Model Output Discussion - Early November Onwards

[Cheshire Freeze]

Not sure you will find too many keen to ditch a highly amplified pattern in early November for zonality. Patience required. I recall how mild autumn 2009 was before the sudden change mid month. We will not see a change as soon as that but I feel it will not be too many weeks before retrogression delivers something.

Too right. Though this current pattern is all or nothing- you either sit in the polar air for weeks or you get stuck in the warm sector. Boom or bust for us this winter it seems with little in between.

[Frosty.]

The latest gfs brings yet more mild weather next week, not as mild as recently but still above average, it also brings some rain from the west to mainly affect western and northern areas with the south and east being drier and brigher as the high pressure block to the north east shows no sign of going away. During the following week it looks more anticyclonic for all areas but with overnight fog and ground frosts likely, the 6z then shows a half hearted plunge of polar maritime air followed by an atlantic high pushing east but then a more vigorous depression at the end of the run which may have enough power to displace the high, the 00z gfs brought a brief potent cold snap late in FI but the 6z delays it but BFTP said yesterday that he's not expecting a change to colder weather until the last week of the month so I suppose any cold snap before then is a bonus but we have a few more weeks to wait before any pattern change can take place.

[Frosty.]

Every time I look at the ECM it finishes with the high pressure stuck in the continent and a warm south/southeasterly flow over us!

The CFS temperature probability forecast is nightmare material for a good chunk of winter! http://www.cpc.ncep....s3/euT2mMon.gif

Karyo

Shame the ecm doesn't go to T+384 like the gfs as no change to the mild pattern is within T+240 and won't be for some time. I like the fact that the gfs is trying to bring colder weather after mid month but it currently doesn't look like a pattern that would get a foot hold but any form of cold snap would do. It looks like anouther 10-15 days of mild or very mild weather ahead of us so there would have to be a very potent cold spell later in the month to dent what looks like being a mega mild CET for november.

[Rocheydub]

Looking at GFS waaaaaay into FI is lovely, -8 uppers and Dam line near 528 too from Friday 18th of this month!

Now if only that would verify.....

*wakes up with face in cornflakes*

Am I going mad, or did the GFS have this on their earlier charts? It's gone now of course, but did anyone else see this earlier?

I was using the wetterzentral app on the phone at the time!!!

[Frosty.]

Am I going mad, or did the GFS have this on their earlier charts? It's gone now of course, but did anyone else see this earlier? I was using the wetterzentral app on the phone at the time!!!

it was blink or you miss it but it might return again, seems all we can hope for is something to pop up in fantasy island 14 day range at the earliest but the gfs 00z did show a cold snap but it didn't have the legs to last for more than a few days or indeed the very next run either.

[karyo]

Am I going mad, or did the GFS have this on their earlier charts? It's gone now of course, but did anyone else see this earlier?

I was using the wetterzentral app on the phone at the time!!!

Serves you right for paying attention to anything past 240 hours! lol

Karyo

[Rocheydub]

Serves you right for paying attention to anything past 240 hours! lol

Karyo

This is true, or even 120 hours, for that matter

[Costa Del Fal]

Quick post from me but for the first time in a good while the NAO and AO look like going negative shortly. A couple of members keep things neutral or weakly positive but the majority going negative.

[Frosty.]

As Joe laminate floori has been saying recently, patience Grasshopper..patience the models today have not brought us any closer to a cold spell, indeed, it now looks like turning even milder during next week with a renewed S'ly feed from southern europe/west africa so temps will again reach the mid 60's F probably. There are a few tentative signs of a pattern change beyond mid month but it's still out of focus until sometime next week, a continuation of the current benign weather pattern can't be ruled out through to the closure of autumn.

[Snowmad79]

Just pointing out again RE what Steve M said yesterday RE: LP tracking north through Newfoundland and high pressure over Greenland that we should be watching. Not quite sure on what the ideal track of the LP is supposed to be but the GFS 6z shows the HP over Greenland beef up to 1045mb at 162 hrs as LP heads north over Newfoundland providing better warm air advection.

So atleast theres still something being continued from yesterday and worth watching to see how that little senario (as explained by SM) progresses or whether it gets dropped.

[mcweather]

I,m not sure if anyone has picked up on this yet from Matt Hugo. Meteorologist at Weather Commerce. He has access to the ECM 32 day output and posted this over on Two yesterday morning.

Morning all...

Well I hold good news, well depending on your terminology of good news that is. I've looked at the latest EC 32 day info this morning and the signal for a pattern change later in November and into early December is still there and in a big way!

Up to the middle of month high pressure persists to the E and this maintains relatively mild conditions, driest in the E, wettest in the W etc. However, beyond mid-month what the model is signalling is for high pressure to migrate and there is then the development of a +ve pressure anom to the N or NW of the UK during the final week of November and into early December, as low pressure becomes dominant to the S. In essence the final week of the 32 day forecast is signalling a pattern similar to that of last year with E or NE'lies across the UK and there is a dramatic drop in temperature forecast during the final quarter of the forecast period.

Clearly I put emphasis on this model signalling a potential pattern change this time last week and whilst any longer term model is open to change, I do have quite a decent liking to this model as it has picked up trends at times throughout this year weeks in advance. Clearly this post will be fascinating to read and come back to in around 3 weeks time to see what is actually on the horizon for the end of November, but IF this model is picking up this pattern change correctly then it would seem that another dramatic turn-around to something far more wintry is likely towards the end of November onwards...

Time will tell!...

Matt.

Matthew Hugo BSc(Hons), FRMetS

Meteorologist

Weather Commerce Ltd

On Twitter @MattHugo81

Interesting developments could be afoot but as ever patience will be required. I would imagine that if this pattern change is still showing up next week that the Meto 30 dayer could turn out to be an interesting read when it is updated next friday. I would add that my experience of Matt's posts is that he is very measured and not given to cold and snow ramping.

Edited November 5, 2011 by mcweather

[Strider]

Regarding ECM's LRF, is that ran at a higher resolution than their normal model?

I mean we wouldn't take their T240 as gospel so shouldn't we be a little cautious with this output? ... ...

Just sayin'

[Frosty.]

Regarding ECM's LRF, is that ran at a higher resolution than their normal model? I mean we wouldn't take their T240 as gospel so shouldn't we be a little cautious with this output? ... ... Just sayin'

Agreed, there are going to be plenty of bumps in the road as well as twists and turns so it won't be plain sailing to a much colder pattern but it is starting to look as though something different is afoot after mid month, a very slow moving and mild pattern is assured for the next few weeks.

[J10]

Am I going mad, or did the GFS have this on their earlier charts? It's gone now of course, but did anyone else see this earlier?

I was using the wetterzentral app on the phone at the time!!!

Using GFS charts on Net Weather, charts are kept for a full week. This can be very handy when comparing charts.

http://hw.nwstatic.c.../h850t850eu.png

As for cold spotting, this seems a long way off at the moment.

[cyclonic happiness]

One thing for sure is that something this crap and blobby looking would never verify! (see below)

As I said earlier, the gfs always goes into 'Mr Blobby' mode just before an unusual or cold/severe cold spell is about to appear, it did it last year and the year before.

I think it's just the GFS's way of sorting it's head out.

[summer blizzard]

I quite like the 12z models in terms of long range potential.

Both models show the Polar Vortex moving into north eastern Scandinavia but keep the pattern amplified which would signal a pressure build over Greenland and probable retrogression.

AO forecasts are also negative.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Ensembles show nothing supportive of snow however i would keep an eye on the 17th as there has been at least one member supporting the -5C isotherm for several days now.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

the ECMWF looks exceptionally mild, for next sat-mon, maybe a 20°C to be reached for some eastern areas, certainly would be very hot from may-Aug

[Snowmadsam]

Raw CFS data looks good

looks interesting....very interesting.....

[NorthYorksWeather]

If we are still getting Southerlys by 240hr il be very surprised. I think a pattern change is inevitable and by this time next week we will know exactly what will happen. Not sure exactly how accurate the ensembles are but for a few days now I've been watching them and a cooler trend towards the end of month is looking more likely. For Aberdeen the ensemble mean drops to near -5 hpa and for here around 0 hpa. This would suggest a northerly wind is most likely. Definatley going to be watching the charts closely over the next week.

[NorthYorksWeather]

Raw CFS data looks good

Fancy sharing a cheeky chart for those poorer snow freaks?

looks interesting....very interesting.....

[chionomaniac]

If we are still getting Southerlys by 240hr il be very surprised. I think a pattern change is inevitable and by this time next week we will know exactly what will happen. Not sure exactly how accurate the ensembles are but for a few days now I've been watching them and a cooler trend towards the end of month is looking more likely. For Aberdeen the ensemble mean drops to near -5 hpa and for here around 0 hpa. This would suggest a northerly wind is most likely. Definatley going to be watching the charts closely over the next week.

I think that this post is slightly misleading. Here are the Aberdeen 850 hPa temperature ensembles from the GFS 12Z run.

My comments would be that the temperature is consistently above average and only gets close to average at the extreme of FI in 15 days time. Even at the end of the run the mean is well above the -5ºC line. it is certainly not a trend I would be getting excited about.

We may get a temperature drop close to average in around 15 days time is how I would view these!

[Summer Sun]

The start of next week starts of under high pressure, which should keep most dry but cloudy and warm for the time of year,

http://www.wetterzen...ics/Recm481.gif

http://www.wetterzen...ics/Recm961.gif

By the end of the week the East will be best whilst the west becomes prone to low pressure

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1441.gif

Before we get this

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1921.gif

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm2161.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif

I don't know where any pattern change is likely to happen as I see nothing other than normal or above normal temperatures for the forseeable future

[chionomaniac]

How is it misleading? I said close to -5hpa I wasn't comparing to the average just making an observation. To be honest this is why I don't post in on the forum because there's always someone who can't keep there gob shut and has to reply saying your wrong. In not an expert and I my be wrong but this forum is for everyone and we all have the right to give input regarding the models.

You are certainly an expert in rudeness.

[wolvesfan]

Evening all,just finished viewing tonights ECMWF,correct me if i'm wrong but big diffrence tonight to me being high pressure now around Baffin out at 240 and also looks like high pressure also to scandi,both areas showing troughing on the 00Z,would this correlate with the NAO turning negative.also i realise still well out of the reliable but thought it could be worth keeping an eye on.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Evening all,just finished viewing tonights ECMWF,correct me if i'm wrong but big diffrence tonight to me being high pressure now around Baffin out at 240 and also looks like high pressure also to scandi,both areas showing troughing on the 00Z,would this correlate with the NAO turning negative.also i realise still well out of the reliable but thought it could be worth keeping an eye on.

In response to your post WF is your opinion one that would support a pattern change to something cooler in the next couple of weeks? My knowledge of the NAO is very limited. When it turns negative as you state what usually happens to the weather/temperature etc around our parts. Thanks GSL

Edited November 5, 2011 by Grimsby Snow Lover