Winter 2011/12 - General Discussion

[virtualsphere]

The best things about this winter were the Atlantic storms and thundersnow in December (didn't accumulate though). The other abiding memory is the frustation of missing out on several decent snow events by hair's breadth getting rain/slush instead. A couple of decent frosts were about as good as it got. One of the worst winters in memory here, as it stands it's joint worst with 2007-2008 (where we also failed to manage a decent covering) over the past decade or so.

Considering the current model outlook, I'd give this winter 2/10.

Past few winters:

2011-2012 - 2/10

2010-2011 - 9/10

2009-2010 - 9/10

2008-2009 - 7.5/10

2007-2008 - 2/10

2006-2007 - 5/10

2005-2006 - 7.5/10

I'd agree with your comments. I've been reluctant to write off winter too early, especially as Feb started with the promise of some proper winter weather, but sadly the cold temperatures were shortlived here and we've seen no lying snow so far. There's still a few weeks left where we could see some lying snow, but the models don't look promising.

Having said that I think we've done well in Wales for snow generally over the last decade in comparison with other parts of the UK so maybe it was our turn to miss out this year.

From a personal point of view I'd give 2007-08 a higher score than this year as I enjoyed the frequent hail showers that winter. 2006-07 would have been dismal but it was rescued by an exceptional but shortlived snowfall event in February which delivered in one afternoon snow as deep as anything we had in 2009, 10, 11. Sadly it was gone about 2 days later.

[Peter H]

The BBC are now forecasting that max. tempts wed/Thurs could get into the mid to high teens over parts of the UK (despite the fact that we are currently having another wee skiff of snow, like the one in the middle of December).which is quite exceptional for this time of year.

So, February 2012 looks like it'll be a very mild month overall , even for those that got the snow and the cold at the beginning.

Interesting that Weatheronline got the position of last weeks high quite correct, but didn't predict the source of the air would be from tropical regions, hence the mild Northwesterlies.

Still, I regard this winter as being all but over now. Even the sleety snow showers we're having today is more like spring weather and not winter.

[Peter H]

even late Novemebr-mid December 2010 was getting a trifle much

.

Indeed John, it cured us of white Christmases in these parts, at least for a wee while !

[johnholmes]

So, February 2012 looks like it'll be a very mild month overall , even for those that got the snow and the cold at the beginning.

Peter-at it again being less than realistic with regards to the month ending up 'very mild' for those that had the cold and snow. Neither of us can be certain but it seems unlikely that those parts will end 4 or 5C above average by the end of the month.

Best we wait until the various stations publish their temperatures but I'll be very surprised if they end up 'very mild'.

[jean91]

For my area , i am really lucky to have had the 12 day cold wave.Still yesterday evening , i was crossing a park and saw a lake still with a thin layer of ice that 6 days after end of freeze!!!!

Although we missed out the snow for my area , ok had 2cm here, would it had not been for this cold wave , this winter was to be forgotten.But many areas in France will remember Winter 2012 for and only thanks to this 12 day period.

I just take what is offered at me!!!!No chance for an average month here, even if anomaly will be up a a tiny bit

It is in sharp ( cannot find a stronger word!!) contrast with December National anomaly +2c and January +1.5c ( locally much higher of course)

Ps Anomaly based on 1971-2000.

[TEITS]

This Feb certainly could end up showing some extreme differences in temps. On the 11th Feb my region recorded -15.9C and yet on the 23rd we could record +17C.

Such a shame some of GPs forecasts for the end of Feb were wrong because if anything we're going to see the complete opposite with the record max temp for Feb being under threat!

[Bristawl Si]

This Feb certainly could end up showing some extreme differences in temps. On the 11th Feb my region recorded -15.9C and yet on the 23rd we could record +17C.

Such a shame some of GPs forecasts for the end of Feb were wrong because if anything we're going to see the complete opposite with the record max temp for Feb being under threat!

Yes certainly looks like the end of winter part of the forecast is going the way of the pear.

That Azores HP has been really dominant this winter - i stated in my regional thread in November that i thought the weather 'law of averages' would mean we'd see a rather benign and not too cold winter down here, after the last 3 winters (and i got poo-pooed for applying a 'law of averages'!).

So what we've had has been no surprise to me whatsoever.

Even in the spell of colder, snowier winters between 78 and 87 we had some that were fairly mild, almost snowless ones.

Edited February 19, 2012 by Bristle boy

[onemanmows]

Another IMBY one from me, yesterday 19th Feb, was the fourth Saturday in a row where I've seen falling or lying snow. The general view may be so what, my point is this winter has not delivered in terms of snow cover or deep cold. It has though, in the Peak, delivered winter conditions. There have been two blocks of cold this winter and in terms of weekends and winter conditions its been more winter and mild. Continuing a welcome trend in the Pennines. It's the fourth winter in a row where I've had a week or more disruption to the day job due to snow on the hills. This didn't happen in 2006/07 and 07/08. Although the later did deliver snow / froast and ice above 500m regularly during the March of that year. The curious thing for me about this winter and the last one as well is large snow accumulations dont seem to be happening in the Pennines. Ultimately really pear shaped winter is one where you dont get winter conditions where you might expect them - in the hills!

If we're going to see parts of the country hit 17degC plus this week - doesnt that mean temps have passed right through mild and are now into warm?

[Peter H]

Even in the spell of colder, snowier winters between 78 and 87 we had some that were fairly mild, almost snowless ones

Both 79/80 and 80/81 were pretty mild, 79/80 exceptionally so.

From what I can remember, 81/82,82/83,83/84,and 84/85 all had either cold and snowy Dec/Jan or a cold and snowyJan/Feb, Winter 85/86 was mostly mild up until the end of January, but had an exceptionally cold (but largely snowless) February. 86/87 was mostly mild, apart from that exceptional cold spell at the start of Jan 87 (which we caught the tail end of for a few days)

So I think you were quite right to suggest this winter could be mostly mild and benign, despite some silly stories in the press.

Hopefully, winter 2012/13 will deliver something a bit better than this one.

Edited February 19, 2012 by Peter H

[Peter H]

Peter-at it again being less than realistic with regards to the month ending up 'very mild' for those that had the cold and snow. Neither of us can be certain but it seems unlikely that those parts will end 4 or 5C above average by the end of the month.

Best we wait until the various stations publish their temperatures but I'll be very surprised if they end up 'very mild'.

Well, it certainly wont be "cold" as some were suggesting at the start of the month John.

It'll certainly be very mild in these parts though.

[David-kig]

poor winter overall. goes with the forecast back in november and ecm's seasonal forecast. azores high is a pain!!!!!! p.v over greenland to!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

winter over now (except scotland) only 1 lot of decent snow Feb 4th, 2 dustings, feb 10th and 19th, sleet/wet snow dec 16-18th, suppose not a bad winter considering its 2012! not the legendary 1990's anymore

like it or not our winters are less snowy since 2000, and shorter, no Ian Brown but everyone I know thinks this

Edited February 19, 2012 by snow? norfolk n chance

[spindrift1980]

winter over now (except scotland) only 1 lot of decent snow Feb 4th, 2 dustings, feb 10th and 19th, sleet/wet snow dec 16-18th, suppose not a bad winter considering its 2012! not the legendary 1990's anymore

like it or not our winters are less snowy since 2000, and shorter, no Ian Brown but everyone I know thinks this

The 1990s had 'legendary' winters?! I can only assume you are fairly young!

[Alex95]

The 1990s had 'legendary' winters?! I can only assume you are fairly young!

09/10 and 10/11 were far better than any of the 90s winters for snow. Even Feb 91. And if you live in London or the South West Feb 09 was good too, but I only saw 4-5 inches here, and it only lasted 24 hours.

Of course February 1991 was colder, but less snowy for Newcastle anyway. I think 25cm fell here in 91. I suppose Christmas Day 1995 will take some beating, 10cm of snow and frequent heavy snow showers. Christmas Day 2010 had a similar amount lying, but non falling, and there was 5cm of thawing snow on Christmas Day 2009.

EDIT: Actually, didn't a small part of the Midlands miss out in the last couple of winters? That may explain his opinion.

Edited February 19, 2012 by Alza 2

[Aaron]

I wouldn't call any winter in the 1990's legendary.

However, in January 1995, Leeds got 40cm of snow in 3 hours, that's pretty impressive and I'd love to see that again.

[nick sussex]

I think the winter in this part of France can be summed up as two weeks of very cold conditions with some snow earlier in February and thats it, the rest of the winter has been utter rubbish.

It was interesting reading the Meteo France analysis of the recent cold conditions, lack of wider snow cover and too much wind negated against more records being broken.

However some February records were broken especially towards central and sw regions, one thing that stands out initially was the powdery nature of the snow and so many night times hitting close to the -10 c mark.

The winter climate down here can often be very volatile, you can have warm southerlies and temps easily approaching 18c especially helped by the fohn effect then a few days later sub zero maxima.

Although easterlies often lose their bite into March I've still recorded a sub zero March maximum in 2010, that came off the infamous Med low which produced snow in Barcelona and Valencia and several very cold days.

In fact the bizarrest weather occured that same spring where we had temps of 29c at the end of April, followed by the coldest May day ever recorded in this region on the 4th where rain unbelievably turned to snow.

Although I'm at 1,250ft thats still an exceptional event.

[feb1991blizzard]

I wouldn't call any winter in the 1990's legendary.

However, in January 1995, Leeds got 40cm of snow in 3 hours, that's pretty impressive and I'd love to see that again.

I would call 90-91 as one of the best i experienced but i was 100 miles further south then so it may not have been as good for the North, that would be the only one i would call legendary though, there was 1996 which was a very good winter and there were individul events in 93/94 and 94/95 winters which were decent individual events, conversely, i would have probably thought that those events were better had i lived up here then.

Was that 40cm on a wednesday in late January by any chance? and was that the same event where something like 3 inches fell in 20 mins

Edited February 19, 2012 by BUSTED FLUSH

[I remember Atlantic 252]

09/10 and 10/11 were far better than any of the 90s winters for snow. Even Feb 91. And if you live in London or the South West Feb 09 was good too, but I only saw 4-5 inches here, and it only lasted 24 hours.

Of course February 1991 was colder, but less snowy for Newcastle anyway. I think 25cm fell here in 91. I suppose Christmas Day 1995 will take some beating, 10cm of snow and frequent heavy snow showers. Christmas Day 2010 had a similar amount lying, but non falling, and there was 5cm of thawing snow on Christmas Day 2009.

EDIT: Actually, didn't a small part of the Midlands miss out in the last couple of winters? That may explain his opinion.

Didnt miss out at all, but not as snowy as most winters in the 90's, 95-96 and 96-97 being the best, 97-98 good as well,

Edited February 19, 2012 by snow? norfolk n chance

[feb1991blizzard]

However some February records were broken especially towards central and sw regions, one thing that stands out initially was the powdery nature of the snow and so many night times hitting close to the -10 c mark.

.

At least you had a stonking couple of weeks worth Nick and to be honest i wouldnt begrudge you a decent fall, you always bat for us on here, hoping to get us in the freezer!

Personally it has been a very disappointing winter, although i have to say that is because the bar has been raised in recent winters, i had nearly 2 inches on december the 18th in less than an hour from some of the biggest flakes i have ever seen, an inch on the last friday in Jan and nearly 3 inches the first saturday in February which did not totally disappear for 10 days, i did not see that much snow in any of the winters between 96/97 and 08/09 although i did live 100 miles further south until 07 and 11 miles further west than here in 08/09.

[Aaron]

Was that 40cm on a wednesday in late January by any chance? and was that the same event where something like 3 inches fell in 20 mins

Yes, the 25th

[Thundery wintry showers]

I doubt that the winter quarter of 1997/98 would have been good from a snow lover's perspective in the Midlands- yes there were a few brief cold snaps (a sluggish northerly on 1st-3rd December, a south-easterly mid-December, a 36-hour northerly on the 19th January) but generally speaking it was one of the mildest and most snowless winters even by the standards of 1988-2008. The most notable thing about 1997/98 was the exceptional high temperatures during February, accompanied by bright sunshine in some parts of the country making for an almost summer-like spell of weather.

The 1994/95 winter was mild and December and February largely snowless but January 1995 did have repeated short-lived snowfalls in central and northern areas, plus one that penetrated to some southern areas around New Year's Day.

Across most parts of the country, the snowiest winters of the 90s were 1990/91, 1993/94 and 1995/96, and 1996/97 was notable for an extended spell of snow cover from 30 December to around 10 January in some central and eastern parts of England. But with just localised exceptions, none of them were as snowy as 2009/10. Maybe the 1990s winters appealed by comparison with those of 2000-08 but the winters of 2009-11 rather put the snowier winters of the 1990s into perspective.

[feb1991blizzard]

Yes, the 25th

Thought it was. If i remember rightly i then had a brief 1 inch (Midlands) on the friday as a neutrally tilted front swept in and then it turned to rain but areas further North got some heavy if fairly brief falls.

Lets hope the GFS 18z is a sign of things to come and we were writng off snow too early, i somehow doubt it though!

Edited February 19, 2012 by BUSTED FLUSH

[Eugene]

It snowed overnight last night :o

Didnt give as much as the two week deep freeze did here in the countryside but still surprised me, felt perishing out in that northerly wind when i was out early in the morning, warmed up quickly once the sun came up though but in the shade the dew points made it feel winter like today.

Very interesting GFS 18Z FI run with northerly blocking taking over giving us some superb wintry synoptics, time is running out for proper cold now and temps of 17C you have well over 6 months potential for warmth.

[Eugene]

We only have to cast our minds back to 2006? (I think), to see what a waste of time they are for most

LOL that late Feb easterly lead to a month long freeze until late March, definately not a waste of time was that prolonged cold spell especially for northern and eastern members, i remember it well in warwickshire too with frozen ponds in strong sunshine in mid march :o, another month long cold spell like that please

[nick sussex]

At least you had a stonking couple of weeks worth Nick and to be honest i wouldnt begrudge you a decent fall, you always bat for us on here, hoping to get us in the freezer!

Personally it has been a very disappointing winter, although i have to say that is because the bar has been raised in recent winters, i had nearly 2 inches on december the 18th in less than an hour from some of the biggest flakes i have ever seen, an inch on the last friday in Jan and nearly 3 inches the first saturday in February which did not totally disappear for 10 days, i did not see that much snow in any of the winters between 96/97 and 08/09 although i did live 100 miles further south until 07 and 11 miles further west than here in 08/09.

Yes I really shouldn't complain, at least I did get to see some notable cold and a little snow, as we head towards March its always a bit disappointing as you realize that the winter is behind you and that you need some great synoptics to deliver.

Maybe March might deliver a few surprises.