Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2011/2012

[dallas]

Do models always handle strat warmings with difficulty? Or does any large pattern change have the same effect?

[chionomaniac]

Following displacement stratospheric disturbances the weakened polar vortex will end up positioned off the centre of the pole. If we could choose one place for it not to end up............

But do not despair. These forecasts are showing a large degree of variance.

[nick sussex]

Following displacement stratospheric disturbances the weakened polar vortex will end up positioned off the centre of the pole. If we could choose one place for it not to end up............

But do not despair. These forecasts are showing a large degree of variance.

Oh dear after the operational output I was hoping for some better news in here!

I think that would sum up the winter, the one place you don't want it to displace to it goes! of course the variance gives some hope but overall my optimism is beginning to wane.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Oh dear after the operational output I was hoping for some better news in here!

I think that would sum up the winter, the one place you don't want it to displace to it goes! of course the variance gives some hope but overall my optimism is beginning to wane.

Completely agree, nothing seems to be going our way at the moment.

Even when we eventually smash the PV to bits, one of the little pieces still ends up anchored around Greenland!

Edited January 19, 2012 by Radiating Dendrite

[geoffw]

what about GP confidence??????? the models should change?

[Coast]

Thoughts from Joe Bastardi regarding strat warming for February in the States and beyond:

http://www.weatherbell.com/newsletter-1-10-2012-e

[Radiating Dendrite]

what about GP confidence??????? the models should change?

But he is only going off model forecasts.

He does not control the model output you know!

[geoffw]

But he is only going off model forecasts.

He does not control the model output you know!

and you are confident of no change, 1 set of models, idiotic!!!

[Radiating Dendrite]

and you are confident of no change, 1 set of models, idiotic!!!

But it is not one set.

All the models are currently singing from the same hymn sheet.

Can you show me a time when anything cold has reached the reliable in the last 6 weeks?

I has always been 10 days away, change is coming, be patient, blah blah blah..........my patience has now run out!

Hopefully the PV will shift somewhere different to what is currently being shown in the models and the stratosphere warming will lead to some favourable blocking. But it seems to me that we have had Northern Hemisphere blocking for the last couple of weeks, but it has been in the wrong place.

I hope to be proven wrong!

[syed2878]

i really cant c how we gona get a cold feb the strat isn't playing ball and the models arnt showing cold ither. I really hope gp's forecast comes off.

[chionomaniac]

i really cant c how we gona get a cold feb the strat isn't playing ball and the models arnt showing cold ither. I really hope gp's forecast comes off.

The strat is playing ball overall Syed. It is just that the vortex is forecast to be situated over our end for a bit, but we are in a far better situation now than at the start of Dec.

[chionomaniac]

This is a more uplifting chart - again big differences since yesterday.

[karyo]

This is a more uplifting chart - again big differences since yesterday.

Can you please elaborate? One liners are not helpful.

Although we are in a better place now stratospherically that say in December, we are also nearing the final month of winter so time is running out!

Karyo

Edited January 19, 2012 by karyo

[Suburban Streamer]

Can you please elaborate? One liners are not helpful.

Although we are in a better place now stratospherically that say in December, we are also nearing the final month of winter so time is running out!

Karyo

if u compare it to the chart he posted yesterday, its shows a more favourable positioning of the pv and also highlights the uncertainty

[chionomaniac]

Can you please elaborate? One liners are not helpful.

Although we are in a better place now stratospherically that say in December, we are also nearing the final month of winter so time is running out!

Karyo

Hi Karyo, sometimes it is not possible to write full analysis - I do work as well!

I will explain that chart in a way that may help you better understand in the future. All the information is there on the chart. Firstly it is a chart from todays 00Z GFS run signalling the geopotential heights at 100 hPa at T+240. This is the lowest part of the stratosphere - just above the jet stream and is the 10 day forecast at a timeframe that I would normally consider stratospheric FI. ( even more so during an event).

The charts suggests a lower split in the polar vortex with the resultant vorticiies so positioned in areas that would be conducive to a block situated over Alaska and more importantly over Scandinavia. It is FI and whereas the stratospheric forecasts are not subject to the wild fluctuations seen tropospherically they do tend to evolve slowly.

One to keep an eye on as it is a trend we would want to see and different to the ECM chart earlier.

[karyo]

Thanks Chiono and Suburban.

Karyo

[Rollo]

Thanks for the explanation Chio,I for one appreciate all the work that you have put in during this frustrating winter(so far) and would like to see you get the rewards (with proper cold) that you deserve. I think readers of your posts should recognise that even a full blown SSW does not guarantee what cold lovers want but certainly increases the chances.

[lorenzo]

From the link Tempestwatch added in the Model chat thread

Research, developed in part by the Met Office, suggests that changes such as this high up in our atmosphere can – in time – go on to affect weather patterns at surface-level. However, this is a new and very complex area of meteorology where we are still developing our understanding of all the mechanisms involved.

It is possible this is why we are seeing the volatility in the current forecast, as different model runs handle the interactions differently.

Very understated ! Wonder if they ever drop into this thread...

Edited January 19, 2012 by lorenzo

[La Bise]

Thanks Chiono, Lorenzo, GP, etc.

It would be great if this thread does not also turn into a whinge fest because the models are not showing pretty charts baring in mind all the background work being done to stay ahead of the silliness being churned out 4 times a day...

[Weather-history]

what about GP confidence??????? the models should change?

GP could be extremely confident but that does not necessarily make him correct! GP's thoughts should be taken on aboard and respected but they should never be taken as a given, has no lessons be learnt from summer 2011?

Edited January 19, 2012 by Mr_Data

[Isolated Frost]

GP does not take in NWP. He uses technical uses such as wind oscillations (MJO, ENSO), looks at pressure oscillations (NAO, AO) and most importantly angular momentum and it's oscillation (the GWO). He adds them up plus much more, looks at composites, finds data and not only describes how this will affect the UK, but analyses it and thus forecasts it so well.

He looks at the stratosphere and mid-troposphere i'd also imagine, taking into account of zonal and meridional flow, geopotential waves, wave breaking and of course the temperatures and fluxes. He looks at the weather and atmosphere in a whole new way compared to those who single out possibilities from NWP. This is why he is held in high regard.

[knocker]

Low Temperatures Enhance Ozone Degradation above the Arctic

Extraordinarily cold temperatures in the winter of 2010/2011 caused the most massive destruction of the ozone layer above the Arctic so far: The mechanisms leading to the first ozone hole above the North Pole were studied by scientists of the KIT Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK). According to these studies, further cooling of the ozone layer may enhance the influence of ozone-destroying substances, e.g. chlorofluorocarbons (CFC), such that repeated occurrence of an ozone hole above the Arctic has to be expected.

http://www.kit.edu/visit/pi_2012_8751.php

[syed2878]

thanks chio and all of u guys for the explanation.

[Weather-history]

I notice on ECM zonal wind charts, the westerly winds drop off at all levels from 60 to 90N right through the stratosphere. Not sure what the pundits make of it.

[cyclonic happiness]

Low Temperatures Enhance Ozone Degradation above the Arctic

Extraordinarily cold temperatures in the winter of 2010/2011 caused the most massive destruction of the ozone layer above the Arctic so far: The mechanisms leading to the first ozone hole above the North Pole were studied by scientists of the KIT Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK). According to these studies, further cooling of the ozone layer may enhance the influence of ozone-destroying substances, e.g. chlorofluorocarbons (CFC), such that repeated occurrence of an ozone hole above the Arctic has to be expected.

http://www.kit.edu/v...i_2012_8751.php

If this is true then does that mean the constantly strong, over the past couple of decades or so, polar vortex is disrupting the jet stream and weather in the northern hemisphere.

And do they take this in to consideration in regards to AGW? Maybe it's the ozone layer and not CO2?