Winter 2011/12 - General Discussion

[feb1991blizzard]

Another nail in the coffin from the ECM 12z, and im expecting another one when the ens come out.

[Eugene]

Not sure how a possible one to 2 days of a rather cold northerly toppler can compare to locally the coldest start to february since 1979 and it wont bring hardly any snow either, its about time people judged cold spells by temperature recordings and CET compared to average instead of how much snow you get.

Edited February 12, 2012 by Eugene

[feb1991blizzard]

Not sure how a possible one to 2 days of a rather cold northerly toppler can compare to locally the coldest start to february since 1979 and it wont bring hardly any snow either, its about time people judged cold spells by temperature recordings and CET compared to average instead of how much snow you get.

I judge them by how much snow i get because snow is the weather type i like, i do judge cold spells by temp but its temps 1.1 to 1.5 km off sea level combined with pressure gradient / wind speed that i judge them by!

[Weather-history]

but if it wasnt for the continental flow, there would have been no snow from the atlantic, just rain, so continental air surely brought the cold air in to allow snow,

Yes but thats my point, thats all it did. It was very poor for snow on its own, It needed the Atlantic to engage the cold for the snow and thats a dicey situation as some locations found out a week last Saturday and even more found out on Thursday. It could have gone completely belly-up, some people struck lucky with two bouts of snow but its not a comfortable scenario. If you completely missed out on the snow but got something of the cold, you are more likely to get my point.

I find a lot of people when they want cold, they really want snow and this was evdident with January 2011 where people even now sstill think that was a mild month when it wasn't and that was because it was largely snowless.

Edited February 12, 2012 by Mr_Data

[Optimus Prime]

Every single day of the year will bring regional variations in weather, there will be winners and losers; that's what happens on a tiny island with a maritime climate.

Thanks for clearing that up with us.

[damianslaw]

Well the very cold temperature the last two nights were restricted for places south of the humber. Below average here this February but no below -10C temperatures despite similar conditions to further south i.e clear skies and snow cover.. there's no real explanation for this.

There's absolutely nothing that makes Cambridge colder then say Wakefield.. both are the same height above sea level but Wakefield is smaller and further north.. neither are in frost hollows.. yet Cambridge still records colder temperatures.. seriously, what's the cause?

The difference between lincolnshire and the east midlands compared to Wakefield was colder uppers and deeper snow cover. Also I understand the sandy soil in the wash area helps to generate much colder ground temps thanks to the ground being very dry compared to elsewhere in the country, so this may well have been another factor for the very cold temperatures. The fact places on the lincolnshire coast got down to -14 degrees much surely be attributed in part to the sandy soil. Coastal districts are not renowned for low temperatures, yet the coastal part of the wash does tend to record much lower temps than any other coastal region of the country during the winter.

[feb1991blizzard]

The difference between lincolnshire and the east midlands compared to Wakefield was colder uppers and deeper snow cover. Also I understand the sandy soil in the wash area helps to generate much colder ground temps thanks to the ground being very dry compared to elsewhere in the country, so this may well have been another factor for the very cold temperatures. The fact places on the lincolnshire coast got down to -14 degrees much surely be attributed in part to the sandy soil. Coastal districts are not renowned for low temperatures, yet the coastal part of the wash does tend to record much lower temps than any other coastal region of the country during the winter.

What happened with the countryfile forecast you talked about damian?, does this mean the front will never make it past northern England and we will get mild gunk for a good while after that, looks like thats what the BBC forecast temps are suggesting, is it another nail in the coffin?

[Peter H]

Yes but thats my point, thats all it did. It was very poor for snow on its own, It needed the Atlantic to engage the cold for the snow and thats a dicey situation as some locations found out a week last Saturday and even more found out on Thursday. It could have gone completely belly-up, some people struck lucky with two bouts of snow but its not a comfortable scenario. If you completely missed out on the snow but got something of the cold, you are more likely to get my point.

I find a lot of people when they want cold, they really want snow and this was evdident with January 2011 where people even now sstill think that was a mild month when it wasn't and that was because it was largely snowless.

Well, we didn't even get the cold !

January 2011 was both a cold month and quite snowy in these parts, but nothing more than what we normally got in the 1960's..January 1969 was actually better for example.

Still, the winter of 1979/80 was mild and that was after the excellent 1978/79 so you never know. Winter 2012/13 might turn out OK.

[Peter H]

What happened with the countryfile forecast you talked about damian?, does this mean the front will never make it past northern England and we will get mild gunk for a good while after that, looks like thats what the BBC forecast temps are suggesting, is it another nail in the coffin?

Notice the BBC weekly Ceefax forecasts are showing a mild week for all of the UK, with only northern Scotland turning slightly colder by the end of the week.

It appears even Europe will lose the extreme cold they've had for the last couple of weeks. Despite the cold in parts of England recently, February could turn out to be mild overall, even in places that have had the cold.

Funny how things can change so quickly.

Edited February 12, 2012 by Peter H

[AutumnMists]

Notice the BBC weekly Ceefax forecasts are showing a mild week for all of the UK, with only northern Scotland turning slightly colder by the end of the week.

It appears even Europe will lose the extreme cold they've had for the last couple of weeks. Despite the cold in parts of England recently, February could turn out to be mild overall, even in places that have had the cold.

Funny how things can change so quickly.

Highly unlikely, since a mild theme for the rest of February seems unlikely.

[feb1991blizzard]

Notice the BBC weekly Ceefax forecasts are showing a mild week for all of the UK, with only northern Scotland turning slightly colder by the end of the week.

It appears even Europe will lose the extreme cold they've had for the last couple of weeks. Despite the cold in parts of England recently, February could turn out to be mild overall, even in places that have had the cold.

Funny how things can change so quickly.

Mind you the 0c isotherm does not reach Northern England until saturday lunchtime on the GFS 18z, and cold isnt progged until saturday at the earliest on any model, it was just the fact that damian said on the MOD thread that they mentioned the front stalling which suggests a lack of potency, as for the a mild Feb overall, the CET will definately be below average now, it would take a near non feasable synoptical set up to send that above average, Westerlies wouldnt do it, it would need a trough stalled to the West / South West of us to just sit there for the last 15 days bringing up a long draw Southerly and that isnt going to happen.

[Peter H]

Highly unlikely, since a mild theme for the rest of February seems unlikely.

We'll see.

Wish I was that optomistic.

[feb1991blizzard]

Unfortunately the weather will do what it wants and it just so happens that this year we had Ian Brown up there in the sky when we needed Steve Murr!

[TEITS]

This winter has been overall very mild, and not just in the northwest of the UK.

9 days of decent winter weather in the Sotheast DOES NOT make it a brilliant winter by any stretch of the imagination.

Have you forgotten just how mild it's been over all the UK in both December 2011 and January 2012 ?

Quiet right.

I actually count myself extremely lucky because the snowfall and low temps I recieved was quiet incredible considering the synoptics and the upper temps. However this has been a very, very poor winter not just weather wise but synoptically aswell. The AO has been mainly positive but the real blow has been the ever present HP over the Azores and the NAO remaining either positive or neutral.

[95 Degrees]

Got an interesting scenario playing out currently in terms of contrast over Europe where cold air has lost the battle over the U.K and Northern France but hangs on further south in Spain/Southern France/Italy, Barcelona/Sevilla is 5C colder than Inverness at the moment!

[Cheese Rice]

Well the very cold temperature the last two nights were restricted for places south of the humber. Below average here this February but no below -10C temperatures despite similar conditions to further south i.e clear skies and snow cover.. there's no real explanation for this.

I think you need to lower your expectation, we struggle to reach -5 in the coldest winters never mind -10!

[feb1991blizzard]

Quiet right.

I actually count myself extremely lucky because the snowfall and low temps I recieved was quiet incredible considering the synoptics and the upper temps. However this has been a very, very poor winter not just weather wise but synoptically aswell. The AO has been mainly positive but the real blow has been the ever present HP over the Azores and the NAO remaining either positive or neutral.

Totally agree, just because Feb may end up with a big negative 2m temp anomaly it does not mean that overall the winter was any good, i saw more snow overall than i did in any winter in the noughties (although i have lived in various places) but it will go down as a desparately disappointing winter, the caveat to that being that it would still end up being memorable in the event of some stunning late synoptics delivering a widespread dumping, very unlikely though now.

[Aaron]

-5c is not uncommon here at all. I reached -5C and below last year, 2010, 2009, 2008 etc etc. In fact in 2008 the temperatures here fell below -7C as they have done this year too, and 2010

All I'm saying is if areas further south with snow cover can achieve -10C and below then surely I can too, since I also have snow cover. It just appears places in the UK get very cold while other places with the exact same geographic makeup do not.. it just makes no sense!

Edited February 12, 2012 by Aaron

[feb1991blizzard]

I think you need to lower your expectation, we struggle to reach -5 in the coldest winters never mind -10!

Really!!!! i dont doubt you for one moment but if you had asked me the question i would have said that in your location -5 would be guaranteed every year, it just shows that there some really vast regional differences in temperature in this country.

[Cheese Rice]

Really!!!! I don't doubt you for one moment, but if you had asked me the question I would have said that in your location -5 would be guaranteed every year, it just shows that there some really vast regional differences in temperature in this country.

No we do, but once or twice if we are lucky.

Edited February 13, 2012 by Cheese Rice

[feb1991blizzard]

No we do, but once or twice if we are lucky.

Just as a matter of interest what temps were you getting in December 2010?, judging by what you are saying, higher than what i was getting, i was regularly down to -15 and a good few days of max's well below freezing yet whenever we get a marginal North Westerly flow like december just gone, you always seem to do better with snowfall, that sunday night the first week in december we were getting rain and you were getting pasted.

[AutumnMists]

We'll see.

Wish I was that optomistic.

I'm just saying; the chances of a mild theme throughout the rest of the Month are unlikely. Average seems a good bet.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think I can sort of see where Mr_Data was coming from. The burst of continental air brought no snow except for a few eastern coastal areas (chiefly around the Hull district of east Yorkshire) and there was very little evidence of a southerly tracking jet, so we were reliant on Atlantic systems pushing in but failing to make significant inroads against the block. This is always a very marginal setup because if the fronts are too far west it stays bone dry, and if they are too far east we get rain.

On this occasion the fronts have set up in just the right places to give a couple of heavy snowfalls for many parts of England, which then survived for a long while due to the unusually low temperatures that those regions have seen recently. In Tyne and Wear, though, all we had was an ice-storm on the Saturday (4th) and then a belt of rain despite a temperature below 1C- the main issue was marginality several metres above sea level rather than at the surface. As such it has been colder than average up here but snowfall has been restricted to just a few flakes on the 4th prior to the deluge of ice pellets.

It's a common issue with Russian and, to a lesser extent, Scandinavian blocks though- continental air is fundamentally very dry and the atmospheric pressure is high, so unless we get an easterly with some "oomph" to it and a reasonably cold airmass precipitation is always likely to be limited. I say "lesser extent" regarding Scandinavian blocking because it is more likely to direct colder air further west and throw up ridges to our north encouraging Atlantic lows to undercut the block. But I think that for a cold spell with widespread repeated snowfalls the optimal setup has a high centred over Greenland that periodically ridges over to Scandinavia, and the jet deflected well south, giving some shots at frontal snowfall for the south and otherwise a mix of sun and snow showers with troughs/polar lows/remnants of old fronts periodically giving more organised snowfall to most of the country.

[Peter H]

I'm just saying; the chances of a mild theme throughout the rest of the Month are unlikely. Average seems a good bet.

Well, mild throughout this week.

A slightly colder few days from Saturday through to Monday, and then mild from next Tuesday, at least according to weather online. That takes us into the last full week of February.

The BBC aren't predicting anything exceptional either on their monthly forecast this morning.

Looking at the Weather |Infirmation Site's long range models it looks like a predominantly southwest or westerly theme for the rest of the montth, so I'd say either an average or above average CET overall

Don't forget, everyone was predicting an exceptional cold month (4 weeks of arctic weather etc.) for the whole of February, not just the first week or so, and for all of the UK.

As someone said a while back, February promised much but really delievered very little indeed.

.http://www.ukweather.freeserve.co.uk/nwp.htm

I'm afraid that's it for this winter.

[Peter H]

Just as a matter of interest what temps were you getting in December 2010?,

We had mild weather for about the first 10 days of the month, then 2 weeks of average temperatures i.e. naxima plus 5/6 and night time minima of 0 or slightly below. No day had a persistant frost. We had a 15 minute skiff of snow and that was about it.

From the 24th onwards it was exceptionally mild here with daily maxima 12 or above.

Christmas day was the mildest in Northern Ireland since records began.

We've had no full night of frost since 23rd December.

What a winter.

One of the worst ever in these parts.