Model Output Discussion - 5th December - 11th December

[JP1972]

Thanks Phil, much appreciated.

[iceaxe]

osbourne one nil surely your last post should be deleted as it not on topic and has nothing to add to this forum yet when others post comments like that you delete them.

[Duane S.]

At the risk of posting something to do with the weather, isn't that a bit like saying when the rain stops, it looks like it might turn drier?

Indeed, Gavin D does appear to be in the same mould as PE (whatever happened to him?). ONLY posting when there are 'downgrades'. Draw your own conclustions as to why they do that.

ECM certainly strange but I don't think a wholly impossible scenario. As Bluearmy (I think it was) mentions above, if early on it doesn't interact with the very powerful jet it may slip by unoticed (although, even then, likelehood is there may be another one waiting in the wings).

Whilst I take the point about these storms often being overplayed by the models this far out, this is not like last winter's infamous storm that never was, the conditions ARE in place to make it more likely than not (unlke with the winter storm when to be fair it went against the grain) Plus... we only have to look to last Friday to see such a storm actually occuring. I think the NOGAPS is nearer the mark, the jet will keep it tracking on a more Easterly than NE path in my opinion.

[shotski]

Please delete the above post Osbourne, off topic.

edit; 2 above

Edited December 11, 2011 by shotski

[stewfox]

osbourne one nil surely your last post should be deleted as it not on topic and has nothing to add to this forum yet when others post comments like that you delete them.

It was funny though

[NorthernRab]

osbourne one nil surely your last post should be deleted as it not on topic and has nothing to add to this forum yet when others post comments like that you delete them.

Don't be daft, it's entirely relevant - he's pointing out that of course the pressure will rise after the storm.

[snow drift]

Not just this post but others this evening.

Its Sunday, that is 4 more days before we can be pretty certain of its track and intensity. To keep arguing about one run to another over 5 days out is daft. To suggest that folk cannot cancel 24 hours out IF the threat is by then from UK Met assessed, as they did with the last one, serious enough to give it a red alert, seems to me not to be an accurate relection of what folk can and will do.

Just like the last one it will be no more than 24 hours out before its track is known to within 50 miles north or south and its pressure to within 5-6mb.

Fact what Iv'e just said-interesting to read so many folks views but a touch of reality about how much models can predict such a system more than 5 days away please.

end of another jh chunter so feel free to delete admin/mods but this thread is at times more like a kiddies playground.

I'll keep out of it for a few days.

Come on John don't be like that. By the way, your it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[johnholmes]

Come on John don't be like that. By the way, your it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

sorry what does the last bit mean?

[Bolton67]

, we should then see a broad HP belt to the South , and a possibility of the hairdryer for Xmas.

Only a possibility Ian? the way you have been banging on over the last week, this was a dead cert.

Some things never change, eh, Ian.

[Liam J]

The 12z ensembles for London

After this storm passes there seems to be good agreement for a rise in pressure

God help us if it continued to fall!

[Matty M]

hey hey.

The ECM ensemble mean is quite similar to its OP!

[ukpaul]

Not just this post but others this evening.

Its Sunday, that is 4 more days before we can be pretty certain of its track and intensity. To keep arguing about one run to another over 5 days out is daft. To suggest that folk cannot cancel 24 hours out IF the threat is by then from UK Met assessed, as they did with the last one, serious enough to give it a red alert, seems to me not to be an accurate relection of what folk can and will do.

Just like the last one it will be no more than 24 hours out before its track is known to within 50 miles north or south and its pressure to within 5-6mb.

Fact what Iv'e just said-interesting to read so many folks views but a touch of reality about how much models can predict such a system more than 5 days away please.

end of another jh chunter so feel free to delete admin/mods but this thread is at times more like a kiddies playground.

I'll keep out of it for a few days.

You're right that it can't be certain this far out, we all know that, but do you really not understand the necessity to have plans in place if it appears, as the models say at the moment, to be likely?

I'm not talking about whether to take the family on a night out here I'm talking about whether an organisation plans ahead to make sure that it has options as to how to approach something days in advance.

Some people appear to only have a responsibility to themselves and good luck to them, I'd be happy if all I had to care about was myself but that luxury just isn't there for many.

Why else do people look at the weather this far ahead if not to ensure that they are clued up and ready for what may happen?

[Paul]

This is the model thread folks, can we stick to that please...

[Matty M]

Mean ECM @ 96hrs

Anyway the real critic will be the 0z ECM.

[January Snowstorm]

That looks dire Matty, a damp squib instead of a storm.

I think best guidance tonight will be the faxes and of course what the 18z does.

All in all a tireing day's model watching!!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Only a possibility Ian? the way you have been banging on over the last week, this was a dead cert.

Some things never change, eh, Ian.

positive post then by Ian's standards! even if it gets cold, the usual no snow for Staffs etc

[snow drift]

sorry what does the last bit mean?

School joke, i.e. Tag, your it etc. Second bottle of Rioja just started. Really hit me. Struggling to see the storm for Fri on ECM.

[Summer Sun]

hey hey.

The ECM ensemble mean is quite similar to its OP!

Well that's a start just need the other models to follow.

[lorenzo]

Not dropped entirely by ECM. This at 108hrs middle of the 96 to 120 transitions shown in other places.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Well what I have noticed on both GFS/ECM model runs is the impressive Siberian high that has built. If and when this comes into play we could well see a very block and cold pattern from the east/north east. I believe when the storms this week have cleared our shores we might see a possible pattern change or at least a slow down in the Atlantic train. I for one am not suprised to see the ECM output this evening. It was only last week that the GFS showed a strong Rex block over us, this was suddenly downgraded to the stormy conditions we have seen, so surely a possible switch to less stormy conditions could occur?

Edited December 11, 2011 by Grimsby Snow Lover

[Iceberg]

Ens combined runs are terrible at predicting quick moving storms 4 days out due to timing and path differences it will greatly egg them

Anybody reading this thread needs to understand that single runs are pretty meaningless and that intra run and intra model consistence is the key.

If we keep up and down grading things on individual runs or will be a long winter indeed

[bluearmy]

The ECM ens members are a mixed bag at T108. A big variation on offer with several clusters. the mean will have to represent a wide spread in this case with no one solution being shown.

at T168, still a fair appetite to build the ridge much further northeast than the op shows.

Nothing resolved but we knew that anyway.

[Matty M]

The ECM ens members are a mixed bag at T108. A big variation on offer with several clusters. the mean will have to represent a wide spread in this case with no one solution being shown.

at T168, still a fair appetite to build the ridge much further northeast than the op shows.

Nothing resolved but we knew that anyway.

Can you post that link again? The one i bookmarked is redundant and i cant find it through the ecmwf.int site

The ECM ens members are a mixed bag at T108. A big variation on offer with several clusters. the mean will have to represent a wide spread in this case with no one solution being shown.

at T168, still a fair appetite to build the ridge much further northeast than the op shows.

Nothing resolved but we knew that anyway.

Got it working.

Ye a mixed bag.

1/2 going for the full throttle. 1/4 for barely nothing 1/4 for a reasonable storm further south.

[lorenzo]

The ECM ens members are a mixed bag at T108. A big variation on offer with several clusters. the mean will have to represent a wide spread in this case with no one solution being shown.

at T168, still a fair appetite to build the ridge much further northeast than the op shows.

Nothing resolved but we knew that anyway.

Definitely a choice of outcomes BA, this one I picked as the deepest on offer to illustrate not completely dropped by the model

The link here Matty http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/catalog/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!168!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2009112700!!/

[phil nw.]

The ECM ens members are a mixed bag at T108. A big variation on offer with several clusters. the mean will have to represent a wide spread in this case with no one solution being shown.

at T168, still a fair appetite to build the ridge much further northeast than the op shows.

Nothing resolved but we knew that anyway.

Yes GEFS panels also show variations on the ridging at at T168 and the way the downstream trough is handled.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/senspanel1681.gif

A crossroads on the way forward-more Atlantic or some blocking nearby,maybe going NE later?

Got a feeling mid-latitude blocking is favourite just too much energy further North--for now.

Edited December 11, 2011 by phil n.warks.