Winter 2011/12 - General Discussion

[bluearmy]

Can't help being "reeled in" by the number 1 on that list. http://modeles.meteo...956-2-2-0-2.png http://modeles.meteo...56-2-14-0-0.png

without the azores high, we were very close to that setup a few weeks ago.

[feb1991blizzard]

I have learned a few things over the course of this winter, one of which is viewing the Ensembles in full gives you a far better perspective on things rather than just looking at the uppers graph, and one straw to clutch, and yes i know it is deep FI, is that there are some interesting possibilities in the 18z GEFS suite, there are only about 5 or six that are zonal right the way through, admittedly there are only a few that deliver widespread snow events but there are a good number of close but no cigar members that with a bit of tweaking could deliver, i would say that the possibility of the high ridging far enough North to deliver potent cold into the UK cannot be discounted completely, the Stratospheric profile isnt that bad that the strong PV is guaranteed to last for any length of time, for what its worth, i think a high over us with any cold going into Europe (sickener again) is strong favourite still and im going for a mildish first half of March with the possibility of a cold snap towards Easter but nothing from about 5th March onwards is completely set in stone.

Best GEFS member is number 2 which shows a belter of a battleground setup. feb 1996 anyone ????

http://www.meteociel...&mode=0&carte=0

EDIT : Yes i know frontal alignment was NW to SE in 1996 but all the same i think people would settle for that run.

Edited February 23, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[M1JWR]

As far as i am concerned, nature itself is a good indicator of the forthcoming season

i know a guy with a horse, the key is the thickness of its coat, it wasent wrong last year

This time last year it had a thick coat, and started to loose it last january after the cold

spell

This year its coat is nowhere as thick

what does that tell you all

Check the date of this post people, my money was allways on the horse

[Cheese Rice]

lol at the above.

[sebastiaan1973]

shurely shum mishtake (quote peter h)

No, it ain't a mistake. 'Totaal' = the average temperature at the of the month, 'nu'= the average temperature for the running month. So when you take a look today, the 23th of februar, it shows the average temperature from 1-22 februar. When I posted the orginal message, it was the average from 1-20 februar.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Check the date of this post people, my money was allways on the horse

By jove! I think you've single handedly cracked seasonal forecasting. When I saw your original post I thought you were just horsing about, but having seen this I think you're on to a 'sure win'.

*doh*

[M1JWR]

By jove! I think you've single handedly cracked seasonal forecasting. When I saw your original post I thought you were just horsing about, but having seen this I think you're on to a 'sure win'.

*doh*

Better than mystic meg then, next one, spring is on the way, saw frogs on the moove today/tonight, thats usually a shure thing

[Peter H]

What did I say a couple of weeks ago ? February was going to be an overall mild month, even for those that had the cold start. Who was right ? Why don't people listen ?

I even got a number P.M.s,telling me to "give over" , from several poor misguided souls who were still clinging to the forlorn hope that it would be a really cold one.

Well, my back yard or not, my predictions have turned out to be correct, although even I didn't expect it to be this mild.

I wonder what a max. of 19 degrees in Warwickshire is going to do to the February C.E.T. ?

Still, a real stinker of a winter and, as I have said before, up there with the really bad ones.

Despite 2009/10 and 2010/11, we're still long overdue something on the scale of 62/63, or even 78/79. and 81/82. 2009/10 came close, and had 2010/11 not gone pear shaped after Boxing day 2010, it really would have been excellent..

Still, I live in hope. Here's to the 2012/13 season.

Edited February 23, 2012 by Peter H

[Peter H]

Better than mystic meg then, next one, spring is on the way, saw frogs on the moove today/tonight, thats usually a shure thing

You a radio Ham ? I'm GI4 KBW.

[M1JWR]

You a radio Ham ? I'm GI4 KBW.

Yes mate i am, 73 de m1jwr

[Peter H]

Yes mate i am, 73 de m1jwr

Thought you might be.

It's amazing how many hams you meet on discussion forums !

[Peter H]

Better than mystic meg then, next one, spring is on the way, saw frogs on the moove today/tonight, thats usually a shure thing

I wonder what kind of money Exacta weather pay ?

Edited February 24, 2012 by Peter H

[Weather-history]

we're still long overdue something on the scale of 62/63,

I point out that 1962-63 was not a 1 in 10 year event. it was exceptional, it was 1.4C colder for the CET than 1946-47. You can't seriously expect another winter on that scale in the near future. Figures suggest that for Scotland 2009-2010 was the coldest winter since 1962-63.

[bluearmy]

No, it ain't a mistake. 'Totaal' = the average temperature at the of the month, 'nu'= the average temperature for the running month. So when you take a look today, the 23th of februar, it shows the average temperature from 1-22 februar. When I posted the orginal message, it was the average from 1-20 februar.

sorry sebastian - this was an ironic reply by me to peter H. it would get lost in translation between dutch and english !! its a phrase taken from a satirical magazine over here. i had no doubt of the validity of the figure you posted.

[bluearmy]

What did I say a couple of weeks ago ? February was going to be an overall mild month, even for those that had the cold start. Who was right ? Why don't people listen ? I even got a number P.M.s,telling me to "give over" , from several poor misguided souls who were still clinging to the forlorn hope that it would be a really cold one. Well, my back yard or not, my predictions have turned out to be correct, although even I didn't expect it to be this mild. I wonder what a max. of 19 degrees in Warwickshire is going to do to the February C.E.T. ? Still, a real stinker of a winter and, as I have said before, up there with the really bad ones. Despite 2009/10 and 2010/11, we're still long overdue something on the scale of 62/63, or even 78/79. and 81/82. 2009/10 came close, and had 2010/11 not gone pear shaped after Boxing day 2010, it really would have been excellent.. Still, I live in hope. Here's to the 2012/13 season.

a max of 19c will no doubt be the equivalent of a max of -3c re variance to the norm peter. and we have seen both this month !! so yes, you are wrong as usual. CET stands this morning at -0.75C. impossible for this month to a mild one. you are rapidly turning into the madden/corbyn of NW by making statements that are incorrect and then justifying them with others that are equally incorrect.

[Peter H]

I point out that 1962-63 was not a 1 in 10 year event. it was exceptional, it was 1.4C colder for the CET than 1946-47. You can't seriously expect another winter on that scale in the near future. Figures suggest that for Scotland 2009-2010 was the coldest winter since 1962-63.

Had 2010/11 continued beyond Boxing Day 2010 then it certainly would have come very colse indeed.

I would at least expect something close, maybe on the scale of 78/79. We're long over due that. Don't forget that in the sixties, winters such as we've just had were unheard of (i.e. no snow and hardly any frost). For example, the winter of 68/69 was far better than 2009/10 and 2010/11.

Winters generally have been so mild for so long they're going to have to change the long term average temperatures for the winter months.soon, in my opinion.

a max of 19c will no doubt be the equivalent of a max of -3c re variance to the norm peter. and we have seen both this month !! so yes, you are wrong as usual. CET stands this morning at -0.75C. impossible for this month to a mild one. you are rapidly turning into the madden/corbyn of NW by making statements that are incorrect and then justifying them with others that are equally incorrect.

If that's the case then it in no way reflects the overall mildness of February 2012.

[bluearmy]

To clarify, the CET stands at -0.75C to the Feb average (just in case anyone thought i meant subzero CET which i doubt anyone would but you never know)

[Peter H]

To clarify, the CET stands at -0.75C to the Feb average (just in case anyone thought i meant subzero CET which i doubt anyone would but you never know)

Well, I'd never have guessed from your original post.

The last few days of Feb. are still going to be exceptionally mild, so you never klnow.

In any case, the "Central England" Temperature for February simply does not refect how mild the month has been in some parts of the UK, or overall, even in areas that had the cold start.

As someone once said, "there are lies, lies and damned statistics".

[Alex95]

2009/2010 was quite close to 1978/1979 in terms of weather patterns at times, but the UK missed out on a very snowy pattern in February. In 1979 we got quite lucky; the severe NE'ly in mid Feb which gave 20-30cm in the NE and extremely low temperatures was perfectly aligned to do so, and the severe blizzard in mid March was also perfectly aligned for the North. If these two events had been 'close but no cigar', 78/79 wouldn't have beaten 09/10 by very much in my location. November-December 2010 saw an even more incredible amount of snow here too; in 78/79 the only time the depths were beaten was in the mid-March blizzard, though there was definitely over 30cm in January. Nov/Dec 2010 beat December 1981 here too; we had more snow, and possibly colder temperatures, which shows how incredible 2010 was.

What I'm getting at is we're not overdue another 78/79, the last 2 winters were severe, and only a handful of winters since 1900 have been snowier. I wonder where a winter like 1977/1978 would stand though - February was exceptional in the NE and SW with over 30cm, but less amazing elsewhere.

[johnholmes]

Well, I'd never have guessed from your original post.

The last few days of Feb. are still going to be exceptionally mild, so you never klnow.

In any case, the "Central England" Temperature for February simply does not refect how mild the month has been in some parts of the UK, or overall, even in areas that had the cold start.

As someone once said, "there are lies, lies and damned statistics".

when the Weather magazine comes out with the summary for February it will show the variations countrywide so we can then see how each part of the country fared overall in February.

[Aaron]

2009/2010 was quite close to 1978/1979 in terms of weather patterns at times, but the UK missed out on a very snowy pattern in February. In 1979 we got quite lucky; the severe NE'ly in mid Feb which gave 20-30cm in the NE and extremely low temperatures was perfectly aligned to do so, and the severe blizzard in mid March was also perfectly aligned for the North. If these two events had been 'close but no cigar', 78/79 wouldn't have beaten 09/10 by very much in my location. November-December 2010 saw an even more incredible amount of snow here too; in 78/79 the only time the depths were beaten was in the mid-March blizzard, though there was definitely over 30cm in January. Nov/Dec 2010 beat December 1981 here too; we had more snow, and possibly colder temperatures, which shows how incredible 2010 was.

What I'm getting at is we're not overdue another 78/79, the last 2 winters were severe, and only a handful of winters since 1900 have been snowier. I wonder where a winter like 1977/1978 would stand though - February was exceptional in the NE and SW with over 30cm, but less amazing elsewhere.

The last time I saw over a foot of snow was 1995, the previous winters have failed to deliver in terms of snow

[Alex95]

The last time I saw over a foot of snow was 1995, the previous winters have failed to deliver in terms of snow

How much did Leeds get in 09/10 and 10/11? I though the city did quite well?

I actually think I had 28cm in Jan 2010, so just under a foot.

November 2010 below

Edited February 24, 2012 by Alza 2

[Alex95]

How much did Leeds get in 09/10 and 10/11? I though the city did quite well?

I actually think I had 28cm in Jan 2010, so just under a foot.

November 29th 2010 below - look at the depth on the table!!

Edited February 24, 2012 by Alza 2

[Aaron]

I had about 15cm in January 2010 (got 15cm this month on the 4th) and December 2010 I had 25cm (could be more though)

I guess I cannot complain too much, here's the snow we got on 1 December 2010

Edited February 24, 2012 by Aaron

[Alex95]

I had about 15cm in January 2010 (got 15cm this month on the 4th) and December 2010 I had 25cm.

Ah OK. 25cm (10 inches) is still pretty impressive for the UK!

I felt slightly cheated on the 30th Nov 2010 as an overnight thaw reduced the depth from 40cm to about 30cm, so despite another 8cm falling over the rest of the week the deepest snow never exceeded 40cm again. If there'd been no thaw on the 30th, as well as a slight thaw I had in the evening of the 28th, my depth would have been about 50-55cm, and that would have beaten 1979.

The most amazing thing to me is that I've only had 2 days of falling and settling snow this year, with 3 days of lying snow, and a maximum depth of 2.5cm - this year has been truly pathetic for snow, but what a contrast to last winter! After this winter I think I'd even be happy with just a few inches next year!

Has anyone seen this thread? Over 100cm looks quite tasty

Edited February 24, 2012 by Alza 2