that a saying remembering that event (which then becomes folklore) will mean it will happen again.

"If Steve Murr, doth appear before October, so beakons a cold December"!

[gottolovethisweather]

Is nature not reactive, not proactive?

I would most definitely say yes as well RD.

Some old wive's tales or folk tales do have a habit of providing some results though.

As I mentioned previously, for example, many bird species move in from cold, frosted snowbound places and will only return when things start improving. Even what we regard as our common garden Blackbirds and sometimes Robins move on and are backed up in winter by birds from the continent. I would say that this COULD indicate forthcoming weather events IF the subsequent weather pattern were to arrive from the same region.

Wildlife doesn't always get it right and neither do the human species. So I reckon, if sensible scientific research was done on this matter, us humans, might well learn a thing or two.

Kind Regards

gottolovethisweather

Edited October 13, 2011 by gottolovethisweather

[Guest]

The above post just beat me to what I was about to say re truly unusual behaivour and odd migration patterns which could be precursors to severe weather events.

On a completley different subject, it is interesting that animals have been known to agitate and flee prior to earthquakes, and there was an article I read sometime ago about wildlife fleeing coastal areas well prior to the tsunami arriving on shore in parts of Indonesia in 2004.

I understand that many animals have a much wider hearing range than man, so it may well be that that they hear disturbances from within the earth's crust sometime prior to the actual earthquake or tsunami takes place, then it would appear instinct takes over and they head for the hills.

[Jane Louise]

Flowers in bloom late in Autumn indicate a bad winter.

A heavy November snow will last till April.

As November, so the following March.As November 21st, so is the Winter.

Snow coming two or three days after new moon will remain on the ground some time, but that falling just after new moon will soon go off.

It takes three cloudy days to bring a heavy snow.

When the fieldfare, redwing, starling, swan, snowfleck and other birds of passage arrive from the North, it indicates the probability of an early and severe winter.

When the white swan visits the Orkneys, expect a continued severe winter.

to be continued......

[Jane Louise]

In reference to my last post :

Flowers in bloom late in Autumn indicate a bad winter.

It's now January 11th and there's no sign of cold here yet! Still a couple of months to go! A weekend of frost is on the cards but for how long will this last?

And where is our bad winter. Will I have spoken to soon! time will tell of course.

[damianslaw]

There is a lot of truth in the Candlemas day - 2nd Feb weather lore saying which is 'if Candlemas day be fair and bright winter will have another bite, but if Candlemas day be grey with rain winter has gone and won't come again'.

Generally speaking high pressure at the start of Feb usually means the atlantic has been held at bay and therefore increases chances of further cold and snow during Feb, but rain normally a sign atlantic is in control in early feb is indicative of the atlantic ruling the roost when traditionally it begins to go into slumber.

I don't necessarily concur with this anology, as wet atlantic weather in early feb can quickly be followed by high pressure and colder weather mind its less likely for feb to start off cold and high pressure dominated only for the atlantic to quickly steamroller in for the rest of feb..

I like the weatherlore as it supports another weatherlore saying - as the days lengthen the cold strengthens i.e. the core of winter cold very rarely occurs before christmas - last year was an anomaly in the respect - it really was an anomaly last year - unprecedented events.

[Jane Louise]

If October brings heavy frosts and cold winds, January and February will be mild.

If Squirrels are scarce in Autumn,it indictates a cold winter.

The first snow comes six weeks after the last thunderstorm in September. (there's hope for me then)

If leaves do not fall before St.Martins, expect a cold winter. ( November 11th: St.Martins Day)

If Michaelmas brings many acorns

Christmas will cover the fields with snow.

A dark Michaelmas,a light christmas

If October moon comes without frost, expect no frost till the moon of November.

Wind in the South West on St.Martins day

There it will remain till February, and a mild witer will be had.

A warm November is a sign of a bad winter to come.

[gingercat]

Here's one for you all...a hard winter follows a fine St Denis' Day. (9th October)

Fifteen fine days hath October.

Lets see how those get on....

Edited October 7, 2012 by gingercat

[Methuselah]

When Posh's seagulls face the west, winter snows will do their best;

but when they do doth face the east, frosts they will be at their least...

When Farkin's grebes are flying low, drifts they will be soft and low;

but when thou grebes dost fly too high, Yamkin's snow stays in FI...

When 'Big Joe' says: it's going to snow;

we know darned well that nowt will show...

When Madden speaks of Snowmageddon;

bugger all's what I'll be geddin...

[gingercat]

heheheh very good!!!

[gingercat]

So! 9th October was a beautiful fine sunny autumn day. Does this mean a harsh winter to follow???

[Jane Louise]

So! 9th October was a beautiful fine sunny autumn day. Does this mean a harsh winter to follow???

Why, no!!! maybe if more people were to read into weather folklore they may have more of an understanding don't you think!!

[Methuselah]

Another question regarding plants' apparent abilities viz a viz clairvoyance concerns springtime: if apples trees know in advance, that a late frost is due, why don't they simply delay their blossoms for a couple of weeks?

[Eye to the sky]

Christmas on the balcony... means Easter in the embers!!....