Control, Mean Operational?

[muppet]

I have looked at the help sections and also the excellent pdf guide to the ensemble graphs.

many thanks for producing those.

however I could only see explanations for the mean and control.

what is the operational line please?

[Backtrack]

If you are referring to the bold green line on the GFS ensemble runs, then I think that you mean the GFS operational runs, which are the charts generated by the GFS. They can be found here:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

[Paul]

The operational line is taken from the GFS itself

[muppet]

yes, I do mean the green line on the graph.

I get the mean is the average of all the runs, the control is the line without any warm or cool adjustments but I still don't follow the green line.

sorry and thanks.

[Isolated Frost]

yes, I do mean the green line on the graph.

I get the mean is the average of all the runs, the control is the line without any warm or cool adjustments but I still don't follow the green line.

sorry and thanks.

Hi- the green line is the operational run (the one that is put out and the one that people on here will talk about)- I think this answers your problem?

[muppet]

thanks, I'm a bit of a novice.

what is it then?

ie how does it differ from control?

[bluearmy]

thanks, I'm a bit of a novice.

what is it then?

ie how does it differ from control?

muppet - the operational is run at a higher resolution than the ens runs (inc the control). in theory, it should be more accurate.

[muppet]

great that makes sense.

thanks.

what about the operational compared to the mean?

the operational is supposedly more accurate too?

[Isolated Frost]

great that makes sense.

thanks.

what about the operational compared to the mean?

the operational is supposedly more accurate too?

I'd imagine so. The mean I think is the average of every perbutrations (sic.) so i'd imagine it would need a slightly lower resolution.

[muppet]

thanks again. what do you mean by resolution?

accuracy? if so why is there a high and low res?

[Backtrack]

Yes. You will hear the phrase 'reliable time frame' a lot on Net Weather.

Basically the high resolution charts have more accuracy due to more detail. For example:

That is a high res chart. Much more data available for you to look at.

And the above is low res.

You will find that the low resolution charts are in FI (Fantasy Island). These charts are best used for spotting trends, as alone they are not very accurate.

Hope I helped.

[muppet]

ah. I see.

and the control data on the ensemble graphs are taken from low res charts.

[Backtrack]

A much better example can be found on the min/max GFS temperature charts.

The below is low resolution:

Look how scattered the temperature colours and numbers are.

The below is high res. Look how much data we can see, so many figures and colours, much more accuracy.

There are charts such as the NMM that go into much higher resolution, but they are part of Net Weather Extra and need to be paid for to view

Backtrack.

ah. I see.

and the control data on the ensemble graphs are taken from low res charts.

I'm not too hot on where the ensemble data is taken from sorry, I just know how to view the charts.

Basically the more grouped up members of that run are on the graph, the more accurate it's likely to be, due to multiple runs going for the exact same thing.

[muppet]

thanks, I'm guessing

control is low res

mean is average of low res so is low res too

operational is high res and is the one to track.

ps I have a net extra for this month

[Backtrack]

Oh cool.

Check out the NMM then, it's pretty cool. It's the highest resolution model on Net Weather

http://www.netweather.tv/secure/cgi-bin/premium.pl?action=nmm;sess=6ba7048e6273173a35bceaab316834c5

[muppet]

thanks.

with that map I don't feel as if I'm getting as accurate data.

am I?

firstly I'm eyeballing where the place is, as opposed to entering a place name and secondly its not to 1 decimal place.

or is it all about resolution?

how easy is it to make that data available in graphical and tabular form?

that would be fantastic.

also just noticed that it is not for more than a day or two, rather than 16.

[Backtrack]

thanks.

with that map I don't feel as if I'm getting as accurate data.

am I?

firstly I'm eyeballing where the place is, as opposed to entering a place name and secondly its not to 1 decimal place.

or is it all about resolution?

how easy is it to make that data available in graphical and tabular form?

that would be fantastic.

also just noticed that it is not for more than a day or two, rather than 16.

You will find that you won't get a more accurate temperature reading than what you get on that model. It's the highest resolution there is.

I'm unsure how easy it is to make the data available in graphical form, you'll have to ask Paul.

The NMM only does 3 days due to the resolution. Further out and it would become pointless, as it would be changing too often to be deemed reliable at such a high resolution. Best man to ask would be Paul.

[muppet]

thanks for your help. very kind.

I feel more clued up.

[Paul]

thanks, I'm guessing

control is low res

mean is average of low res so is low res too

operational is high res and is the one to track.

ps I have a net extra for this month

That's not quite right.

The higher resolution chart is the GFS (operational run on the graphs) and that it at 0.5 degree resolution. The rest of the data on the graphs is not from the low resolution chart that you see above as that is at 2.5 degrees and is just for the latter part of the GFS runs. (You can find more info on this here).

The ensembles are all run at 1 degree throughout (the control, mean and other lines on the graphs) - so a much higher resolution than the low res chart above.

[muppet]

thanks Paul.

and out of just the graphs, is the green line usually the most accurate?

[Weather Boy]

What is the point of having low resolution charts if they are less accurate than high res?

[muppet]

pattern spotting with low res?

trends are easier to see?

any ideas on whether the green graph line is the best to follow?