Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2011/2012

[chionomaniac]

Yes, we would be left with lower heights over Greenland and Iceland – typically synoptically this would see ridging close to or to the West of the UK, with the Russian High serving only to drive cold air SSW into Southern Europe.

Or the PV could shift further East leaving us open to the mother of all Northerlies.

Perspective please Ian.

[chionomaniac]

The stratosphere has become the fashionable factor over the last few winters, and whilst I don’t doubt it’s significance, I think some members are pinning their hopes on changes that will suddenly flip the prevailing pressure patterns that we currently have. And whatever warming there is may not have that implication.

What is happening fits in nicely with my January outlook – I don’t believe we will see the PV properly displaced from it’s current locale.

Perhaps there is more credence and increasing information on interactions between the troposphere and stratosphere.

And, Ian, you can't have it both ways - didn't you base a whole theory on the fact that cold stratosphere led to a whole new era?

I think you should leave your baiting there.

c

[Snowmad79]

There's a new spray out this winter and its free of ozone depleting properties and stratospherically friendly......

Edited December 21, 2011 by Snow Time 79

[snow drift]

The stratosphere has become the fashionable factor over the last few winters, and whilst I don’t doubt it’s significance, I think some members are pinning their hopes on changes that will suddenly flip the prevailing pressure patterns that we currently have. And whatever warming there is may not have that implication.

What is happening fits in nicely with my January outlook – I don’t believe we will see the PV properly displaced from it’s current locale.

I rarely have the confidence to make forecasts but this one I am in no doubt what so ever. I forecast that you will continue to use these posts to wind up as many people as possible. That is my Jan outlook and every month after.

Tiresome to the point of boredom.

[Weather-history]

And, Ian, you can't have it both ways - didn't you base a whole theory on the fact that cold stratosphere led to a whole new era?

c

Keep up the analysis, chiono. We can only learn from it and how much effect it has. There is more scientific credence in this than in Ian Brown's tripe of significant pattern changes since 1987: not true as I can prove. No northerly blocking in winter: not true as we have seen over the last two winters and indeed in other winters such as 1990-91, 1995-96, 1996-97.

Edited December 21, 2011 by Mr_Data

[johnholmes]

The stratosphere has become the fashionable factor over the last few winters, and whilst I don’t doubt it’s significance, I think some members are pinning their hopes on changes that will suddenly flip the prevailing pressure patterns that we currently have. And whatever warming there is may not have that implication.

What is happening fits in nicely with my January outlook – I don’t believe we will see the PV properly displaced from it’s current locale.

You have a point in your first sentence IF its made in relation to those with little knowledge who do seem to be using it to look for any hope of cold and snow. However, if its being made at the likes of chio and GP etc then its in very bad taste Ian. They have for at least 2 if not 3 years been posting about, what to me,was a barely known possible effect. As a professional forecaster I have learnt a lot from the 2 of them and others. Just how much credence one can put on making links into how it directly affects our weather is still uncertain to me.

Their linking to various sites for reading in greater detail allows anyone interested in learning rather than pontificating their own viewpoint to actually learn. Your much hyped idea of 'modern winters' is no more valid than a load of other hyped pseudo forecasts I have to say. I don't mean to cause offence Ian but that is how you are coming across this year.

I have an idea Ian?

Why not join with me in researching any significant warming in the Stratosphere for as many winters back as we can find data. The other one to use the years this data shows up to see IF there appears to be any link to either warming events and how long down the line, what did the AO and NAO show along with perhaps the MJO. Also to show those occasions when no warming/SSW occurred but cold months followed. Only by doing full research can any of us start to make criticisms of others work.

Edited December 21, 2011 by johnholmes

[Partholon]

I rarely have the confidence to make forecasts but this one I am in no doubt what so ever. I forecast that you will continue to use these posts to wind up as many people as possible. That is my Jan outlook and every month after.

Tiresome to the point of boredom.

replying to his posts is exactly what he wants. what he's doing is childish, but if everyone ignored his posts, he'd stop the baiting and find a new hobby.

[Paul]

This thread has been great up to now so let's not allow it to run off the rails please.

[johnholmes]

This thread has been great up to now so let's not allow it to run off the rails please.

True Paul and I have made a genuine offer-I have already started collating data that I think chio gave links to.

[Gavin P]

When winter has started like this in the mdern years, it has usually rolled on like this, broadly speaking, so some big questions will be answered in Jan and Feb.

What I do know is that the deep fried sprouts defied many composites that ‘should’ have led to different outcomes. GP is well aware of this.

A couple of weeks of winter zonality and the "even larger teapot" theory comes out of mothballs. I wondered how long it would take you?

Edited December 21, 2011 by Gavin P

[Michael Winston]

True Paul and I have made a genuine offer-I have already started collating data that I think chio gave links to.

I, for one, anticipate the publication of this with genuine interest - I only understand the most basic principles and have learned a great deal thanks to the hard work of youself and others here. Many thanks.

Merry Christmas,

Mike.

[Weather-history]

Why not join with me in researching any significant warming in the Stratosphere for as many winters back as we can find data.

Well I can give you some info on the earliest stratospheric warming event that I have come across. The one from Feb 1951

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/71988-a-very-early-stratospheric-warming-event-report/

[johnholmes]

Well I can give you some info on the earliest stratospheric warming event that I have come across. The one from Feb 1951

http://forum.netweat...g-event-report/

yep saw that Mr D and filed it-thanks

I will check again how many years data in the link I have and let folk know. gawd knows how long it will take to collate any data or indeed how to quantify any warming. The cold months following or within it are easy enough in one sense. Simply taking the CET for those months and deleting any that are not currently, at least 2C below the average shown on the CET link-I think its 1961-90 but it may be the next decade. That degree of cold may need modifying as we go along.

Thanks for any offer Ian. I'll be in touch after Christmas.

chio I will also pm you after Xmas and ask if you think the line I'm suggesting is about the right order or if I am barking up the wrong tree?

Edited December 21, 2011 by johnholmes

[NorthernRab]

Without doubt Strat cooling was a factor in the sort of zonality seen during many of the mdern winter years...When winter has started like this in the mdern years, it has usually rolled on like this, broadly speaking, so some big questions will be answered in Jan and Feb.

So now you think there's a correlation between the Stratosphere and your even larger teapot theory?

Edited December 21, 2011 by NorthernRab

[johnholmes]

Nr

No one knows for sure just how much if any direct link there is between the Stratosphere and events down below which is why I have suggested that some proper research is made into the many factors that MAY affect our weather.

[syed2878]

I would like to thank chio for his work over the last few months i have learned a hel of alot on the stratosphere and its effects. Thanks guys and have a good christmas.

[cooling climate]

Nr

No one knows for sure just how much if any direct link there is between the Stratosphere and events down below which is why I have suggested that some proper research is made into the many factors that MAY affect our weather.

I would say it is without doubt, no question about it. There is a ton of evidence out there

plus what we have seen for ourselfs recentley IE February 2009, winter 2009/10 and December 2010.

[chionomaniac]

yep saw that Mr D and filed it-thanks

I will check again how many years data in the link I have and let folk know. gawd knows how long it will take to collate any data or indeed how to quantify any warming. The cold months following or within it are easy enough in one sense. Simply taking the CET for those months and deleting any that are not currently, at least 2C below the average shown on the CET link-I think its 1961-90 but it may be the next decade. That degree of cold may need modifying as we go along.

Thanks for any offer Ian. I'll be in touch after Christmas.

chio I will also pm you after Xmas and ask if you think the line I'm suggesting is about the right order or if I am barking up the wrong tree?

Cheers John, I look forward to see the results of your research.

[Gael_Force]

What we see forecast is the polar vortex displacing from its more central position over the North Pole. If the vortex is displaced sufficiently then we can see a complete collapse of the polar vortex and a SSW ensues. However we could be left with the situation where the warming is not strong enough to cause a collapse, even though a displacement occurs, but the displaced vortex, even though slightly weaker, returns to its former position.

If a SSW occurs then with the main driver of the tropospheric vortex removed blocking can occur some 2-6 weeks after the SSW and effect the troposphere for 2-6 weeks. On top of this, the stratospheric vortex position seen at the time of the SSW can be directly linked to the tropospheric vortex position at that time. So if we have a complete displacement towards Siberia then that is likely to be born out tropspherically with blocking likely over the Canadian sector.

This sounds similar to the Arctic Dipole Anomaly which has been evident in both summer and winter over the last few years. Does a SSW filter down to create the ADA or is it a separate event created by cross polar circulation at the surface rather than impacts high above the arctic?

[johnholmes]

This sounds similar to the Arctic Dipole Anomaly which has been evident in both summer and winter over the last few years. Does a SSW filter down to create the ADA or is it a separate event created by cross polar circulation at the surface rather than impacts high above the arctic?

the more we read the more complex everything becomes-so true about meteorology in all its aspects.

Cheers John, I look forward to see the results of your research.

don't hold your breath-many months work I imagine, not continuous but grabbing a few minutes here and there!

[weatherjunkie]

wave 1 and wave 2 picking up in intensity...might get some extra help for the stratosphere

Edited December 21, 2011 by weatherjunkie

[BornFromTheVoid]

This sounds similar to the Arctic Dipole Anomaly which has been evident in both summer and winter over the last few years. Does a SSW filter down to create the ADA or is it a separate event created by cross polar circulation at the surface rather than impacts high above the arctic?

The ADA has been on the increase through the summer and Autumn also, so I doubt it's influenced by SSWs, more likely due to some other forcing or feedback from the pattern of ice loss itself.

[Mark Neal.]

Thanks to Chiono and the rest who give a lot of effort into explaining what's going on in the Stratosphere, Keep up the good work, always a good & interesting read.

[chionomaniac]

Thanks to Chiono and the rest who give a lot of effort into explaining what's going on in the Stratosphere, Keep up the good work, always a good & interesting read.

Cheers.

The ECM at T+240 has the vortex at 1 hPa is on its knees today and about to take its final blow.

[MattH]

Ahh you beat me to it C hehe...

Excellent run from the 12Z EC from yesterday especially at 240hrs and even down to 10hPa as well, if not a tad lower...

http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ec.php?alert=1&level=all&forecast=f240&lng=

The other noticeable feature is this trend is now evident in earlier time frames and not just the 240hr period. Also for anyone wanting to see the comparison between present day and the projected changes just compare the initial analysis charts to that of the 240hr time period. The differences are huge and helps to better understand what we need to be looking for...

http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ec.php?alert=1&level=all&forecast=a12&lng=eng

It'll be interesting to view the EC 32 day tmoz but I have a feeling no dig changes will be evident within the model as yet.

Cheers, Matt