Winter 2011/12 - General Discussion

[yukichon]

That model forum is a blur to me, I asked for a reference guide to all the abbreviations and got deleted...blimey!

I'm a complete novice wanting to learn from the pro's and my post gets deleted....thanks mods!

....anyway, that forum seems to be the most bi-polar place on earth, and I am yet to have seen someone forecast correctly beyond 3 days, it's always being put back, or up, down, over or under...can't we just get some snow please

[Aaron]

For anyone downhearted about winter, just read this post on TWO

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/yaf_postst6172_Winter-1872-73--the-long-wait.aspx

Very similar.. oh dear, am I pattern matching again!

[Peter H]

For anyone downhearted about winter, just read this post on TWO

http://www.theweathe...-long-wait.aspx

Very similar.. oh dear, am I pattern matching again!

Actually, I think that's how they used to (and probably still do to an extent) work out the monthly long range weather forecasts.

Would be nice to see some proper winter weather in February although, my oil's getting a bit low now and it's hellish expensive (and likely to get dearer) and the moment.

I see the BBC are now mentioning significantly colder weather is now possible by the middle of next week, although RTE haven't said anything at all today.

Edited January 25, 2012 by Peter H

[damianslaw]

The long term hemispheric patterns have been for the coldest weather to occur later this winter than earlier and this certainly appears to be case. I see no reason to say no chance of any cold for the rest of the winter - far from it a cold February looks preety likely and potential for a very cold Feb. Strat warming, weak PV, strong heights to our NE, a quiet atlantic - as usually occurs in Feb all spell colder outlook rather than milder outlook.

[Weather-history]

For anyone downhearted about winter, just read this post on TWO

http://www.theweathe...-long-wait.aspx

Very similar.. oh dear, am I pattern matching again!

If you look in the history section on this site, I posted that just after Christmas,. We are the same person.

Despite the pundits in the stratospheric thread and others, I'm not convinced we are going to see that much of wintry weather for the rest of the official winter despite that post I did on TWO. Just doesn't seem to be happening this winter.

Spring maybe different, we recently had the coldest winter for 31 years for the CET and the coolest summer for the CET for 23 years, I see no reason why we can't have a notably cool spring, we are long overdue a cold April.

[PLANET THANET]

where is GP just when he is needed on the model thread , I havent seen any of his posts for a few days now (unless i have missed them) to see what his latest thoughts are with all this uncertainty

[feb1991blizzard]

where is GP just when he is needed on the model thread , I havent seen any of his posts for a few days now (unless i have missed them) to see what his latest thoughts are with all this uncertainty

His last post was on the 22nd, very concerning, i am really beginnig to think its over now, looking at the gargage output this morning,

[Peter H]

Despite the pundits in the stratospheric thread and others, I'm not convinced we are going to see that much of wintry weather for the rest of the official winter despite that post I did on TWO. Just doesn't seem to be happening this winter.

Spring maybe different, we recently had the coldest winter for 31 years for the CET and the coolest summer for the CET for 23 years, I see no reason why we can't have a notably cool spring, we are long overdue a cold April

Well, in my opinion snow in late March, April, and early May is rubbish and no better than a cool wet spring (like we had last year). It doesn't really settle and it's nothing more than a nuisance, especially when you're looking forward to better weather after the winter.

However, the Met Office appear to be of the opinion that the cold will win out over the next week, although there is still some uncertainty

:

UK Outlook for Tuesday 31 Jan 2012 to Thursday 9 Feb 2012:

At the beginning of the week, although there is a lot of uncertainty, eastern and central areas will most likely see clear/sunny spells, and scattered showers, these mostly light but locally wintry. Westernmost areas will probably see more cloud, with occasional rain. Temperatures will probably be below average, the cold accentuated further by fresh winds from an eastern quadrant. Towards the end of the week and through the rest of the period, a general continuation of the cold weather type seems most likely, but it is by no means certain. There is a risk of snow, ice and sharp frosts, with easternmost parts being most prone. However we certainly cannot discount the possibility that mild west/southwesterly winds will return instead, bringing rain at times

UK Outlook for Friday 10 Feb 2012 to Friday 24 Feb 2012:

The forecast for mid-February remains very uncertain. However, the most likely outcome is for much colder weather with winds mainly from an easterly quadrant to prevail, bringing widespread frosts, and snow to some areas. In this scenario it would be the east that would be most vulnerable to snowfall. There remains an alternative scenario, in which milder westerly winds prevail, the chances of this alternative scenario are currently rated as about one in three.

Though I'm not really sure how much snow us folk in the west will get.

It should be interesting to see what happens over the next few days.

Edited January 26, 2012 by Peter H

[jean91]

Some snow showers forecasted for Paris area on Saturday.Next week we could be in for some serious freezing night temps ( we could reach -7c in less urban suburbs) .

Winter is at last coming our way for our part here!!!

[Guest]

Current developments with the High centered over the White Sea appear to be the best we have seen all winter - the temps in Moscow have dropped nicely, so there is a possible chance of an easterly set up - however it is a bit late in coming this year and as time evolves in next 3 to 4 weeks we will start to reach the point where the northward encroachment of spring will start to warm things up gradually. I think we are in with a chance of getting some nice snow in the southeast but I'm not putting any money on it - pity that this situation did not develop a month ago.

Edited January 27, 2012 by mike Meehan

[Peter H]

_{RTE appear to be running with changable weather next week and have now dropped any prospect of an intense cold spell.}

_{The weather information site are also going with the westerly theme in their models now.}

_{The BBC are still sticking with the battle scenario though.}

Edited January 27, 2012 by Peter H

[Guest]

_{RTE appear to be running with changable weather next week and have now dropped any prospect of an intense cold spell.}

_{The weather information site are also going with the westerly theme in their models now.}

_{The BBC are still sticking with the battle scenario though.}

The battle is not yet over - it could go either way, probablt that's why the Met O are hedging their bets.

[La Bise]

Peter H, what are those websites and models showing westerlies you are talking about?

[TobyT]

Meto still going with mostly cold for the next week slightly milder at times in the west. Most of the latest runs are also going with the push from the east moving further west so starting to look more promising for cold, still not set in stone of course but looking far more likely now. Looks like I could be seeing a bit of the white stuff here in the east before too long.

[La Bise]

I'm in Switzerland next week-end, no doubt about what the temps will be over there...I'm packing lots of insulation!

[weatherobsuk]

MetO currently on a level2 'cold weather alert' status in terms of impact this event will have, however discussion is that they might raise it to level3 on the next output.

[leicsnow]

The highlight of this winter was always going to come towards the end, as has been said many times before. It seems that we could still have a memorable event lasting some time, and this winter could be mentioned as the fourth in a row of colder winters. Over the last month, there have been GFS and ECM etc runs showing cold in FI, before backtracking again. The cold which is currently quite close range and has shown for a week or so seemed from the start the stuff which was going to "come off".

Edited January 29, 2012 by Tellow

[Peter H]

Meto still going with mostly cold for the next week slightly milder at times in the west. Most of the latest runs are also going with the push from the east moving further west so starting to look more promising for cold, still not set in stone of course but looking far more likely now. Looks like I could be seeing a bit of the white stuff here in the east before too long.

The highlight of this winter was always going to come towards the end.

Well, hardly a highlight in this part of the UK

A few days of rather cold dry weather with rain and milder temperatures by Friday, at least according to the latest BBC forecast maps on Ceefax. Hardly Earth shattering.

Looks like this all too brief cold spell is going to be a largely dry snowless one.

The best we can hope for is a few light showers of snow grains along the east coast, At least according to RTE.

Wow !

Edited January 29, 2012 by Peter H

[Peter H]

Latest Weather information Site models are now showing southwesterlies again by the middle of next week, with that damned high pressure to the south of us back and stuck over France and Spain:

http://www.ukweather.freeserve.co.uk/nwp.htm

[sundog]

Well, hardly a highlight in this part of the UK

A few days of rather cold dry weather with rain and milder temperatures by Friday, at least according to the latest BBC forecast maps on Ceefax. Hardly Earth shattering.

Looks like this all too brief cold spell is going to be a largely dry snowless one.

The best we can hope for is a few light showers of snow grains along the east coast, At least according to RTE.

Wow !

The way i see it nobody really knows whats going to happen,its one of those set ups where there could be big upgrades or it all goes rather pear shaped. Who knows what the models will be showing tomorrow. But the potential for something special is still there imo.

[Evening thunder]

I can't help but think the Met Office are being rather conservative with their forecast min temps later this week on their website, under high pressure with -10C 850hpa temps the mins will be far lower than -3C/-4C.

Edited January 30, 2012 by Stormmad26

[TobyT]

I can't help but think the Met Office are being rather conservative with their forecast min temps later this week on their website, under high pressure with -10C 850hpa temps the mins will be far lower than -3C/-4C.

Have to say I agree totally with you on this one just have to wait and see.

[TobyT]

Well, hardly a highlight in this part of the UK

A few days of rather cold dry weather with rain and milder temperatures by Friday, at least according to the latest BBC forecast maps on Ceefax. Hardly Earth shattering.

Looks like this all too brief cold spell is going to be a largely dry snowless one.

The best we can hope for is a few light showers of snow grains along the east coast, At least according to RTE.

Wow !

My post was never intended to be Earth Shattering as you put it, just my take on the current situation as it was.

Edited January 30, 2012 by TobyT

[Peter H]

The way i see it nobody really knows whats going to happen,its one of those set ups where there could be big upgrades or it all goes rather pear shaped. Who knows what the models will be showing tomorrow. But the potential for something special is still there imo.

My post was never intended to be Earth Shattering as you put it, just my take on the current situation as it was.

Well, here we are in tomorrow and things have definitely firmed up somewhat.

RTE's latest forecasts this evening are predicting temperatures in Ireland back up to 10 by Saturday, along with heavy rain. No snow at all this week.

Likewise, the BBC's forecast maps have the west of the UK at least back into mild weather on both Friday and Saturday along with heavy rain (not snow).

A few days of rather cold dry weather is simply rubbish.

Notice the press have yet again latched onto this with some ridiculous and outlandish headines.

You can wish all you like for snow. It just ain't going to happen this winter.

Current conditions here are partly cloudy and dry with a temperature of plus 4. Nothing unusual about that..

.

[Peter H]

Confirmed by Saturday's synoptic chart::

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack4.gif

Yet another predicted cold spell bites the dust.