North West England Regional Discussion Thread

[snowdrifter]

Good model agreement on a vicious storm system to track over the UK during Thursday night and Friday morning with insane wind speeds over NW England especially Cumbria.

90-100mph gusts or more possible, quite worrying looking at the charts.

Hi Liam,

Could be very 'interesting' for you looking at that if it verifies to that degree. As I mentioned before, we are due to come up to Windermere on Friday. Having seen that chart I am even more worried! Not so much the being there, which could be very similar to my location, but the getting there.

[Lancashire Lass]

The above scenario is fantasy land atm...we cant even get a frost going ..and all we are seeing from the GFS is a ridiculous outlier..pure fantasy if you ask me right now.

Currently 7.4C with yet another day hitting close to 8C.

a few light rain showers are around currently..yet another lousy boring sunday weather wise for this part of the region.

YOu maxed out at 5.8C because of the height of the temperature gauge, its not a realistic temperature that

your reporting..you should get a new temperature instrument and place it below 2m to get a very accurate

temperature, but dont put it into an enclosed space, ie a yard with 3 walls thats your best bet..coz your

temps have been way colder due to the height your recording at.

Since writing the above post, its now climbed to 8.2C, becoming quite mild in a southwesterly wind

My sensor is at Met Office height.

It's not inaccurate because both the car, and the van showed the same temperature.

It was freezing out yesterday. I don't see how you can question my readings when you're over 6 miles away. The area I live in is quite rural and open if you walk up to the top of the road.

My temperature sensor is accurate, however the one on the roof is not.

06z has downgraded it.

Instead of gusting to 90mph, it's now more like 70mph.

It's shifting the LP further North, so will probably be shifted North of Scotland by time it's in the reliable.... damn.

Is there any possible chance we can move on from this now? It's like groundhog day. There's nothing wrong with disagreeing with someone but there comes a time when you just have to leave it at that and move on.

[Liam J]

Heavy rain and thunder here, dogs going mad!

[SP1986]

is it a shower? Interesting

[Backtrack]

Can't see the storm damaging the NW too bad.

Expect major downgrades by tomorrow.

[Lancashire Lass]

Nothing here but then I live in Preston :lol: Looking at the radar there are heavy showers moving into the Region, the heaviest of which in Cumbria.

[SP1986]

Can't see the storm damaging the NW too bad.

Expect major downgrades by tomorrow.

You may be right but what are you basing that on? gut feeling?

We can only really go on what is being shown, but this storms will either having to shift well north, or not occur at all, in order not to damage the northwest.

[Backtrack]

You may be right but what are you basing that on? gut feeling?

We can only really go on what is being shown, but this storms will either having to shift well north, or not occur at all, in order not to damage the northwest.

Gut feeling, plus the jet stream.

Just looked at the jet stream charts, and I think that by looking at them the low pressure may well end up going South of the UK into the channel.

Just a hunch, but there's still time for that thing to disappear all together!

Of course it still could move North into Scotland again.

Would love a good wind storm, but gusts of 90mph are a big nono.

[SP1986]

I doubt it, I reckon what you're showing is classic symptoms of reverse psychology!

[Liam J]

I hope the storm gets downgraded over the coming days, insane charts only 4 days away.

I don't think I have ever seen wind strengths of those predicted for my area that some model runs have progged.

67mph means gusting over 90mph, are you having a laugh!

Edited December 11, 2011 by Liam J

[SP1986]

well the 2007 storm was just as bad, we actually got gusts of near 100mph here so its not unheard of. However that storm caused major major damage.

[Backtrack]

I doubt it, I reckon what you're showing is classic symptoms of reverse psychology!

Nah I really don't want 90mph gusts. Perhaps an isolated one?

[johnwirral]

All the models for Friday's storm seem to be in agreement, still looking very scary even the fax charts for Thursday so an extremely deep low out to the west.

The jet stream charts are just part of the same model output, so I can't see how a downgrade can be made by looking at them. I hope there is a downgrade as the currenlty modelled storm would cause significant damage and disruption.

[Liam J]

Meto Forecast for NW England days 3-5

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Chilly and very windy on Tuesday and Wednesday with frequent showers, these wintry over hills. More settled for a time on Thursday, although wet and stormy weather likely by evening.

Updated: 1535 on Sun 11 Dec 2011

Edited December 11, 2011 by Liam J

[SP1986]

You see, I dont buy these moralist remarks of "I dont want these winds", of course we do deep down, because thats our interest. However its understandable many people dont want damage either, but deep down we do want these winds because it offers interest. Call it irresponsible if you like, but at the end of the day, despite the moral high ground we could take, it's still interesting weather.

[Backtrack]

You see, I dont buy these moralist remarks of "I dont want these winds", of course we do deep down, because thats our interest. However its understandable many people dont want damage either, but deep down we do want these winds because it offers interest. Call it irresponsible if you like, but at the end of the day, despite the moral high ground we could take, it's still interesting weather.

Fine you caught me :lol:

I'd love them winds

[johnwirral]

I normally like high winds and used to track them for windsurfing, but this looks too scary especially for my location, On the upside we could get a new world speed record on the marine lake, someone clocked 49mph last week.

[SP1986]

49mph? wow you'd be at the other end in 20 seconds !

[johnwirral]

Yep you can race the cars on the prom, the fastest I've witnessed was 48mph. The lake starts getting a bit short and making a turn gets interesting.

The link below is useful for for wind, showing 77 knot gusts for Friday, no doubt there be a few speed sailors from around the world over here this week.

http://www.windguru....index.php?sc=99

Edited December 11, 2011 by johnwirral

[kold weather]

70-80kts looks very reasonable for quite a widespread area of the NW, especially more coastal areas, if the 12z GFS is correct. Going to need very close watching, still time for things to shift...

However for those thinking of a downgrade, don't forget we've already had one system as strong as this one roll through so its easily possible to get a 2nd!!

[Weather-history]

You see, I dont buy these moralist remarks of "I dont want these winds", of course we do deep down, because thats our interest. .

Sorry Stephen you are going to have to buy it at least from me, I don't want those winds nor a storm of that intensity. I have read accounts of lows of that intensity in historical archives and that'll do for me......

Edited December 11, 2011 by Mr_Data

[snowdrifter]

You see, I dont buy these moralist remarks of "I dont want these winds", of course we do deep down, because thats our interest. However its understandable many people dont want damage either, but deep down we do want these winds because it offers interest. Call it irresponsible if you like, but at the end of the day, despite the moral high ground we could take, it's still interesting weather.

Great post Stephen. I've been having these ambivalent conversations with my wife about travelling on Friday saying "Oh its looking like it could be quite tricky on Friday, possibly dangerous etc etc", while my internal weather voice was saying "Yippee mega-winds coming, time to go storm-chasing" and stuff like that. I think she could see the child-like excitement in my eyes despite the concerned nature of my words! I think as weather fans we all tread that thin line between excited interest and common sense .

Edited December 11, 2011 by snowdrifter

[johnwirral]

Bit off topic some video and speeds from the speed sailing at west kirby last week.

http://www.redsurfbu...tans-day-2.html

Edited December 11, 2011 by johnwirral

[SP1986]

Sorry Stephen you are going to have to buy it at least from me, I don't want those winds nor a storm of that intensity. I have read accounts of lows of that intensity in historical archives and that'll do for me......

I have been in winds of that calibre - I was outside in the January 2007 winds through no fault of my own, I know how severe winds can get. At the end of the day if you know winds of that calbre are coming just don't go out if you absolutely dont have to. The best comment I ever heard is "Accidents don't happen, they are caused" In other words if people are sensible and realistic, injuries will be avoided.

It's about common sense nothing else.

If anything happens after that, it's likely just very unlucky and unfortunate.

[La Bise]

That's rather trite nonsense Stephen, accidents do happen, that's the very definition of the word and lot of people have to be out for work, essential trips, etc and you can apply all the commonsense you want, it won't prevent a tile or a tree branch falling on you. I have no desire, hidden or otherwise to see 100mph gusts at street level.