Winter 2011/12 - General Discussion

[TEITS]

Of course we'll see another cover by Sunday C, but it'll be gone again by midweek and that makes things very tough for an industry that needs a reliable, sustainable cover though Jan/Feb and ideally into March. Been a poor Winter season so far for the Scottish resorts, perhaps not by mid 2000's standards, but certainly by the last few.

Just checked the stats for Aviemore and the last time lying snow was recorded was on the 13th Jan. I knew it had been a poor season but I didn't realise it was as bad as this. The lowest max temp for Feb so far is +2.5C!

[Polar Maritime]

Looks like most of the ski slopes in Scotland are up and running and have been for a good while, with good conditions.

http://www.winterhig...d.info/general/

And it would of been sub freezing up on the slopes up in the mountains, where it's most needed for the SSI to hold the snow.

Edited February 16, 2012 by Polar Maritime

[AutumnMists]

As for this Winter, I really think thats it now for cold weather. Of course we may well get some cold shots during Spring and if we do then great, but I don't think it's worth getting hopes up for. IMO It's very unlikely now that southern areas in particular will see any lasting snow cover, areas further north stand a better chance.

Good job I live in the Pennines then

[AutumnMists]

I think it is just important to take in mind that the following do not necessarily affect what we will see in March;

- The fact we have had an overall mild winter

- The fact this week and next week have/look like they will be mild

- The fact March in the past few years since 2009 hasn't offered anything too cold

[jean91]

Really hard to get from 12 days that were so cold and sunny and this week grey and grey and grey and temps just about average a bit over or a bit under!!!!!???

Guess it is a hard landing back to reality.Some lakes still have some ice on surface ( been defreezing since sunday night to monday morning and nto been freezing since!!!!!!)really gives out that ice was thick on small park lakes.

Going to get a frost this weekend though, -2c forecasted for my suburbs!!!!!!!nice no?

[damianslaw]

Just checked the stats for Aviemore and the last time lying snow was recorded was on the 13th Jan. I knew it had been a poor season but I didn't realise it was as bad as this. The lowest max temp for Feb so far is +2.5C!

Yes - indicative of the cold being locked in central europe with a SE feed and Scotland seeing a milder SW feed this month. Poor statistic it has to be said for Aviemore, but I suspect Sunday will see a max no better than 2 degrees in Aviemore and some welcome snow cover.

After a very good start to the season for snow on our mountains, things went pear shaped in the run up to christmas and haven't really recovered since thanks to the absence of polar unstable air. We did see a cold polar shot on the 26/27 Jan which brought some very decent powder snow which did survive up until last weekend, but the mild weather of the last few days has thawed most of the snow. This weekends snow will quickly dissapear early next week.

However, I've known many a March and April day to be brutal on our high ground with sudden blizzards thanks to polar airstreams - so there is a long way to go yet until the winter ski season and mountaineering season has finished. But yes for those who want very cold powder snow conditions, it becomes much more difficult to sustain such conditions once we enter late Feb.

One thing to remember is northerlies and easterlies are far more likely in the spring than they are in the winter especially the first half of the winter when sustained northerlies are really not the norm. Indeed the month of the year when northerlies reach their yearly maxim is May! Also the upper air takes a long long time to warm up during the spring - so any potent northerly that surfaces in March and April and even May usually delivers the snowy goods still to our northern hills thanks to very high lapse rates and evaporative cooling - this is the reason for all those spring snowfalls that have occured during the past.

Edited February 16, 2012 by damianslaw

[Peter H]

Really hard to get from 12 days that were so cold and sunny and this week grey and grey and grey and temps just about average a bit over or a bit under!!!!!???

Indeed, I was rubbished a few days ago for even daring to suggest February would be an overall very mild month, despite the very cold first week for some parts of the UK. Well, apart from 36 hours of normal winter weather this weekend, next week looks very mild indeeed:

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?MENU=Week-ahead

Becoming unseasonably mild A colder weekend Issued: 0810 Friday 17th February 2012 Duty forecaster: John Ejdowski Turning settled Temperatures are expected to fall this weekend as a front moves south on Saturday. Much milder conditions then will come in from the west as it becomes progressively milder this week, even very mild by Thursday. As high pressure develops most of the rain will then become confined to northern Scotland later in the week.

Unfortunately, the UK has been in a weather rut for virtually all of this winter and it's going to be very hard to get out of it.

Hope winter 2012/13 is better than this one has been.

Edited February 17, 2012 by Peter H

[Isolated Frost]

Looks like you are going to be terribly wrong with your 'very mild' prediction for February.

Central and Eastern England should end up slightly below. The rest of England, Wales and much of southern Scotland should be around average, whilst some parts of Scotland and Ireland should be a bit milder.

Please clarify your posts Peter- where in particular are you talking about when you say 'very mild'? The UK as a whole should be around average, or slightly above (up to 1c above tops)... Nothing overly mild.

[Eugene]

Yes i cant see the month ending up very mild because it was just so cold in the first half, still a big contrast looking likely between first half and second half with some very mild temps for next thursday, should be better than today also with more sunshine likely, really cant see where the next cold spell after the very brief one this weekend is coming from TBH, its as dire as it gets to me for cold weather fans looking at the output today, UKMO 00Z was horrendous at T+144 hrs and would keep us very mild for days.

[johnholmes]

Indeed, I was rubbished a few days ago for even daring to suggest February would be an overall very mild month, despite the very cold first week for some parts of the UK. Well, apart from 36 hours of normal winter weather this weekend, next week looks very mild indeeed:

http://www.weatheron...MENU=Week-ahead

Unfortunately, the UK has been in a weather rut for virtually all of this winter and it's going to be very hard to get out of it.

Hope winter 2012/13 is better than this one has been.

you are a real ray of sunshine Peter-I do hope you are able to have a hot summer but to talk of, at least for the CET area, February turning out to be a very mild month is pretty far fetched. The daily max from now to the 29th would have to be even higher than GFS is suggesting for some days next week.

The Met O definition of 'very mild' is 4 to 5C above the expected value.

The CET average for February is I think about 4.2C

Edited February 17, 2012 by johnholmes

[Eugene]

I really don't think next week is looking completely like spring, tuesday and wednesday are wet and windy and it wont feel that springlike in strong winds with rainfall, thursday is the day that could feel like spring with warm uppers, lighter winds and less cloud cover but it looks like a very temporary thing with cooler air by friday afternoon.

　

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack3.gif

　

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack4.gif

Edited February 17, 2012 by Eugene

[Aaron]

It annoys me when people say 'Spring is arriving early'. Have we learned nothing from 2007, 2008 and 2011?

[AutumnMists]

I just don't understand why someone could possibly rule out no more cold until December ... seems silly

[SnowObsessor90]

I just don't understand why someone could possibly rule out no more cold until December ... seems silly

Who, me?

That was kneejerk spur of the moment thing. I'm quite often prone to it.

Seriously though if we don't get anything which I'm 'not' ruling out btw despite what may have earlier then then the possibility of not seeing anything until next December certainly wouldn't be an implausible scenario.

Edited February 18, 2012 by Anonymous21

[TEITS]

I just don't understand why someone could possibly rule out no more cold until December ... seems silly

Pretty much guarantee a few more cold spells are likely until April. However for me personally I lose interest in cold spells from late Feb onwards because any lying snow will quickly melt even if temps, dewpoints are below freezing. What I look forward to in Spring is warmer temps and heavy showers/thunderstorms.

Going back to this winter and I really do feel sorry for those in missed out on the recent E,ly. This really has been a dreadful winter not just weatherwise but synoptically. The AZH has been dominant and at no stage during the winter has SLP been higher over Iceland compared to the Azores. Even the E,ly was disappointing for many members and I do realise that considering the synoptics my location was extremely lucky to see the snowfall. A shift of around 100miles E and it would of been rain for all of us including the SE.

The real blow has been Feb because when you consider what the teleconnections were suggesting only recently and you then look at the model output you would be forgiven for thinking it was early Dec. The only way the teleconnections have been correct is if you view the current model output but you turn your monitor/laptop upside down. :lol:

[Partholon]

Yes, it is disappointing to see the pv firing up again after the background signals suggested the opposite.

Still, I'm hoping for a March like 1985, that would be a shock to the system for those who believe spring can't deliver decent cold outbreaks

Edited February 18, 2012 by Partholon

[Eugene]

Cooling trend after thursday with the chance of temps near 0C friday night, not a cold spell but temps less mild than the mid teens possible on thursday.

[Eugene]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-19-1-132.png?6 - This perturbation brings in much colder 850's as soon as thursday evening, this is an extreme example but maybe over the next few days thursdays mildness will be tapered.

[Weather-history]

Manchester Winter Index

1988-89: 20

2006-07: 21

1997-98: 25

1974-75: 26

1989-90: 26

1973-74: 30

1987-88: 37

2007-08: 37

1991-92: 40

1975-76: 41

1999-00: 42

1992-93: 43

2002-03: 44

1994-95: 45

2011-12: 46 up to 17th February

1998-99: 47

2004-05: 47

2003-04: 50

2001-02: 50

2005-06: 59

1979-80: 66

1996-97: 72

2000-01: 77

1993-94: 78

1983-84: 82

1982-83: 85

1980-81: 90

1977-78: 90

1986-87: 100

2008-09: 105

2010-11: 119

1990-91: 126

1995-96: 135

1984-85: 140

1976-77: 141

1981-82: 149

1985-86: 159

2009-10: 197

1978-79: 262

Edited February 18, 2012 by Mr_Data

[Summer Sun]

Alothough later next week looks like becoming very mild I doubt the UK record of 19.6°C which was recorded in Worcester on the 13 - 2 - 1998 will be broken.

[johnholmes]

Had there been a 7-10 day cold spell in December similar in cold and snow to the February one, winter would have been close to perfect for me. Two week long -10 day cold spells with snow and frost and the rest of winter a mix of mild, some sun (a fair amount this winter), some unsettled rather windy spells-yes my ideal. The only thing missing this February was there was no ice day, a couple of those in each cold spell-then that is my ideal winter!

No I know it does not satisfy the intense long lasting cold and persistent snow some of you crave but then I have memories of 1947, 1962-63,( and other winter months since); they will do without repeat thank you, even late Novemebr-mid December 2010 was getting a trifle much.

Edited February 18, 2012 by johnholmes

[Catacol]

Had there been a 7-10 day cold spell in December similar in cold and snow to the February one, winter would have been close to perfect for me. Two week long -10 day cold spells with snow and frost and the rest of winter a mix of mild, some sun (a fair amount this winter), some unsettled rather windy spells-yes my ideal. The only thing missing this February was there was no ice day, a couple of those in each cold spell-then that is my ideal winter!

No I know it does not satisfy the intense long lasting cold and persistent snow some of you crave but then I have memories of 1947, 1962-63,( and other winter months since); they will do without repeat thank you, even late Novemebr-mid December 2010 was getting a trifle much.

Then you have been very lucky. The SW has not seen a flake all winter unless you are on Exmoor or Dartmoor, and a handful of windscreen scraping frosts hardly constitutes a winter to me. It has been the worst in a number of years down here for cold... so far.

[Bobby]

The best things about this winter were the Atlantic storms and thundersnow in December (didn't accumulate though). The other abiding memory is the frustation of missing out on several decent snow events by hair's breadth getting rain/slush instead. A couple of decent frosts were about as good as it got. One of the worst winters in memory here, as it stands it's joint worst with 2007-2008 (where we also failed to manage a decent covering) over the past decade or so.

Considering the current model outlook, I'd give this winter 2/10.

Past few winters:

2011-2012 - 2/10

2010-2011 - 9/10

2009-2010 - 9/10

2008-2009 - 7.5/10

2007-2008 - 2/10

2006-2007 - 5/10

2005-2006 - 7.5/10

[bluearmy]

the extended ens modelling continues to show below av temps for large parts of north america, china and europe. i wonder what the global NH feb averages will come out at. i suspect at the mid lattitudes, this could well be a notably cold month. i recall an early winter forecast from somewhere that did say europe would be particularly cold late winter but the northwest of the continent would miss out on the low temps. very frustrating but we've been here quite a few times over winters past - watching the frigid air not so far to our southeast.

[on the coast]

Had there been a 7-10 day cold spell in December similar in cold and snow to the February one, winter would have been close to perfect for me. Two week long -10 day cold spells with snow and frost and the rest of winter a mix of mild, some sun (a fair amount this winter), some unsettled rather windy spells-yes my ideal. The only thing missing this February was there was no ice day, a couple of those in each cold spell-then that is my ideal winter!

No I know it does not satisfy the intense long lasting cold and persistent snow some of you crave but then I have memories of 1947, 1962-63,( and other winter months since); they will do without repeat thank you, even late Novemebr-mid December 2010 was getting a trifle much.

I agree with you. February gave us a taste of winter here with 8 days of lying snow and an ice day. We had 2 good days in which snow fell leaving around 3" each time. The severity of last year was maybe something alot of us wont see again for along time. A bit like the summer of 76.