Model Output Discussion - Early November Onwards

[stewfox]

Not sure whether I should post this as I'm not adding anything to the discussion but just would like to say, from a utter novice point of view that it can be incredibly confusing reading this thread! Obviously love reading everyone's input but I keep seeing comments about it getting colder and then comments about no sign of cold in the models so not quite sure what to believe!

Are the folk who say they can see signs of cold using data not shown in the charts? A lot of the people who say they can't see cold coming tend to back it up with evidence, (not that I understand it when they do as a novice) but I don't see it happening with folk who predict cold so are they going on more of a hunch? Or is it that the charts out in FI have that much info packed in that some people can see a slight hint of cold?

Anyway, I love reading the posts as I'm sure a lot of novices do like me who are all looking for and wanting it to get colder so please don't take this as a dig as it isn't meant that way, just looking to understand a bit more.

Thanks

Model watching isn't an exact science. They is general concensus it remains on the mild side for the next two weeks and then as we head into F1 people putting opinions.

SM and the like picking up signals for a pattern shift to something more colder, others picking up signals of it remaining on the mild or at best average.

Time will tell who is right.

[Liam J]

then as we head into F1

What does F1 mean??

Well nothing changed on the overnight runs, mild to very mild conditions next week. We could have a very warm November on our hands.

Edited November 6, 2011 by Liam J

[Frosty.]

As we go further into november, it looks like becoming milder instead of colder, back to 16-18c next weekend? we had colder days than that in summer!!!!! the only reason it won't be as freakishly warm in the next five days is the expected lack of sunshine which will be a combination of anticyclonic gloom and approaching weak atlantic fronts but then a thrust of milder air from the south later as a more vigorous low approaches sw ireland later in the week.

[trisnow]

Thanks chio, wolves and stew for the replies

So in short, chart watching and understanding is a minefield! I'll look at some of the posts as a "Parliamentary Session" political debate set up then and hope the outcome benefits me as a Cold party member.

[wolvesfan]

Thanks chio, wolves and stew for the replies

So in short, chart watching and understanding is a minefield! I'll look at some of the posts as a "Parliamentary Session" political debate set up then and hope the outcome benefits me as a Cold party member.

Hello trisnow,one thing i wouldn't discount when model watching is the hunch,especialy when looking out of the model range,theres no science to back it up but as in life can pay divedends if you trust in it.this is however contreversial to say the least and am not sure if its straying too far off topic but just thought i'd add it.cherrs.

[wimblettben]

GFS seems to keep us predominately under mildish air with a Low out to the West at +63 hours.

Edited November 6, 2011 by wimblettben

[shedhead]

Thanks chio, wolves and stew for the replies So in short, chart watching and understanding is a minefield! I'll look at some of the posts as a "Parliamentary Session" political debate set up then and hope the outcome benefits me as a Cold party member.

There are certain posters on here who do what is says on the tin, i.e comment on the models whatever they show, irrespective of their cold bias. Then there are those (who to be fair in Winter make up the vast majority) who tend to see what they want to see and comment accordingly, that is why you will often find post suggesting it's may, might, could, should, probably, will turn colder, even when there really is no basis for it - hopecasting actually sums up this activity very nicely. Rather than name names, I think you should quickly spot those that offer more reasoned, comprehensive analyses' of what is going on and is likely to go on further down the line, at which point the cold rampers, hopecasters call them what you will, should start to stand out like sore thumbs. Edited November 6, 2011 by shedhead

[rug]

It's just the weather boys and girls . I can't believe how tetchy this thread becomes sometimes. Winter has not even begun and already the antagonism is becoming rife on here.

Edited November 6, 2011 by rug

[Uncle_Barty]

It's called hopecasting!

Indeed!

I know he is away for a couple of weeks now, but when he returns, Gibby's twice daily summaries of the 00h and 12h model output are well worth a read as he tells things as they are without any "cold bias", or otherwise, for that matter!

What does F1 mean??

It's Eff Eye (FI )

F1 is 24 powerful cars with big tyres going round a circuit at speeds of up to 200mph. Even faster than the jet stream!

Back to this morning's output. Still 'as you were' - mild for the foreseeable. If there is one crumb of comfort for cold lovers, it's that the pattern remains meridional rather than flat zonal, and that a decent shift in the wavelength pattern could markedly cool things down for us, but not much sign of that in the models right now.

Edited November 6, 2011 by Jim_AFCB

[Fozfoster]

Fi is fantasy island sorry jim

[johnholmes]

There are certain posters on here who do what is says on the tin, i.e comment on the models whatever they show, irrespective of their cold bias. Then there are those (who to be fair in Winter make up the vast majority) who tend to see what they want to see and comment accordingly, that is why you will often find post suggesting it's may, might, could, should, probably, will turn colder, even when there really is no basis for it - hopecasting actually sums up this activity very nicely. Rather than name names, I think you should quickly spot those that offer more reasoned, comprehensive analyses' of what is going on and is likely to go on further down the line, at which point the cold rampers, hopecasters call them what you will, should start to stand out like sore thumbs.

very well put shedhead

Not sure whether I should post this as I'm not adding anything to the discussion but just would like to say, from a utter novice point of view that it can be incredibly confusing reading this thread! Obviously love reading everyone's input but I keep seeing comments about it getting colder and then comments about no sign of cold in the models so not quite sure what to believe!

Are the folk who say they can see signs of cold using data not shown in the charts? A lot of the people who say they can't see cold coming tend to back it up with evidence, (not that I understand it when they do as a novice) but I don't see it happening with folk who predict cold so are they going on more of a hunch? Or is it that the charts out in FI have that much info packed in that some people can see a slight hint of cold?

Anyway, I love reading the posts as I'm sure a lot of novices do like me who are all looking for and wanting it to get colder so please don't take this as a dig as it isn't meant that way, just looking to understand a bit more.

Thanks

hi and welcome to Net Weather.

Others have already described what happens on here especially during winter. Perhaps you might like to look at the Net Wx Guides section. In there are lots of explanations about all manner of things to do with understanding the models/weather etc. One on using the GFS output to try and forecast for your location. It needs very little understanding of the models. But to be honest I would spend time trying to learn, don't be afraid to ask questions, pm me if you wish.

Enjoy watching the weather.

oh, my old hobby horse! - could you stick your nearest town in your avatar so we all know where your reports of your weather are coming from please - thanks

[Frosty.]

As one radio forecaster just said, it's disappointingly cool today, only 12-14c :smiliz19: but the models show temps slowly nudging back towards 15-17c as the week progresses and perhaps back to 18c next weekend if there is some sunshine to boost the high T850's. A very gloomy week ahead with patchy rain or drizzle and mist on hills. Today is another sunny day for scotland and northern ireland and tomorrow will be the same but with an early frost but then cloudy everywhere from tuesday onwards but becoming even milder.

[shedhead]

As one radio forecaster just said, it's disappointingly cool today, only 12-14c :smiliz19: but the models show temps slowly nudging back towards 15-17c as the week progresses and perhaps back to 18c next weekend if there is some sunshine to boost the high T850's. A very gloomy week ahead with patchy rain or drizzle and mist on hills. Today is another sunny day for scotland and northern ireland and tomorrow will be the same but with an early frost but then cloudy everywhere from tuesday onwards but becoming even milder.

Yep, we are well and truely caught between a rock and a hard place at present, the rock being the Atlantic trough and the hard place being our limpet Euro High. All indications are little if anything is going to change across the reliable timeframe,(the mind boggles regarding what sort of max/min's this situ would have thrown up in July), so for those of us seeking cold the P word remains very much to the fore - apparantly it's supposed to be a virtue!! Edited November 6, 2011 by shedhead

[johnholmes]

I'll post some 500mb charts and chat about them in a short time-got to go out just now. I'm not so sure things are going to stay as they are major wave length wise.

[bluearmy]

the fi ens output continues to promote a -NAO of sorts by the time we get beyond mid month. however, i am wondering if this may well end up west based with our part of nw europe seeing the continuation of flow south of west/east. the spreads on naefs and ecm both show a strong depression likely in the area nw russia/eastern scandi by T240. that may well be responsible for the closeness of some cooler air to ne scotland which some of you are seeing on various output. i doubt this will make any further inroads towards us and will be a glancing blow at best to the far ne. todays naefs continues to show an amplified flow as far as the model goes although it should be noted that yesterdays 12z update was rather flatter than we have seen for some time in deep fi. the end result of all this is 'plus ca change' with things staying on the mild side whilst we reside in the warm part of the amplification for the next week or two.

[Frosty.]

I'm not so sure things are going to stay as they are major wave length wise.

That sounds promising Mr H, the problem is, even when the pattern does change, it may only be a change to a flatter zonal pattern with the uk on the mild side of the PFJ. If this pattern was to persist into december, the alarm bells would probably start ringing rather loudly.

[karyo]

If you are hoping for a cold winter look away now! http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/euT2mMon.gif

This time last year the CFS had north Europe under deep blue for December and light blue for January!

Expect the worst to avoid disappointment me thinks...

Karyo

[nick sussex]

If you are hoping for a cold winter look away now! http://www.cpc.ncep....s3/euT2mMon.gif

This time last year the CFS had north Europe under deep blue for December and light blue for January!

Expect the worst to avoid disappointment me thinks...

Karyo

Oh the infamous CPC charts!

Looking at that it would suggest a strong flat jet with high pressure to the south hence the colder temps in the southern Med with that flow there coming from the east and ne.

Positively I have zero faith in that output especially as it progged colder than average for this part of Europe for last January and February when indeed it was one of the warmest on record!

Indeed now that its gone for mild I'm even more encouraged!

[Frosty.]

If you are hoping for a cold winter look away now! http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/euT2mMon.gif This time last year the CFS had north Europe under deep blue for December and light blue for January! Expect the worst to avoid disappointment me thinks... Karyo

I am certainly not expecting a cold winter but i am hoping for at least a few cold snaps and also hoping that Jan/Feb will produce more than last time which was almost nothing, just a change from the current pattern will be a start! back to the models.....M I L D OR VERY MILD.

Edited November 6, 2011 by Polar_ Low

[karyo]

Oh the infamous CPC charts!

Looking at that it would suggest a strong flat jet with high pressure to the south hence the colder temps in the southern Med with that flow there coming from the east and ne.

Positively I have zero faith in that output especially as it progged colder than average for this part of Europe for last January and February when indeed it was one of the warmest on record!

Indeed now that its gone for mild I'm even more encouraged!

The CFS did well for the UK and north Europe last winter though! I think for up to 2 months ahead it is pretty reliable so that takes us to January.

Karyo

[ribster]

There are certain posters on here who do what is says on the tin, i.e comment on the models whatever they show, irrespective of their cold bias. Then there are those (who to be fair in Winter make up the vast majority) who tend to see what they want to see and comment accordingly, that is why you will often find post suggesting it's may, might, could, should, probably, will turn colder, even when there really is no basis for it - hopecasting actually sums up this activity very nicely. Rather than name names, I think you should quickly spot those that offer more reasoned, comprehensive analyses' of what is going on and is likely to go on further down the line, at which point the cold rampers, hopecasters call them what you will, should start to stand out like sore thumbs.

You forgot to mention those that do exactly the same when we are in a cold spell, clinging on to every mild chart in FI, because that's the sort of weather they want to see return. More importantly, there are those that take delight in the fact that there is no cold on offer, and rub other peoples noses in it - these also stick out like a sore thumb.

Also, one or two seem to get a little too het up, when people post F1 instead of FI - good grief, does it matter, especially when it's a completely made up unscientific term anyway!!

[nick sussex]

In the shorter term there is some disagreement regarding how amplified that troughing is over the ne USA at day 6.

The GFS 06hrs run really flattens that out and is similar to the NOGAPS.

The UKMO does have a much more amplified trough which will effect heights over Greenland. Of course the best output of the day is the GEM but thats been dismal recently in terms of its reliability and at 240hrs you'd have very little faith in it.

Overall the limpet high and trough to the west are reluctant to depart the scene and this marriage is becoming tiresome for cold lovers, time for a scandal and divorce papers to be issued!

[Frosty.]

The CFS did well for the UK and north Europe last winter though! I think for up to 2 months ahead it is pretty reliable so that takes us to January. Karyo

we had a cold december but jan/feb were rubbish, cfs is only experimental and can't be trusted any more than gfs @ T+384 hours

when people post F1 instead of FI - good grief, does it matter, especially when it's a completely made up unscientific term anyway!!

I think formula 1 is more exciting than the latest FI MODEL output.

[nick sussex]

The CFS did well for the UK and north Europe last winter though! I think for up to 2 months ahead it is pretty reliable so that takes us to January.

Karyo

Do you have shares in it? :smilz38:

It got the late winter and spring here completely wrong and I have very little faith in it. And given that this thread has been awash with doom and gloom recently maybe its best to not post that link in case it sends some people over the edge!!!

[johnholmes]

If you are hoping for a cold winter look away now! http://www.cpc.ncep....s3/euT2mMon.gif

This time last year the CFS had north Europe under deep blue for December and light blue for January!

Expect the worst to avoid disappointment me thinks...

Karyo

they are, in my view, even less reliable than the models' ability to predict rainfall decently accurately even at 24 hours-as some discovered yesterday!