Atlantic Storms - 13th December 2011 Onwards Part 3

[Jane Louise]

Please carry on here ..............

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Did anybody see this...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/16143615

[sparky1972]

morning all, well not sure what to make of the metoffice weather warning for my area, winds are to gust around 50 mph tonight, no warning, friday, winds around 30 mph and we are in the warning area, i guess there is still alot of uncertainty and only time will tell.

[Coast]

Morning all!!!

Well what a night along the coast. Not had a chance to check the wind-speeds etc but already encountered a lot of debris on the way into work and the local BBC radio is doing overtime on road closures due to fallen trees etc. Some of the scaffolding and wrap has come adrift on the building site next to work and their fences had collapsed into our car park. I understand a house in Bexhill had it's roof blown off, so I'm off around the web to see what info I can find.

Didn't get much sleep with the howling gales and torrential rain.

[Insert Name Here]

The met office do not seem to be playing a blinder so far....

[fedupandenglish]

Lots of bits of tree on the road on the drive in to work this morning, but nothing substantial.

[Jane Louise]

It's really dark here.The sky looks really thundery. Camera at the ready!!

[Coast]

Seems like the highest gust near me was 57 mph overnight - it sounded like more! No details on damage around the area yet, I guess that will come as the morning media wakes up.

[Harry]

Pokey squall passed through London about 15 mins ago. Skies went very black and produced one bright flash of lightning with explosive thunder, along with very squally winds and v heavy rain. Currently some nice mammatus hanging from the back edge

As for last night, was certainly very wet and windy in N Kent!!

[johnholmes]

see my post in the model thread regarding current Fax charts and text forecasts from UK Met along with models at T+48 and 73!

[Harry]

Pokey squall passed through London about 15 mins ago. Skies went very black and produced one bright flash of lightning with explosive thunder, along with very squally winds and v heavy rain. Currently some nice mammatus hanging from the back edge

As for last night, was certainly very wet and windy in N Kent!!

[Liam J]

The met office do not seem to be playing a blinder so far....

They have early warnings for Thurs/Friday which I can't see happening now and yet no warnings for today with storm force winds set to affect the NW forecasting gusts of 78mph here later.

[Coast]

So after the hors d'oeuvre of last night, what can we expect today?

ESTOFEX say:

Storm Forecast

Valid: Tue 13 Dec 2011 06:00 to Wed 14 Dec 2011 06:00 UTC

Issued: Mon 12 Dec 2011 21:42

Forecaster: KOROSEC

A level 1 was issued for parts of northern UK mainly for severe winds.

A level 1 was issued for N France, Benelux and NW Germany mainly for severe wind gusts and lesser extent for tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS

A large trough remains dominant feature across much of Europe. The main focus of interest is a rapidly developing surface cyclogenesis developing NW of UK moving east and affecting Scotland. Associated with this low, a cold front moves from the North Sea east across the central Europe. Another short-wave trough crosses Adriatic sea into S Balkans while transforming into an upper low.

DISCUSSION

... western Europe including N UK, Benelux, N France and NE Germany ...

Activity today will be connected to the strong surface cyclone forming on early Tuesday NW of UK and moving east across Scotland during the forecast period. It is characterized by very intense jet, providing strong shear across the broad area. The southern threat level area over Benelux and NW Germany will be affected by the cold front passage. Some uncertainities exist, but it seems possible that some convection might form along the moving front. Those storms could result in strong to severe winds given the very strong wind field and shear at all levels. However, impressive shear at lowest levels might also support a funnel/tornado there.

The northern UK was also put into level 1 threat as these areas will be affected by the strong surface low moving nearby. Expect strong to severe wind gusts as well, which could result in some wind damage. However, winds will mostly be non-convective while some weakly electrifies convection is possible within the polar airmass. As well as across the other highlighted lightning areas

TORRO say:

A TORNADO WATCH has been updated at 21:20GMT on Monday December 12 2011

NOTE TIMING OF TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN BROUGHT FORWARD DUE TO LINE CONVECTION ALONG FIRST COLD FRONT IN SW ENGLAND

Valid from/until: 21:20 - 08:00GMT on Monday December 12/Tuesday December 13 2011, for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Eire:

Parts of (see map) S Wales S Midlands E Anglia S England Channel Is

THREATS

Tornadoes; wind gusts to 65-70mph

SYNOPSIS (for WATCH and DISCUSSION)

An intense Atlantic low will push a well-marked frontal system across the British Isles tonight. A powerful jetstream and pronounced dry intrusion aloft will cause the cold front to become a split feature. Strong southerly winds ahead of the cold front will transport fairly moist air across many areas, especially across southern parts.

The dry intrusion is being marked by sferics to the west of Scotland. These thunderstorms may accompany the surface front into western Scotland, along with some very gusty winds. For areas away from southern England overnight, very gusty winds of 60-65mph, along with isolated tornadoes, may accompany the cold front - this risk is covered by the CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION (BELOW).

For southern parts of the UK, as the surface front becomes somewhat more parallel to the mean tropospheric flow, it looks likely that several waves may run along it overnight. This may instigate LEWP-type features. Higher-res models suggest -ve Lifted Indices at 700 mb for a surface parcel. It may be that one or more surface troughs follows the front too.

The low-level buoyancy, coupled with strong veering low-level flow INVOF any waves which may develop, look like enhancing the tornado potential. There is the chance of a fairly strong tornado or two, should LEWP develop.

Forecaster: RPK

and SkyWarn:

SKYWARN UK SEVERE WEATHER WATCH #069

ISSUED: 0200UTC TUESDAY 13TH DECEMBER 2011 (GJ)

SKYWARN UK HAS ISSUED A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING REGIONS:

SCOTLAND NORTHERN IRELAND NORTHERN ENGLAND

IN EFFECT FROM 1200UTC TUESDAY 13TH UNTIL 0900UTC WEDNESDAY 14TH DECEMBER 2011

DEEP ATLANTIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MATURING AS IT CROSSES SCOTLAND, BRINGING SEVERE GALE POTENTIAL

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER AFFECTING THE INDICATED REGIONS IN THE TIME PERIOD SPECIFIED. THREATS WITHIN THIS WATCH INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO: SEVERE GALES...STRONG GUSTS...HEAVY RAIN...BLIZZARDS...LOCALISED FLOODING OR GROUND DISPLACEMENT

DISCUSSION:

THERE IS MODERATE MODEL CONFIDENCE ON THE EVOLUTION OF A DEEP LOW SYSTEM, WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. A SUB-950MB LOW CENTRE ALREADY DEVELOPED TO THE WEST DEEPENS SLIGHTLY AS IT ARRIVES AT WESTERN SCOTLAND, THEREAFTER BROADENING AND FILLING. AN OCCLUDED WRAPPING RAINBAND DEVELOPS BRINGING MEAN WIND SPEEDS OF UP TO A MAXIMUM OF 60MPH WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 70MPH TO THE WATCH AREAS. PRINCIPALLY THE WESTERN ISLES, THE NORTH COAST OF NORTHERN IRELAND AND HIGH GROUND AREAS OF NORTHERN ENGLAND. STRONG OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT MAY SEE PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 60MM IN A SHORT TIME DURING TUESDAY, ONTO ALREADY SATURATED AND DESTABILISED GROUND GENERATING POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES IN STEEP AREAS. LOCATIONS HIGHER THAN 100M ASL MAY SEE PRECIPITATION TURN TO SNOW, CREATING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS REDUCING VISIBILITY, WITH AS MUCH AS 10CM ACCUMULATING OVER EVEN HIGHER GROUND. LATER ON TUESDAY AND OVERNIGHT, WINDS OVER EASTERN PARTS OF SCOTLAND AND NORTHERN ENGLAND MAY EXCEED 70MPH IN STRONG GUSTS. THIS WATCH RUNS CONCURRENTLY WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #068. THIS WATCH MAY BE UPDATED OR UPGRADED.

[PurpleButterfly]

What a wild night! Was lovely listening to the wind all night.

Was very dark here this morning with a nice big bright moon!

Can't see any 'damage' yet outside. Will be doing the school run shortly so will get a good look around. The wind did move things about in my garden, but nothing to bad

What will it be like towards the end of the week? Are things still looking bad for the south east? I will look at the charts when I get home later.

[Insert Name Here]

They have early warnings for Thurs/Friday which I can't see happening now and yet no warnings for today with storm force winds set to affect the NW forecasting gusts of 78mph here later.

No wind warnings anywhere in the UK until Thursday and yet their maps have 66mph gusts forecast for me later today. Does not compute.

[Snowman15]

I find it quite amusing how people are so negative and getting annoyed all the time so early before each event throughout the year when the event is days away!! until the day, you can't predict or know anything for definite! - Just sit back, chill and stop getting worked up! wait til at least Thursday!

Anyway, some hefty showers passing through now and the temperature is actually dropping down to 6.6c now from 7.5c a hour ago.

[Buzzard]

Note to self - on your usual run to the station, try not to run through a squall line..

Did this about 6.50am this morning, bad idea. Currently drying clothes off at work in London!

[Coast]

What will it be like towards the end of the week? Are things still looking bad for the south east? I will look at the charts when I get home later.

I wasn't going to do this three days out, but here's a snapshot of the atmosphere by GFS and the peak for Friday is still very much there for London, just over a shorter timescale. This graphic picked up last nights gale and rain quite well so I have a bit of confidence in it at this point of it being equal, or slightly more of an event in comparison to last night. BUT, there is still time for change and things will not firm up until a few hours beforehand - so don't shoot me if it all goes awry.

Here's Manchester:

Aberdeen:

I'll have a look at a few others for some FI type indicators (with the usual comments applying!)

[Mike Storm]

^^ max Gust last night for me and my roof mounted Vantage Vue was 34 knots (39mph) at 0435am.. pressure went down to 984mb but has since recovered to 989mb had a heavy shower about 745am which made the streetlights come back on... dry and sunny now with blue skys

[Raidan]

Thunder lightning hail gustsy winds the shabang here!

[Wilxy]

Just had an almightly hail storm here its all over the grass roads everything looks lovely

Sleeting now and just heard big bang of thunder!

[Coast]

A few thoughts for Friday based on current GFS output:

[Zenarcher]

Very stormy morning here gusts over 60mph and schools, shops are closing. Pressure currently at 955mb.

[Raidan]

Totally agree Tony,massive bang of thunder here to.

[tinybill]

all i say is i just hope the met office dont mess up we all know what happened when the great storm hit the south and east and this one looking very very nasty at the moment

Edited December 13, 2011 by tinybill