Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2011/2012

[phil nw.]

Thanks guys for the responses re.Ozone.

Yeah i thought that increased ozone helped to warm the Strato but i wondered how the higher levels now would help next Winter?-as Chiono alluded to in a recent post.

Do Ozone levels retain at this higher level to next Winter?

I admit Ozone behaviour is a big unknown to me but as it affects the Strato.temps. it would usefull to learn more.

[knocker]

Do Ozone levels retain at this higher level to next Winter?

I admit Ozone behaviour is a big unknown to me but as it affects the Strato.temps. it would usefull to learn more.

Very unlikely. Last year the ozone loss reached around 40% at the end of March. The phenomenon was caused by an extremely cold and persistent stratospheric winter, resulting in significant ozone destruction, which, unusually, continued into spring. This was an unprecedented depletion. I did put in a link to a short paper on this earlier in the thread.

http://www.kit.edu/visit/pi_2012_8751.php

[chionomaniac]

Very unlikely. Last year the ozone loss reached around 40% at the end of March. The phenomenon was caused by an extremely cold and persistent stratospheric winter, resulting in significant ozone destruction, which, unusually, continued into spring. This was an unprecedented depletion. I did put in a link to a short paper on this earlier in the thread.

http://www.kit.edu/v...i_2012_8751.php

Actually ws the ozone depletion continued in the NH right through until recently!

If we have the opposite by the end of this winter then we should not be at such critically low levels by the start of the next stratospheric winter.

[SnowObsessor90]

Actually ws the ozone depletion continued in the NH right through until recently!

If we have the opposite by the end of this winter then we should not be at such critically low levels by the start of the next stratospheric winter.

Now I might be barking up the wrong tree or even clutching at straws here but just out of interest were the synoptic's during December 09 which preceded the two very cold spells at the beginning and end of 2010 in anyway similar to this projected SSW?

Cheers

[chionomaniac]

Now I might be barking up the wrong tree or even clutching at straws here but just out of interest were the synoptic's during December 09 which preceded the two very cold spells at the beginning and end of 2010 in anyway similar to this projected SSW?

Cheers

No

We had local wave breaking events as opposed to remote seen now.

[SnowObsessor90]

No

We had local wave breaking events as opposed to remote seen now.

What about in terms of ozone levels or is that more or less the same thing?

[chionomaniac]

What about in terms of ozone levels or is that more or less the same thing?

One can check the historical ozone levels here;

http://www.cpc.ncep....2to/archive/nh/

I am sure that they were higher then ( look 1 month prior) but please let me know.

Edited January 24, 2012 by chionomaniac

[snowmadchrisuk]

Can Solar storms have an effect ?? http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2091433/Solar-storm-Delta-reroutes-flights-radiation-flare-disrupts-cellphone-calls-GPS-units.html?ito=feeds-newsxml

[picog]

After dropping quickly back to average, looks like the temperature at the 30 hPa level might be back on the way up.

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/html_e/pole30_n.html

[chionomaniac]

Latest Update.

We still have encouraging signs filtering down from the stratosphere both for the short term and longer term outlooks.

Let's start long term. It looks like the upper strat forecasts are indicating another round of warming in around 10 days time. This is supported by both the GFS and ECM. Remember that the stratosphere hash't regained it's former strength yet so theoretically we shouldn't need as strong a warming to tip the scales this time.

This seems to be initiated by an increase in wave number two activity - the vortex splitting wave , perhaps being set off by an expected strong mountain torque. This will be useful further down the line - if the cold spell kicks off, a split could aid in prolonging this type of scenario. We see a split being forecast by the GFS at T+240 and 30 hPa.

Pressed the wrong button - more to follow!!

Edited January 25, 2012 by chionomaniac

[chionomaniac]

So, carrying on we need to look at the shorter term.

The possibility of a Scandi block is well supported by the lower stratospheric charts. The only uncertainty remains in how much energy can get under the block to keep it sustained for the long term.

At T+168 the 100 hPa chart is very favourable for there being enough energy.

The T+240 has changed a lot since yesterdays run so we will need to wait until tomorrow for that.

The GFS 10 Day chart suggests a healthy Svalbard block and is trending towards a major split confirmed by the earlier 30 hPa chart.

Even if the easterly doesn't hit big time I suspect a below average February will be on the cards - maybe even significantly so!

[cooling climate]

Can Solar storms have an effect ?? http://www.dailymail...o=feeds-newsxml

It is worth monitoring the GFS and ECM stratospheric sites to see if this will have any

immediate impact or whether there will be a lagged impact if at all. Although I think it

will have some effect whether that be sooner or later.

[Don]

It is worth monitoring the GFS and ECM stratospheric sites to see if this will have any

immediate impact or whether there will be a lagged impact if at all. Although I think it

will have some effect whether that be sooner or later.

Do you see the recent solar storm possibly having a negative effect on the stratosphere in terms of making it less favourable?

[damianslaw]

Its been very enjoyable reading this thread over the past couple of months, however, what are the ENSO predictions for the coming months , are we still in a la nina base state - or about to go into more neutral territory and how would the ENSO state interact with the stratosphere? would this interaction be favourable to sustained northern blocking as we head through the spring months?

[lorenzo]

Can Solar storms have an effect ?? http://www.dailymail...o=feeds-newsxml

Have a good trawl through the thread, not got item saved, but somwhere in there is a correlation study if I recall correctly of Solar forcing and impact on Stratospheric profiles based on either Greenland / Svalbard historical temperature. At present the links i would say are hard to define, the wave breaking mechanics themselves are difficult to quantify !

[sebastiaan1973]

Thanks Chio for this update. Last nights EC144 100hpa chart shows almost the same development at 100hpa.

[Catacol]

Sorry to sound confused... but if the Strat forecasts are looking good for HLB then why is it the models are defaulting to sinking high and zonal winds over the top. Do the strat forecasts not feed into the models, and if so what could be causing them to ignore the background data? I know the 12z are only 5 - 7 hours away, and maybe they will swing back, but the overall trend to blocking in this part of the globe is not as swift as I had expected it to be (even taking into account the fact the years of model watching has taught me that high pressure cells always seem to react more slowly than the models think they will...) and the last 2 runs of GFS and ECM have fallen in line with the sinker.

The MetO themselves have been very twitchy about getting on board the easterly idea... they must obviously read the strat forecasts - so what extra input is there that is causing them to see a 1 in 3 chance of a sinker and a return to zonal?

[chionomaniac]

Sorry to sound confused... but if the Strat forecasts are looking good for HLB then why is it the models are defaulting to sinking high and zonal winds over the top. Do the strat forecasts not feed into the models, and if so what could be causing them to ignore the background data? I know the 12z are only 5 - 7 hours away, and maybe they will swing back, but the overall trend to blocking in this part of the globe is not as swift as I had expected it to be (even taking into account the fact the years of model watching has taught me that high pressure cells always seem to react more slowly than the models think they will...) and the last 2 runs of GFS and ECM have fallen in line with the sinker.

The MetO themselves have been very twitchy about getting on board the easterly idea... they must obviously read the strat forecasts - so what extra input is there that is causing them to see a 1 in 3 chance of a sinker and a return to zonal?

One of the ways that a change in stratospheric conditions can be felt tropospherically is with a really disturbed irregular vortex that doesn't lead to classical northern blocking without the correct pre-existing tropospheric wave pattern. If one looks at (just for example) the NH ECM chart at T+240 we can see the classical example of this occurring.

There is no regular centrally placed vortex - more a mix mash of vortex segments. With the correct wave pattern ie following a strong Mountain torque and I believe this is coming then northern blocking can establish.

The lower stratospheric models do still support a Scandinavian height rise but whether long term and bitter easterlies can be maintained is by no meas certain with this pattern. we are right in the mixing zone. Allied to this is the MJO pattern which if it does reach phase 7 then there ia a possibility for the viortex riding over and this should not be ignored.. Longer term though further disturbances of the PV would be expected.

Edited January 26, 2012 by chionomaniac

[Rollo]

I imagine what you are saying Chino is that this type of situation only adds to the current confusion and we could as the MetO says go either way.

[chionomaniac]

I imagine what you are saying Chino is that this type of situation only adds to the current confusion and we could as the MetO says go either way.

Yes and I have just noticed that I posted the wrong chart!!!

[karyo]

Quite a noticeable rise in mean zonal winds and drop in stratospheric temperatures is expected in a few days time! I hope it's only a temporary affair before another warming takes place.

http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ts.php

Karyo

[Partholon]

Quite a noticeable rise in mean zonal winds and drop in stratospheric temperatures is expected in a few days time! I hope it's only a temporary affair before another warming takes place.

http://wekuw.met.fu-...ww/wdiag/ts.php

Karyo

Well even if that's the case, surely it will take a while before it begins to take effect? Would this have anything to do with the impact from the solar storm?

Edited January 27, 2012 by Partholon

[karyo]

Well even in that's the case, surely it will take a while before it begins to take effect? Would this have anything to do with the impact from the solar storm?

I am not sure whether the solar storm played a role in this. Yes, if the cooling materialises it will need some time to affect the troposphere.

I think Chiono is expecting another round of warming soon so fingers crossed.

Karyo

[lorenzo]

All change after the SSW.

Well played C, hats off Sir...

[greybing]

all quiet on the western front