Model Output Discussion - Early November Onwards

[Jason T]

GFS18z is a poor run and pretty implausible in late FI.

We get the split in the Jet Stream with most of the energy in the northern low which is fair enough however this low is further east then other runs have indicated and as such we get a zonal flow which again is fair enough.

The implausible bit is that we get a Greenland High out of no where from a zonal pattern.

I don't think this will be the actual solution.

What makes you believe this is not the solution,I believe this inplausible (BIT) is a big starting feature for a new pattern being set out. For a short while now FI has been producing a pattern change,and why not ...This year since may has been a le-borius stuck in rut type but thrown in the mix has been,Well abnormal temps in season's through-out. I am very happy at the moment with what is being shown. Along with that the big knowledgables are now posting,From experiance when they start posting a change is on the horizon. Model output will become very interesting over the next couple of weeks. I believe we all have a deep GUILTY pleasure for a severe winter,There has been so many differented LRF regarding winter 2011/2012 that it has become impossible to know what will and what won't,However it only takes 1 signal from data to be incorrect and the outcome can be completely different later on. Am i talking complete rubbish..Probably but then do we all really know.

Edited November 5, 2011 by silver line

[summer blizzard]

I do believe that we will get a pattern change but not as the GFS18z describes. What the GFS18z does is put energy into a low south of Greenland which is a classic harbinger of zonality and then suddenly has a Greenland High popping up.

The pattern change will come from a 12z like pattern in my opinion.

[The watcher]

well if it dosen't occur, it was a guess or a wrong call.i accept that but it seems some folk are already getting wound up about winter and we havn't even got autumn out of the way.

no harm in having a guess as to what may or may not happen.but lets remember at this NOW present time thats all these predictions are.

would any of them put their house on their predictions?

i think not.

That's basically an insult to those who spend their time letting us know how certain factors are shaping up to influence our weather...wether it be similar or changeable.

I'd bet that the weather today will be different to that (in you area) in 2 weeks time. I already know I'll win however, because no day is EXACTLY the same.

[ICETAB]

00z GFS continues to suggest a pattern change around mid-month. I still say we will get the first taste of winter on the 18th. That conclusion is not based on one run. I have seen a pattern change showing on the 00z GFS over the past four days.

I live in the NW so the current FI synoptic setup showing on this morning’s GFS would suit perfectly

[mushymanrob]

Me too, I would gamble my mortgage with any member on here that there will be no snow south of Scotland anywhere in November at the very least!

go on then, do it. seriously....

some very mild conditions appear to be afoot later in the week, along with some drying out (which will suit those that are saturated). signes of an inevitable cool down might occur after mid-month.

[mountain shadow]

I personally cannot see any signs of a colder spell. Pattern remains pretty much the same with an atlantic trough and euro high bringing predominate southerly winds. Mild or very mild for all.

[ICETAB]

I personally cannot see any signs of a colder spell. Pattern remains pretty much the same with an atlantic trough and euro high bringing predominate southerly winds. Mild or very mild for all.

Agreed, I cannot see any changes in the reliable. I expect this to change next week though. GFS has been showing signs of a cool down in FI for a while now, have you noticed this?

[cyclonic happiness]

The GFS and the ECM both look very wobbly in their detail from mid run onwards, I'd suggest it's because they still haven't got to grip with the upcoming pattern change, the same as they didn't last year.

Not bad runs all in all, loads of potential

[Liam J]

Messy and slack looking pressure pattern shown by the GFS & ECMWF 00z runs, a bit like jelly!

Still on course for a very mild spell next week with S/SE winds dragging warmer air up from Spain, ECM would end very mild indeed. A record November CET perhaps? Depending on where things went after mid month.

Any pattern change still out in low res on the GFS, reliable frame it continues mild to very mild with rain at times.

Edited November 5, 2011 by Liam J

[mountain shadow]

Not bad runs all in all, loads of potential

Erm, could you back this statement up with some charts please? I cannot see any potential at all. Certainly no sign of height rises to the north. PV whilst not raging is very much in evidence.

[bluearmy]

Erm, could you back this statement up with some charts please? I cannot see any potential at all. Certainly no sign of height rises to the north. PV whilst not raging is very much in evidence.

if you look at the NH ens plots, you will see that the flow on our side of the NH is very amplified. assuming that continues, we have a shot at ending up in the right part of the amplification. agreed that for the foreseeable, we are in the warm sector of that blocking, but what happens as we enter the final third of november is open to question as upstream WAA could promote retrogression of the block. tenuous at the moment but much more likely to get something cold from an amplified pattern that a flat zonal one.

[Nick F]

It looks to me like a 'rinse and repeat' of the synoptic pattern of recent days, with another slow-moving long-wave trough setting up camp to the west of western Europe dragging in unseasonably mild S to SE'erlies before the long-wave disrupts into an upper low.

Over the last week we have seen a slow-moving long-wave trough close to our west, which disrupted into a cut-off low over France/Iberia yesterday - due to the blocking ridge to the east.

Likewise, by next weekend the trough to the west disrupts, though this time ECM and GFS both agree this morning (see 8-10 day H500 comparison below) that it may occur further west over the east Atlantic - which may lead to a different outcome beyond with some mid-Latitude ridging perhaps, and maybe followed by a change in pattern.

But realistically any change to something alot colder is a long-way off of reality for now.

[Rocheydub]

Looking at GFS waaaaaay into FI is lovely, -8 uppers and Dam line near 528 too from Friday 18th of this month!

Now if only that would verify.....

*wakes up with face in cornflakes*

[bluearmy]

Fwiw, the end of the 00z naefs update continues to advertise an amplified pattern our sector of the NH. The mean ridge probably centred further west and extending to our north. An amplified pattern will mean that cold air is displaced into the mid latitudes - then we have to look to Lady Luck. A chance of some cooler air into the north east of the uk around mid month if we get the Atlantic ridging over the trough but that apart, an average to mild outlook out to the 20th.

[chionomaniac]

Fwiw, the end of the 00z naefs update continues to advertise an amplified pattern our sector of the NH. The mean ridge probably centred further west and extending to our north. An amplified pattern will mean that cold air is displaced into the mid latitudes - then we have to look to Lady Luck. A chance of some cooler air into the north east of the uk around mid month if we get the Atlantic ridging over the trough but that apart, an average to mild outlook out to the 20th.

I think the pattern is already quite amplified and has been for a while over our segment of the NH. Unfortunately for cold lovers we have been in the warm sector and as I said yesterday evening we need quite a nudge to bring about sufficient change to alter the pattern significantly. I suspect that the current mountain torque allied to the MJO forecasts is insufficient presently but increases the likelihood further down the line.

[bluearmy]

I think the pattern is already quite amplified and has been for a while over our segment of the NH. Unfortunately for cold lovers we have been in the warm sector and as I said yesterday evening we need quite a nudge to bring about sufficient change to alter the pattern significantly. I suspect that the current mountain torque allied to the MJO forecasts is insufficient presently but increases the likelihood further down the line.

indeed chio - the bitter air currently flooding through the western urals towards eastern ukraine and the 'stan' nations as a response to the current 'sceuro' ridge. i wasnt forecasting an amplified pattern - merely indicating that naefs continues to see such right out to T384.

[shedhead]

There's nothing in the current outputs to suggest any significant pattern change, so IF things continue as progged a record breaking warm November might well become a distinct possibilty.

Edited November 5, 2011 by shedhead

[MP-R]

I think quite simply that the models are currently fantastic for summer and bl**dy boring for November. The GFS shows exacly what happens to the Atlantic trough when it moves SEwards: instead of staying strong as it moves over warmer waters, it peters out and so no easterly or northeasterly forms behind it - just a rather shabby high pressure system.

FI shows the lows firing up again but moving along well to our north. A more southerly track would be a good start! All in all, generally mild or average for the near future with the possibility of some cold'er' nights if we fall under a high pressure area.

[karyo]

Every time I look at the ECM it finishes with the high pressure stuck in the continent and a warm south/southeasterly flow over us!

The CFS temperature probability forecast is nightmare material for a good chunk of winter! http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/euT2mMon.gif

Karyo

[TonyH]

My guide to the coming weeks weather, comparing west Wales and the central Midlands, using the latest model output and local knowledge:

http://forum.netweat...on/page__st__80

Edited November 5, 2011 by Tonyh

[cold snap]

gfs ukmo ecm all giving the same signals going forward ,unti we get rid of that good for nothing euro high we are going to stay in the same boat,as others have comented,i firmly believe that the way forward now would be a west to east zonal flow.then we may be at some stage be able to disrupt the flow upstream,we need to get back to full on zonal before we see some improvement if its cold you after.if its not hope that high can stay where it is, still early in the season however if this would be january .i hate to think the mood on this board

[ITSY]

all FI shows atm as a half-blooded HP rise to our NW which never really makes it presence felt in the right area for us due to a variety of pesky LPs getting in the way. nothing to be excited about - except for an end to this dreary dulness!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Hmmm some really strange charts for the time of year with some abnormally warm upper air marking its territory over us. What I find strange is that we are not mild by default of powerful northerly jet, more the opposite which is enabling the Euro high to sit in situ which is preventing us from lurching into a colder pattern. I can't say I'm worried about this though because patterns in October/November very rarely last into the winter season which suggests that it is entirely possible for us to become entrenched in the colder loop of the amplified jet during the months that matter. I think the state of the synoptics come early December will tell us where we are headed this winter.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Some may notice a few deleted posts on the last page. There were also some more that could have gone. If one of yours has been deleted, it's just to try and keep this thread on track. There are plenty of other threads to discuss almost every conceivable aspect of the weather, so it's just a question of finding the right one at the right time.

[bluearmy]

gfs ukmo ecm all giving the same signals going forward ,unti we get rid of that good for nothing euro high we are going to stay in the same boat,as others have comented,i firmly believe that the way forward now would be a west to east zonal flow.then we may be at some stage be able to disrupt the flow upstream,we need to get back to full on zonal before we see some improvement if its cold you after.if its not hope that high can stay where it is, still early in the season however if this would be january .i hate to think the mood on this board

Not sure you will find too many keen to ditch a highly amplified pattern in early November for zonality. Patience required. I recall how mild autumn 2009 was before the sudden change mid month. We will not see a change as soon as that but I feel it will not be too many weeks before retrogression delivers something.