Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2011/2012

[chionomaniac]

the question to ask is what was the position in preceding years at this time, even then it may have no relevance to what may happen this year?

Anyone got the previous years data, I was given a link but as usual I have lost it!

John, I wouldn't bother looking at the cooling phase for another 4 weeks. The descrepancy that Steve has highlighted is minimal compared to what we look for once the winter cooling has occurred. The stratosphere is rapidly cooling presently and little is to be gained by over analysing at this point.

[johnholmes]

I agree totally with your post chio, I think too many folk read too much into things much too early to be able to begin to predict possible events.

Hopefully your post will make this clear to newcomers as your work in this field is well respected as being good guidance.

What I was doing was fishing! In my usual incompetent way I had lost the link which you gave me-now found it simply by scrolling back-something one or two others might do!

[Suburban Streamer]

Anyone got the previous years data, I was given a link but as usual I have lost it!

defo one to bookmark! http://acdb-ext.gsfc...t/ann_data.html

edit: just seen your post above

Edited September 21, 2012 by Suburban Streamer

[chionomaniac]

defo one to bookmark! http://acdb-ext.gsfc...t/ann_data.html

edit: just seen your post above

or this

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/temperature/

I agree totally with your post chio, I think too many folk read too much into things much too early to be able to begin to predict possible events.

Hopefully your post will make this clear to newcomers as your work in this field is well respected as being good guidance.

What I was doing was fishing! In my usual incompetent way I had lost the link which you gave me-now found it simply by scrolling back-something one or two others might do!

Thanks, but I am no other than an enthusiastic amateur!!

[SMU]

I will spend 30 mins tonight on the NOAA site going back to 2001 & will try estimate the date when we have a high correlation between December temp early anomaly V the norm-

My guess would be somewhere between Oct 20th V Nov 10th-

but at this stage thats a guess-

S

[Suburban Streamer]

Thanks, but I am no other than an enthusiastic amateur!!

if u are an amateur then u are an extremely knowledgable one!

[chionomaniac]

I will spend 30 mins tonight on the NOAA site going back to 2001 & will try estimate the date when we have a high correlation between December temp early anomaly V the norm-

My guess would be somewhere between Oct 20th V Nov 10th-

but at this stage thats a guess-

S

If you get another 30mins it would be good to see how the ozone levels are linked. They should be quite close to the stratospheric warmer starts.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/sbuv2to/archive/nh/

Thanks SS, now that I do not argue with!!!!

[Cheshire Freeze]

What I can't get my head around is that there are seemingly no indicators or forecasting tools that may serve just the slightest of indications at this juncture. Surely there must be signs already evident as to how the strat may play during winter?

[sebastiaan1973]

I think we are somewhat behind with the ozon levels.

http://exp-studies.tor.ec.gc.ca/e/ozone/normalozone.htm#nh

http://exp-studies.tor.ec.gc.ca/cgi-bin/selectMap

[Catacol]

What I can't get my head around is that there are seemingly no indicators or forecasting tools that may serve just the slightest of indications at this juncture. Surely there must be signs already evident as to how the strat may play during winter?

I suggested the same thing on the first winter thread, but it got ignored. Seems to me that the forecasting tool which is the stratosphere is still in its infancy, because it surely cannot be that nothing matters until we get to November, at least if we are talking long term trends. Accepted that we cannot possibly get highly detailed information this far out - but as trendcasts go it doesnt seem to be a tool that is used in autumn.

Edited September 22, 2012 by Catacol_Highlander

[chionomaniac]

It hasn't been ignored CH.

Factors relating to the stratosphere for this winter have been repeatedly mentioned.

The negative descending QBO is a stratospheric factor.

The possibility of an enhanced Brewer Dobson circulation is a stratospheric factor.

Both are positive for cold lovers this winter.

However, the polar stratosphere is cooling rapidly presently and during this phase it is at it's most predictable (as indicated by the blue oval below) and we are unable to glean too much information just yet, until this period is over.

Ozone levels are not great presently, but patience is definitely the key word here.

[Catacol]

Sorry Chio - hadnt meant to sound tetchy. The graph you post there does show a remarkably narrow and predictable temp range and drop from July through until Oct/Nov. I presume this is the case back through the record. I had managed somehow to miss any comments on QBO (though I knew it was currently easterly and likely to remain so at the bottom of the atmosphere throughout winter) but had not picked up on any posts recently about Brewer-Dobson. That is a factor I am still getting to grips with.

Are these the only factors? What I was meaning to try and express was the sense that throughout autumn the SSW "specialists" seem to be shrugging shoulders a bit and saying - "wait for November and then we will open the shop", but taking a hypothetical scenario for a minute: let's imagine that the strat has a major warming at the end of November, a sign of a disrupted vortex 3 - 4 weeks later. Is there no mechanism still for predicting a likely stratospheric temperature rise at this time until we are very close to it? GP talks about mountain torque events impacting on temps; I have read you refer to wave breaking from higher up. Neither I fully understand yet. But these are comments that seem to pop up from Nov to March... and then we dont hear much of it at all.

Do torque / wave breaking events not happen in early autumn, or do they happen but have no effect?

[chionomaniac]

Warming events in the stratosphere in autumn /early winter do occur - they are called Canadian warmings and are situated over the Canadian Alaskan sector.

There is no way presently that we can accurately predict when warmings will occur, though from what we know we can suggest when stratospheric feedback from Rossby wave breaking will be likely - there is almost a cyclical pattern here. However, before the stratosphere can undergo warming it has to cool first.

Mountain torque/ wave breaking events are more pronounced in winter due to the increased temperature gradient from the polar cell - therefore it is all interlinked to the seasonal change both tropospherically and stratospherically and we have to wait for that to occur.

The wheel needs to start turning before we find out if anything will slow it down.

[UV-RAY]

Warming events in the stratosphere in autumn /early winter do occur - they are called Canadian warmings and are situated over the Canadian Alaskan sector.

There is no way presently that we can accurately predict when warmings will occur, though from what we know we can suggest when stratospheric feedback from Rossby wave breaking will be likely - there is almost a cyclical pattern here. However, before the stratosphere can undergo warming it has to cool first.

Mountain torque/ wave breaking events are more pronounced in winter due to the increased temperature gradient from the polar cell - therefore it is all interlinked to the seasonal change both tropospherically and stratospherically and we have to wait for that to occur.

The wheel needs to start turning before we find out if anything will slow it down.

I have to say it's a highly complex situation predicting warmings in the stratosphere, this thread is a great learning curve to us all here on net weather. I was a sceptic until last winter but thanks too yourself and GP I'm totally engrossed in this thread come winter. Edited September 22, 2012 by Seven of Nine

[chionomaniac]

I have to say it's a highly complex situation predicting warmings in the stratosphere, this thread is a great learning curve to us all here on net weather. I was a sceptic until last winter but thanks too yourself and GP I'm totally engrossed in this thread come winter.

Thanks, I think last winter should us all how difficult it is to get something out of a cold stratosphere. It wasn't until that broke that we had our chance.

[Catacol]

Warming events in the stratosphere in autumn /early winter do occur - they are called Canadian warmings and are situated over the Canadian Alaskan sector.

There is no way presently that we can accurately predict when warmings will occur, though from what we know we can suggest when stratospheric feedback from Rossby wave breaking will be likely - there is almost a cyclical pattern here. However, before the stratosphere can undergo warming it has to cool first.

Mountain torque/ wave breaking events are more pronounced in winter due to the increased temperature gradient from the polar cell - therefore it is all interlinked to the seasonal change both tropospherically and stratospherically and we have to wait for that to occur.

The wheel needs to start turning before we find out if anything will slow it down.

Thank you - this post helps me a lot in growing my thinking.

[syed2878]

i agree i've learned alot over the last year about the strat thanks to chio g.p and others. Chio this may sound stupid u say the poler stratosphere is cooling i know 1 of the effect is the strenthining of the pv, what other effects does a cooling strat have in the poler sector? Also when r u opening the new strat thread? Thanks.

[chionomaniac]

Opening a new thread in mid October, Syed, when the first new season indications come through.

The main effect of the cooling strat is increasing the temperature gradient between the polar strat and latitudes further south. Great paper on polar vortices here:

http://www.columbia.edu/~lmp/paps/waugh+polvani-PlumbFestVolume-2010.pdf

[johnholmes]

I did manage to read and understand most of the closing paragraph!

It really is amazing the understanding and progress in Stratospheric meteorology and climatology since I left UK Met in 1995. At that time one or two very very clever direct entrants into UK Met were starting to issue papers but that was about it.

LRF work, ie the monthly outlook was about as far as anyone was prepared to try.

Edited September 23, 2012 by johnholmes

[chionomaniac]

What- this one John?

Given the above outstanding issues, there is need for

continued research in the dynamics of the vortices and their

representation in global models

Very funny!

[johnholmes]

no be fair mate the last main para-there certainly is the need for more research-my fault for not being precise.

[Gray-Wolf]

I don't know whether this will just get brushed aside but the changes ,now occurring across the Arctic, must surely also impact the propagation of the SSW into the trop?

Is anyone willing to try and guess at the possible impacts, from the bottom up, of the heat now escaping into the atmosphere above the polar open water?

If we see a 'faux high' of warm air deflecting the formation of the P.V. over Greenland again this year will this not mess with the way a SSW transfers down through the atmosphere and manifests at the surface?

With such a dramatic reduction in ice cover this year (and most of it before solar insolation was at it's max?) we must have accrued record amounts of energy across the ocean basin and this energy will now ,in part, be emitted back into the atmosphere and surely drag things away from the 'old' average conditions?

[TEITS]

I was a sceptic until last winter but thanks too yourself and GP I'm totally engrossed in this thread come winter.

Im still a sceptic.

Whilst im convinced the stratosphere is a significant factor, im sceptical of our understanding and how it directly impacts our weather. I shall continue following this thread though because I do find the subject fasinating and appreciate CH contributions.

[SMU]

A slight uptick in temps over the past few days at 70 / 50 & 30 HPA which is always good news..............

S

[Weather-history]

Warming events in the stratosphere in autumn /early winter do occur - they are called Canadian warmings and are situated over the Canadian Alaskan sector.

This begs the question why there? Why not over Scandinavia? Why not over east Siberian?