Atlantic Storms - 13th December 2011 Onwards Part 3

[johnholmes]

Well, I think it could be very strongest winds than Monday night but this storm could might be a potential extensive for damaging gusts of wind across much of the country could affected to hit the Southern England, Northern France and the English Channel including Guernsey and Jersey later on Thursday night and into Friday early morning with a very strong extra tropical cyclone as a Category 3 or 4 hurricane on the way and take extras care with braces for yourself.

I assume you are on a wind up and I'm sure it will be noted-but thanks for the warning about 3-4 hurricane category. what are you on?

[Lt. Dan]

The worst part of these charts is it will make me continue to watch satellites and charts and waste away time!!!!!!

That the problem with being a extreme weather addict

haha, exactly why I've been glued here for days :-)

[knightrider]

We are now not much more then 24 hours away from this LP starting to make it's pressence felt in the UK and STILL they dont seem to be certain about where this 1 is going, quite concerning and slighly embarrasing for the MetO if you ask me!

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Part of me is saying stir into france PLEASEEEE and another part of me is saying OMG PLEASE COME OVER ME AND BRING THEM 80MPH GUSTS!!!

[knightrider]

I assume you are on a wind up and I'm sure it will be noted-but thanks for the warning about 3-4 hurricane category. what are you on?

He couldn't even get his words in order, he must have been drinking or something either that or his just a complete loon lol

[Matty M]

We are now not much more then 24 hours away from this LP starting to make it's pressence felt in the UK and STILL they dont seem to be certain about where this 1 is going, quite concerning and slighly embarrasing for the MetO if you ask me!

Yea quite amazing really but i wouldn't blame anyone and id say the track is 90% nailed on now give or take 50 miles

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Yea quite amazing really but i wouldn't blame anyone and id say the track is 90% nailed on now give or take 50 miles

I don't lol!!!

[Matty M]

We will now by 6am tomorrow, if the low is already developed by then and nr 990mb then i would be concerned, it is hasn't developed into anything more than a 1000mb shortwave, it should just fire up the channel.

So satellite watching from 2 to 8 am will be crucial, and guess when that is! right when we all should be sleeping!

[knightrider]

Yea quite amazing really but i wouldn't blame anyone and id say the track is 90% nailed on now give or take 50 miles

But a 50 mile change in the track to the north could make all the differance, scenario 1 would mean only Hampshire, Kent etc.. and counties in the extreme south will feel any effects if any whereas scenario 2 which is 50 maybe 100 miles swing to the north would mean London, Esssex, Hertfordshire etc.. get 80mph+ gusts

[Storm Track]

I assume you are on a wind up and I'm sure it will be noted-but thanks for the warning about 3-4 hurricane category. what are you on?

Well, I suggest you that the low pressure system of 955 mb is a very dangerous with the extreme severe weather warning but i hope you can help it.

[knightrider]

We will now by 6am tomorrow, if the low is already developed by then and nr 990mb then i would be concerned, it is hasn't developed into anything more than a 1000mb shortwave, it should just fire up the channel.

So satellite watching from 2 to 8 am will be crucial, and guess when that is! right when we all should be sleeping!

Just exactly why I said about 2 days ago that MetO should have got this all figured out then, 24 hours notice isn't always enough cause some people have to be up and out the door early for work and dont even get the chance to check the forecast in the morning or throughout the day etc.. and if people have to be up for work the next day their not going to be staying up all night watching satellite data.

[Matty M]

But a 50 mile change in the track to the north could make all the differance, scenario 1 would mean only Hampshire, Kent etc.. and counties in the extreme south will feel any effects if any whereas scenario 2 which is 50 maybe 100 miles swing to the north would mean London, Esssex, Hertfordshire etc.. get 80mph+ gusts

yep but this is exceptional situation, we live in such a volatile location, usually you'd have things down to 20-30 miles by now but i would say 90% within 50 miles for tomorrows system.

Just exactly why I said about 2 days ago that MetO should have got this all figured out then, 24 hours notice isn't always enough cause some people have to be up and out the door early for work and dont even get the chance to check the forecast in the morning or throughout the day etc.. and if people have to be up for work the next day their not going to be staying up all night watching satellite data.

If something dramatic happened overnight, MetOffice could release a bulletin from 6am and alert news stations. Although

not ideal it should be sufficient.

It's all a game of probability.

[knightrider]

Looking at the preassure chart that's on the BBC weather site in that video about probable track I cant help but be quite concerned about this 1, if those isorbars are anything to go by then somewhere over the northern half of France is looking at gusts of 100mph quite possibly so we'd just better hope it dosn't shift up 100 miles across the south of England, although if your an enthusiast of stormy winds like me then bring it on is what I say.

[Liam J]

I think some are getting a little carried away, taking of cat 3 or 4 hurricanes heading for the UK?

Models show the system moving the centre over Southern England keeping the very strongest winds over the channel and Northern France.

Edited December 14, 2011 by Liam J

[Radiating Dendrite]

Just exactly why I said about 2 days ago that MetO should have got this all figured out then, 24 hours notice isn't always enough cause some people have to be up and out the door early for work and dont even get the chance to check the forecast in the morning or throughout the day etc.. and if people have to be up for work the next day their not going to be staying up all night watching satellite data.

It is a highly complex situation. I am sureyou would be the first to criticise if they forecastedthis too early and got it wrong.

[Liam J]

Well, I suggest you that the low pressure system of 955 mb is a very dangerous with the extreme severe weather warning but i hope you can help it.

Let's keep things a bit more sensible, nothing to suggest unusually extreme weather affecting the UK from this system. the storm yesterday that affected the north had a central pressure below 950mb, severe gales did batter NW Britain but it was by no means extreme.

Low central pressure does not automatically mean very strong winds.

[knightrider]

I think some are getting a little carried away, taking of cat 3 or 4 hurricanes heading for the UK?

Models show the system moving the centre over Southern England keeping the very strongest winds over the channel and Northern France.

The guy that mentioned cat 3/4 hurricane's is just an idiot for 1 reason being we officially dont get hurricane's in the UK and it's only a once in 200 year event that we get storm of that sort of magnitude in terms of the strength of the wind, 1987 was the last time that happened so we probably should't expect to see something on a simular scale for another 160 years or so lol And I would say there's a strong possibility that England could avoid that LP all together!

It is a highly complex situation. I am sureyou would be the first to criticise if they forecastedthis too early and got it wrong.

Well sort of yes but I'd much rather they done that then forecast it too late and got it wrong lol

GFS still has nothing significant in terms of wind over my location for tommorow night or Friday.

[Liam J]

The Meto had early warnings out days ago regarding the system in question, they have changed accordingly to model data guidance but I think the public will know by now the weather could potentially be nasty come the end of the week.

Edited December 14, 2011 by Liam J

[knightrider]

The Meto had early warnings out days ago regarding the system in question, they have changed accordingly to model data guidance but I think the public will know by now the weather could potentially be nasty come the end of the week.

Seems like that nasty weather is going to be confined to a very narrow band along the south coast though, cant see places further inland getting anything major, it might turn abit blowy but nothing we havn't already seen earlier this week, of course the track could still change though.

[Storm Track]

Let's keep things a bit more sensible, nothing to suggest unusually extreme weather affecting the UK from this system. the storm yesterday that affected the north had a central pressure below 950mb, severe gales did batter NW Britain but it was by no means extreme.

Low central pressure does not automatically mean very strong winds.

Yes, but I know the low central pressure is a very strongest winds or just maybe windchill on the way or even a possible hurricane force winds. Have a wait and see to find it out what happening tomorrow night and into Friday early morning.

[knightrider]

Yes, but I know the low central pressure is a very strongest winds or just maybe windchill on the way or even a possible hurricane force winds. Have a wait and see to find it out what happening tomorrow night and into Friday early morning.

I think hurricane force winds is abit over the top my friend, we may have severe gales/ storm force gusts but genuine hurricane-force hardly ever happens in the UK. A full hurricane has sustained winds of 74mph or more not gusts just the steady wind, the gusts are normally anything upto twice that!

[PeterDoswell]

john hammond just give 70mph for tonight on south coast

[pyrotech]

The low has started to form, although according to GFS its a second area of low pressure that forms and moves rapidly towards us.

Right now its in an area of very little data, so information will be sparce for actual recording what is going on, probably most data coming from satelite and any ships in the area.

The tail of the bank buoy will asist alittle.

Until the low forms and moves very little data would be accurate, if it formed in an area slightly different to forecast then the outcome would change etc

So first area of low pressure has formed and now its a watch and wait game until we can see what it starts to do in both movement and depth.

This is the stage which will lead to Meto being spot on or having to adjust their forecast.

If the data for this stage is incorrect then the difference will become greater in time, if the data is close to forecast then things will run as forecast.

I am trying to monitor the situation and will do overnight. Nothing signifigant has occured that would imply a difference to forecast, but we are still in the early stages.

There are posts on here that new people should not take too seriously, there are others who are seasoned forecasters and have a background of meteorology.

Some to take notice of on this forum include John Holmes, Liam J, Matty, and few others, also those involved with Netweather as hosting team etc.

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What is this.."Tonight feature" all about ?? Am I missing something :S

[Marie]

john hammond just give 70mph for tonight on south coast

its very still outside tonight no rain really today either