Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2011/2012

[Alex]

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/html_e/pole30_n.html

Whilst the stratosphere will have very little effect until November it is perhaps interesting to note that it may have peaked for the year in the last few days.

If it dropped suddenly would it help remove heights to our north ie over Greenland.

[sebastiaan1973]

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.nl/p/updated-2012-2013-preliminary-winter.html this article mentions the very cold stratosphere right now. I guote: 'Something else we watch for is the stratosphere. Here, we see that temperatures at the 1mb level are right up against the 1979-2008 minimum levels, which does indicate that warmer weather should prevail for a little while. If the stratosphere drops below average levels going into the winter months and stays like that, we could very well have a repeat of last winter, where the stratosphere couldn't either warm or stay warm long enough to provoke typical winter weather. This abnormal cooling is also occurring at the 70mb level, which is where warming in the stratosphere becomes significant enough to provoke winter weather into action around the winter months.'

[chionomaniac]

http://theweathercen...ary-winter.html this article mentions the very cold stratosphere right now. I guote: 'Something else we watch for is the stratosphere. Here, we see that temperatures at the 1mb level are right up against the 1979-2008 minimum levels, which does indicate that warmer weather should prevail for a little while. If the stratosphere drops below average levels going into the winter months and stays like that, we could very well have a repeat of last winter, where the stratosphere couldn't either warm or stay warm long enough to provoke typical winter weather. This abnormal cooling is also occurring at the 70mb level, which is where warming in the stratosphere becomes significant enough to provoke winter weather into action around the winter months.'

I don't really go with this. He has cherry picked a chart from the top of the stratosphere that will have little relevance to the forthcoming winter. Any regular readers to this thread will know that the important time to be looking at the stratospheric temperatures is late autumn as a guide to winter, and also the temperatures lower down in the mid stratosphere do tend to give a better indication.

I haven't looked in any detail into the forth coming winter stratospherically - I believe it is a bit early yet - but a little further in the article highlighted, there are a few glaring errors. The chap states that the a SSW causes the QBO to reverse, but of course this is not true - the QBO is a phased tropical stratospheric wind that reverses bi annually - an SSW does not influence this, rather more so the QBO state can influence the chances of a SSW and whether propagation occurs.

[johnholmes]

another very well reasoned post there chio-as ever many thanks for throwing more light on this fascinating bit of the weather jigsaw.

[knocker]

Excellent post Chio. Funny enough I have been reading about this just this morning. Complicated subject the QBO but Mohanakumar agrees with your post. Not that I thought it was wrong. He says a statistically significant relationship exists between the frequency of the occurrence of SSWs in the high latitude region and the change in phases of the equatorial QBO.

[jethro]

Came across this and thought some may find it interesting.

Previous research concluded that large volcanic eruptions were needed to have an impact upon weather/climate, new research shows that smaller eruptions can have an impact too.

Dust from the Nabro volcano, being slightly heavier, settled out, but the monsoon lofted volcanic gas and the lighter liquid droplets into the stratosphere where they were detected by the Canadian Space Agency’s OSIRIS instrument aboard the Swedish satellite Odin. The Nabro volcano caused the largest stratospheric aerosol load ever recorded by OSIRIS in its more than 10 years of flight.

http://www.redorbit.com/news/science/1112651244/smaller-volcanoes-could-cool-climate-according-to-satellite-research/

[feb1991blizzard]

Just wondering what is the earliest point that it is worthwhile looking at ozone levels and temperatures in the stratosphere with regard to the likelyhood of Northern blocking developing in late Autumn and early winter.

[johnholmes]

Just wondering what is the earliest point that it is worthwhile looking at ozone levels and temperatures in the stratosphere with regard to the likelyhood of Northern blocking developing in late Autumn and early winter.

see post 1230 by chio who gives a first class update at regular intervals

[feb1991blizzard]

see post 1230 by chio who gives a first class update at regular intervals

Cheers John, i usally read every post on this thread, a bit dumb of me to miss one on this very page, sorry.

Just looked at the JMA link and 30hpa level temp running slightly above average but judging by chiono's post its not worth looking until october.

Edited August 16, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[sebastiaan1973]

http://192.102.233.1...011JD016493.pdf with the upcoming El Nino perhaps interesting to watch the exact center is. Hopefully Central Pacific.

We use NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data to show how

the two different types of El Niños (the central Pacific, or CP, and the east Pacific, or EP) result in remarkably different European winter temperature anomalies, specifically weak warming during EP and significant cooling during CP El Niños, the latter being associated with a negative phase of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Our results diverge from former suggestions addressing the weakened stratospheric polar vortex as the dominant factor contributing to the El Niño/NAO teleconnection. We propose a tropospheric bridge as the mechanism primarily responsible for the establishment of a negative NAO phase and of associated cold European winters. This mechanism includes the subtropical jet (STJ) waveguide being activated only during CP El Niños, when anomalous convective heating occurs near the edge of the Pacific warm pool. Under these conditions the STJ is enhanced by planetary wave flux divergence in the subtropical upper troposphere, providing favorable conditions for the propagation of a wave number 5 disturbance around the subtropical Northern Hemisphere. This wave contributes to

weakening of the Azores High and, hence, to the negative NAO phase. As global warming scenarios project an increase in the frequency of CP El Niño events, the distinctive nature of this mechanism implies that the probability of cold European winters may increase as well in future decades.

Edited August 21, 2012 by sebastiaan1973

[Snowmadsam]

http://192.102.233.1...011JD016493.pdf with the upcoming El Nino perhaps interesting to watch the exact center is. Hopefully Central Pacific.

We use NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data to show how

the two different types of El Niños (the central Pacific, or CP, and the east Pacific, or EP) result in remarkably different European winter temperature anomalies, specifically weak warming during EP and significant cooling during CP El Niños, the latter being associated with a negative phase of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Our results diverge from former suggestions addressing the weakened stratospheric polar vortex as the dominant factor contributing to the El Niño/NAO teleconnection. We propose a tropospheric bridge as the mechanism primarily responsible for the establishment of a negative NAO phase and of associated cold European winters. This mechanism includes the subtropical jet (STJ) waveguide being activated only during CP El Niños, when anomalous convective heating occurs near the edge of the Pacific warm pool. Under these conditions the STJ is enhanced by planetary wave flux divergence in the subtropical upper troposphere, providing favorable conditions for the propagation of a wave number 5 disturbance around the subtropical Northern Hemisphere. This wave contributes to

weakening of the Azores High and, hence, to the negative NAO phase. As global warming scenarios project an increase in the frequency of CP El Niño events, the distinctive nature of this mechanism implies that the probability of cold European winters may increase as well in future decades.

Fascinating read Well Done

[picog]

The new chart for the upcoming winter is available —and temp is just above average

http://ds.data.jma.g...e/pole30_n.html

That must be the signal for a new winter 2012/13 strat thread?

Edited September 5, 2012 by picog

[Mark Bayley]

The new chart for the upcoming winter is available —and temp is just above average

http://ds.data.jma.g...e/pole30_n.html

That must be the signal for a new winter 2012/13 strat thread?

I think Chino usually sets one up towards the end of October, which is also when the ECM charts become available > http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/diag.php and more specifically > http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ts.php?plot=temps&alert=1&lng=eng and http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ts.php?plot=fluxes&alert=1&lng=eng . At this point we can start monitoring the stratospheric conditions to see what impact they may have for the end of November and the start of winter, i.e. December!

[chionomaniac]

I will probably set a new thread up mid October this year. I think that this is the time that we can judge how late November and early winter will fare tropospherically. As always, looking forward to it!

[chionomaniac]

I feel we have been saying this for years. Great to have some back up.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-19584302

Hopefully we will have more on board again this winter!

[sebastiaan1973]

http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/7/3/034031/pdf/1748-9326_7_3_034031.pdf

Seasonal forecasts of northern hemisphere winter 2009/10

D R Fereday, A Maidens, A Arribas, A A Scaife and J R Knight

[cooling climate]

I feel we have been saying this for years. Great to have some back up.

http://www.bbc.co.uk...onment-19584302

Hopefully we will have more on board again this winter!

I thought the same thing when reading the Met articles on SSW's and the winter of

2009/10. I wonder if the Met have realised the importence of the stratosphere, SSW's,

QBO and solar forcing from reading threads like this one. They never had much to say

about the stratosphere until a couple of years ago.

[Weather-history]

I feel we have been saying this for years. Great to have some back up.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-19584302

Hopefully we will have more on board again this winter!

Is it me or is the title of that article poorly worded? How can they say they are better at predicting "extreme winters"? Surely you need proof and currently they have none.

[chionomaniac]

Is it me or is the title of that article poorly worded? How can they say they are better at predicting "extreme winters"? Surely you need proof and currently they have none.

Yes they have missed the words 'hope to be'!

[BornFromTheVoid]

Is it me or is the title of that article poorly worded? How can they say they are better at predicting "extreme winters"? Surely you need proof and currently they have none.

Perhaps they said it because of this part?

"Retrospectively, using the high-top model with atmospheric data available from autumn 2009, the Met Office said that they could have seen the cold coming farther ahead if they had been able to use the new model."

It is great to see the stratosphere gaining a greater consideration in forecasting all the same.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Are we getting close to a new thread Chino?

[SMU]

still 4-6 weeks away from anything meaningful....

S

[SMU]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/temperature/50mb9065.gif

Stratosphere currently slightly colder than ave tracking below the mean.....

S

[Boro_andy]

Could do with that improving a touch. Or at least maintaining current level...

[johnholmes]

the question to ask is what was the position in preceding years at this time, even then it may have no relevance to what may happen this year?

Anyone got the previous years data, I was given a link but as usual I have lost it!