Atlantic Storms - 13th December 2011 Onwards Part 3

[chionomaniac]

awful lot of people going to be very disappointed i reckon (assuming they love the weather being a bit mental) cant see there being much in this for us.

Hi Frankie, welcome to the forum - don't write it off just yet!!

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

Strange thread this over the past 24 hours. Reams and reams of conjecture about what actually looks like being a complete non-event for almost the whole of the UK, (and nothing much even for the tiny section of the far south of the UK that *might* be affected) this Friday, and yet this evening there appears to be a quite significant 'event' unfolding 600 miles further north which seems to have barely got a mention ?:

[Coast]

awful lot of people going to be very disappointed i reckon (assuming they love the weather being a bit mental) cant see there being much in this for us.

Hi Frankie and welcome! Can you pop your location in your profile for us please?

I'm prepared to be disappointed, as what's currently on offer to those on the other side of the Channel is quite substantial.

Strange thread this over the past 24 hours. Reams and reams of conjecture about what actually looks like being a complete non-event for almost the whole of the UK, (and nothing much even for the tiny section of the far south of the UK that *might* be affected) this Friday, and yet this evening there appears to be a quite significant 'event' unfolding 600 miles further north which seems to have barely got a mention ?:

Too much looking to our South later this week maybe and this has slipped us by? Good call though P 10ft D

[pyrotech]

awful lot of people going to be very disappointed i reckon (assuming they love the weather being a bit mental) cant see there being much in this for us.

Why do you say that?

GFS makes adjustments towards what Meto are forecasting

NAE shows same

One hell of alot of rain and gales as minimum for South UK

Then possibility of some snow for those further North as it cut through.

Plus we are 60 hours out and all to play for

The models always flicker and keep us on our toes, without that we would have nothing to discuss if they always got it 100% right

Welcome to one of the most complex science in the world

[chionomaniac]

Strange thread this over the past 24 hours. Reams and reams of conjecture about what actually looks like being a complete non-event for almost the whole of the UK, (and nothing much even for the tiny section of the far south of the UK that *might* be affected) this Friday, and yet this evening there appears to be a quite significant 'event' unfolding 600 miles further north which seems to have barely got a mention ?:

There's not more people getting chucked off trains is there?

Only joking!

I think most of the Scot's are hibernating in their own thread otherwise we would have more chat in this general thread.

[Coast]

Welcome to one of the most complex science in the world

Or in my case, the biggest guessing game in the World

[WaitingForMackerel]

I am keeping a close eye on that pulse of wind that moves over the south west at about 6-9pm tomorrow evening. This latest gfs run has moved it slightly north, this change seems to bring it more into line with what the met have forcast for tomorrow. As it stands gfs will have the section of low wind speed going over my head, but a small shift northwards will make a massive difference.

Today has been pretty uneventful, not much rain, just howling 40mph westerlies with the odd half hour howling at 50+mph, not very gusty either, 10mph difference between mean and gust.

[pyrotech]

Thats the problem with the Weather here in UK

For some this has been a nothing kind of day

Where as in Southeast early hours that had some gales

Here in Southwest we had thunder , lighning and hail storms

High elevations in West had some Snow

Others just a breezy day

Same will probably be for Friday, some will get some excitement others will get nothing.

Who gets what and when thou?

Potency of jet stream massively increased on GFS for next week so more chance of exciting weather into Fi

Edited December 13, 2011 by pyrotech

[frankie01]

only say that because someone needs to.This is getting way way overhyped.Always the same though, one bit of possible bad weather or weather extreme and it goes off on one on here.Ive followed it for years,never registered, but have now! thanks for the welcomes.Even if there was any snow itll be gone almost as quickly as it arrived.

Still theres a massive part of me that hopes im totally wrong haha! Im a pessimist what can i say!!!

[NickR]

Strange thread this over the past 24 hours. Reams and reams of conjecture about what actually looks like being a complete non-event for almost the whole of the UK, (and nothing much even for the tiny section of the far south of the UK that *might* be affected) this Friday, and yet this evening there appears to be a quite significant 'event' unfolding 600 miles further north which seems to have barely got a mention ?:

Well, the non-event might hit the south; the actual event here and now affects the north... go figure. <_<

Edited December 13, 2011 by NickR

[lucida]

hi all!! hoping some one with experience may be able to help!! taking my children from london to eurodisney on thursday, is this storm likely to have a big impact to us on friday many thanks for any answers !!

[Gorath]

Strange thread this over the past 24 hours. Reams and reams of conjecture about what actually looks like being a complete non-event for almost the whole of the UK, (and nothing much even for the tiny section of the far south of the UK that *might* be affected) this Friday, and yet this evening there appears to be a quite significant 'event' unfolding 600 miles further north which seems to have barely got a mention ?:

Geenrland high? oooh yeah!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

I think the North of France and Southern England have a nasty surprise coming up...The north and Midlands have got the snow to deal with...

[Upgrade]

Well, the non-event might hit the south; the actual event here and now affects the north... go figure. <_<

it's all about the journey as well as the destination with these "events" on this board....

[Gorath]

hi all!! hoping some one with experience may be able to help!! taking my children from london to eurodisney on thursday, is this storm likely to have a big impact to us on friday many thanks for any answers !!

I'm just a novice at this, but I suspect you'd be better off waiting until Wednesday night to see what the weather is going to be like. There's just too many unknowns at the moment.

It may turn out to be the storm of the decade, or it may turn out to be nothing.

[pyrotech]

only say that because someone needs to.This is getting way way overhyped.Always the same though, one bit of possible bad weather or weather extreme and it goes off on one on here.Ive followed it for years,never registered, but have now! thanks for the welcomes.Even if there was any snow itll be gone almost as quickly as it arrived.

Still theres a massive part of me that hopes im totally wrong haha! Im a pessimist what can i say!!!

Glass should always be half full

Lets take a look at the Meto handling of this storm

They needed to do 3 things

identify any potential hazzard in their forecast (MRF)

That was the developing Low, The potent Jet stream, and likely track

Then identify any potential Risk

This was that it would move East and probably North and intensify.

So could effect UK and be damaging / dangerous

Now having identified the hazzard and risk they need to take control measures to elliminate these hazzards and risks to the public.

So they put out early warnings of possible severe weather

Now people have attention drawn on this system and they can re evaluate the hazzard and risk as the situation changes

It now becomes dynamic risk assessment and analytical risk assessment as the timeframe approaches.

I do not see this as hype , i see it as a fantastic management for a situation so that public is informed and kept safe.

In 1987 the storm was forecast in early hours prior to storm when no one saw the warnings. Under hyped???

[JamesC]

hi all!! hoping some one with experience may be able to help!! taking my children from london to eurodisney on thursday, is this storm likely to have a big impact to us on friday many thanks for any answers !!

At present yes. The models are showing the worst winds to be in northern france........mostly, so this will include Paris. I would'nt want to go on any large rollercoasters if I were you. Of course the models can and most probably will change, I'm expecting the LP to shift further north, perhaps 100 miles. So this should aleviate Paris a bit. Not looking great tho.

Hope this helps.

[Coast]

I would'nt want to go on any large rollercoasters if I were you.

Not that they would let you in that circumstance anyway! Currently looking very windy and wet, but I'm afraid it is down to the later hours of Thursday to start getting any degree of certainty. Try and log back here for a better view nearer the time - sorry!

[Jane Louise]

Can we pleeasee keep on topic for those who may wander off. . It's still only Tuesday, remember! Let's wait until we get nearer to the time.

Thanks

[lucida]

thanks all for your prompt replies!!

Edited December 13, 2011 by lucida

[Insert Name Here]

awful lot of people going to be very disappointed i reckon (assuming they love the weather being a bit mental) cant see there being much in this for us.

Its being quite mental enough for me right now and I wouldnt be disappointed if it stopped . 62mph gusts in Prestwick right now and im 190m asl above it .. jeepers.

[pyrotech]

Or in my case, the biggest guessing game in the World

Well yes it is for most of us, this one certainly has us guessing

[frankie01]

Glass should always be half full

Lets take a look at the Meto handling of this storm

They needed to do 3 things

identify any potential hazzard in their forecast (MRF)

That was the developing Low, The potent Jet stream, and likely track

Then identify any potential Risk

This was that it would move East and probably North and intensify.

So could effect UK and be damaging / dangerous

Now having identified the hazzard and risk they need to take control measures to elliminate these hazzards and risks to the public.

So they put out early warnings of possible severe weather

Now people have attention drawn on this system and they can re evaluate the hazzard and risk as the situation changes

It now becomes dynamic risk assessment and analytical risk assessment as the timeframe approaches.

I do not see this as hype , i see it as a fantastic management for a situation so that public is informed and kept safe.

In 1987 the storm was forecast in early hours prior to storm when no one saw the warnings. Under hyped???

each to their own i guess.I think a days warning of an incoming storm is plenty. 4-5 days prior to the event is just waint for a fall frankly.I can see your point and its nice to be informed but its not really necessary this far out.

[Liam J]

Extremely windy here, gusting around 70mph, max gust 72mph and mean speeds 50-53mph

[Insert Name Here]

Strange thread this over the past 24 hours. Reams and reams of conjecture about what actually looks like being a complete non-event for almost the whole of the UK, (and nothing much even for the tiny section of the far south of the UK that *might* be affected) this Friday, and yet this evening there appears to be a quite significant 'event' unfolding 600 miles further north which seems to have barely got a mention ?:

couldnt agree more ... its as bad tonight as it was last week where I am at the moment ..