Winter 2011/12 - General Discussion

[kold weather]

Plenty of time for things to change. For example I'm pretty certain most people wouldn't care if we had a mild December and first half of Jan if we were to have a late Jan/Feb like both 47 and 56.

The last 3 winters have more than satisfied the coldie in me for probably at least a few years, but it would be nice to get at least one potent cold spell before mid March...

[AWD]

If GP's forecast came to fruition that would be a good winter for me! That's why I'm not concerned at what looks like a probable month of no snow IMBY during December, as I hold faith that GP's forecast will prevail and a second half of winter will deliver!

Personally this would be better anyway as I tend to do a lot of travelling over Christmas and new year, and with the long range signals swaying with a possible return of the Euro High, I wouldn't mind as it would be christmas and my mind would be on other things!

Anyway I do have a hunch that something will happen this winter, I will be a frequent visitor to this site in the new year to see what possibilities develop!

Am enjoying the much more active outlook anyway, something for most people in the models in the next couple of weeks!

[martinj2]

Suprised how quiet it is around here, considering today's flurry of excitment in the Model forum........things may be becoming a lot more inteersting from sat onwards.

To quote from one poster

'Well its evolving folks and a colder picture is appearing, lets see what develops but lets get this weekend out of the way as its quite an explosive fast flow pattern showing and detail will vary somewhat'.

.....and....

'The atmosphere is has moved into 6th gear, hold on everyone it's gonna be a rough old ride!'

There has also been talk of some snow as far south as the Midlands for next week.......we shall see.

Edited November 28, 2011 by martinj2

[Luton Weather]

[Heisenberg]

And so it begins....at long last eh

[Gorath]

Damn you all, I was having a relatively productive day at work, and read some of this whilst having a tea break.

Now I'm as overexcited as a puppy about the slim possibility of incoming snow, haha!

Can't see me getting much work done this afternoon.

[Partholon]

Plenty of time for things to change. For example I'm pretty certain most people wouldn't care if we had a mild December and first half of Jan if we were to have a late Jan/Feb like both 47 and 56.

Very true. It would be good to have the cold to come, rather than it being all over by January. Retailers might appreciate it being later this year too.

So I hope we get a hugh siberian high tracking westwards towards Scotland in January, which holds firm against incursions from the Atlantic for a solid month or more

Edited November 29, 2011 by Partholon

[recklessabandon]

Temperatures have plunged behind the squall line as expected, but it was dramatic in the NE to say the least, left Tees-side at 2.30 pm fair conditions and 13C, arrived into Durham at 15.30 after an hour of very heavy rain; temperature dropped to 6C....

[Optimus Prime]

I wouldn't get too excited. There's very little support for any kind of widespread cold that will bring snow to a rather large area of the UK and the cold will probably be replaced by a milder period once the front has passed. Very little support for sustained cold but the first week of December looks set to be averaging rather cold compared to the mean.

Probably the first week of below average temperatures since August.

[Gorath]

I wouldn't get too excited. There's very little support for any kind of widespread cold that will bring snow to a rather large area of the UK

Oh shush, let me have my moment of fun

[recklessabandon]

Oh shush, let me have my moment of fun

Agreed, we haven't had much to hold onto this autumn! And for those of us in upland Co Durham, PM can do us just fine.....

[A Winter's Tale]

How about a POLAR LOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[johnholmes]

How about a POLAR LOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

best you wait a while as there is no sign of one yet-see my comments in the model thread and from TWS, they are very hard to pick up much beyond 48 hours out.

[Optimus Prime]

How about a POLAR LOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I also read what Steve posted - he's just pulling your leg, we don't get polar lows from NW'y winds.

Not trying to ruin anyones fun by the way, if sleet and chilly winds can be classed as particularly fun. What we had last year was arguably fun, what we're getting this year is a triple lesson in Mathematics.

[recklessabandon]

How about a POLAR LOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

More chance of seeing a Polar Bear right now IMO.....

[A Winter's Tale]

I was being a bit Sarcastic and trying to pull the legs of some of the members who announce their depression of the horrow show of an outlook on the model thread.

[Gorath]

More chance of seeing a Polar Bear right now IMO.....

We'll have to wait for tomorrow night for them bears.

Frozen planet is on the Beeb again, and the TV schedule is much easier to predict.

[recklessabandon]

We'll have to wait for tomorrow night for them bears.

Frozen planet is on the Beeb again, and the TV schedule is much easier to predict.

At least we might see some snow and ice then at least......maybe it should be a prescription for those reaching for the prozac already....

[ZONE 51]

Over the next few weeks(and some not to far off!) a risk of significant snow for Scotland, but also Northern high ground, possibly getting to lower ground.

For the South low ground, well we have to wait and see what turns up, all the time the cold air is inland over the North then its quite possible to pull this down across further South, its hard to snow down this way.

One thing for sure is alot of activity going on over the next week or two, with weather of many types!

Edited November 30, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[weathe20]

I have to admit I am disappointed so far with the prospects for this winter. With such a strong PV, it seems that limited PM shots are all we will get at best. With December starting tomorrow and 12 weeks of winter left something with have to change soon. I think there will be a chance of a good cold spell, but with no signs of anything for at least December this winter could just run away from us and before we know it it will be March. I sound depressing I know, but this winter just feels like any other normal UK winter. Zonal, wet with some snow for Scotland and high ground further south.

[A Winter's Tale]

I have to admit I am disappointed so far with the prospects for this winter. With such a strong PV, it seems that limited PM shots are all we will get at best. With December starting tomorrow and 12 weeks of winter left something with have to change soon. I think there will be a chance of a good cold spell, but with no signs of anything for at least December this winter could just run away from us and before we know it it will be March. I sound depressing I know, but this winter just feels like any other normal UK winter. Zonal, wet with some snow for Scotland and high ground further south.

You shouldn't feel disappointed yet, infact you should be more excited by what's in store! December looks to start off quite chilly and there may be some lower ground snow in the North. Beyond this is anyone's guess, but my feeling is that we will see polar maritime incursions with an active jet again before a cold spell sometime during the middle or latter part of the month so December may have a few chances for cold and snow.

As LS said on the Regional Thread, anything before December is a bonus as after the New Year is when It All Starts. I'm no expert but I think things might be projected to change after Christmas which could lead to some severe cold. Some people are going for a cold January and some others are going for a cold February so the timimng is uncertain (and it may not happen).

But if we had not had snow by February then perhaps by then things could be a lot more favourable for cold and snow and we can't even tell what next weeks cold spell will be like let alone a 3 month winter.

I feel quite optimistic that most LRFs for the winter are going for colder than average winter again. Member's LRFs are indicating December to be somewhere between Slightly below average to Slightly above, January is reall going to be cold for everyone andf Febuary is Below average to slightly above.

I am also a fan of RJS and I think his forecast for much of January and perhaps into February looks very good for cold and snow (and particulary in the south) and even December could see a cold spell.

So really, don't be disapointed with a winter that can throw up cold spell at such short notice and it lasts for a full 3 months starting from tomorrow. Really you should be excited about what it'll be like and with so many members and organisations going for a below average and a notable cold spell, then really it's looking like a thumbs up for some notable cold this winter - however if we get no cold then a helluva lot of people will be disapointed.

[weathe20]

You shouldn't feel disappointed yet, infact you should be more excited by what's in store! December looks to start off quite chilly and there may be some lower ground snow in the North. Beyond this is anyone's guess, but my feeling is that we will see polar maritime incursions with an active jet again before a cold spell sometime during the middle or latter part of the month so December may have a few chances for cold and snow.

As LS said on the Regional Thread, anything before December is a bonus as after the New Year is when It All Starts. I'm no expert but I think things might be projected to change after Christmas which could lead to some severe cold. Some people are going for a cold January and some others are going for a cold February so the timimng is uncertain (and it may not happen).

But if we had not had snow by February then perhaps by then things could be a lot more favourable for cold and snow and we can't even tell what next weeks cold spell will be like let alone a 3 month winter.

I feel quite optimistic that most LRFs for the winter are going for colder than average winter again. Member's LRFs are indicating December to be somewhere between Slightly below average to Slightly above, January is reall going to be cold for everyone andf Febuary is Below average to slightly above.

I am also a fan of RJS and I think his forecast for much of January and perhaps into February looks very good for cold and snow (and particulary in the south) and even December could see a cold spell.

So really, don't be disapointed with a winter that can throw up cold spell at such short notice and it lasts for a full 3 months starting from tomorrow. Really you should be excited about what it'll be like and with so many members and organisations going for a below average and a notable cold spell, then really it's looking like a thumbs up for some notable cold this winter - however if we get no cold then a helluva lot of people will be disapointed.

Thanks for getting my chin off the floor! Could you give me a link to RJS and the winter forecast. Thanks.

[kold weather]

Yeah its WAY too early to be concerned, as I said before if we were to have a mild December and first half of Jan, yet had a second half like Jan 85, or Feb 56 I doubt anyone on this forum will be complaning about having a milder start...

[Weather-history]

12 weeks of winter left .

All seasons are roughly 12 weeks long.

[cyclonic happiness]

Hopefully we may even get some sort of frontal snow from this 'cold snap' the sort we haven't had for ages and one of the only ways my part of the country ever gets to see a decent amount of snow.

I don't know why everyone's so obsessed with easterlies.....sometime we should look in the other direction for snow (sometimes )