Atlantic Storms - 13th December 2011 Onwards Part 3

[frankie01]

couldnt agree more ... its as bad tonight as it was last week where I am at the moment ..

have to say tonight is looking more significant than the possible should it shift 3-400 miles north event of friday

[Gorath]

didn't he mean 600 miles north of the "non-event for almost the whole of the UK"?

[knightrider]

Alot of the models seem to suggest that Thursday/Friday's storm will stay south of the UK and effect France but a few are saying the south of England could get a battering particularly during Thursday night guess we'll just have to keep an eye out for updated warnings whether they be downgraded or upgraded, as for last night meh damp squib lots of rain and some squally gusts of about 45-50mph but nothing unusual and not enough to cause any significant damage!

[johnholmes]

no Met O model output for 12z yet so the pdf is going to be a bit late as I need it to do a direct comparison for the models

[mardatha]

Agree with INH, this is worse than Thurs for me, really hellish winds up here and snowing now. Scarey how strong the gusts are and the noise it makes as it hammers into the windows. Fire roaring, chimney howling and whistling and roof creaking.

Edited December 13, 2011 by mardatha

[Insert Name Here]

Its like deja vu ---- http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-16162338

[pyrotech]

didn't he mean 600 miles north of the "non-event for almost the whole of the UK"?

You tell the people who get their homes flooded just before christmas that its a non event.

If its a non event for you , perhaps you should count yourself lucky.

Exciting weather is all well and good, the storm appears to be less likely at this time to give stormforce winds over a widespread area.

The flood risk has increased thou, still signifigant event forecast. Infact likely to give torrential rain for longer.

The storm is still on track to effect the UK , but possibly in different way than originally thought.

[The PIT]

Well what a nice day it's been. Walked home most of the way light winds until I got home so either it got up just when I arrived home or it's a high level wind. Checking the graphs that seems to be the case. Now dropped from 25 mph average to 22 mph. Highest gust 45 mph so nothing remarkable.

Fridays low GFS keeps it well south while the ECM doesn't even bother developing it much. Perhaps we will get an unexpected snow event.

[knightrider]

I'd rather have stormy winds then just some rain we get rain all the time, nothing new there lol

[Coast]

Just to show how uncertain things are, I am going to repost the video link to the BBC update so we can all understand what difficulties there are in pinning this potential down:

http://www.bbc.co.uk...atures/16165125

Please take 10 mins to view it if you haven't already and see what the professionals are saying.

[Upgrade]

each to their own i guess.I think a days warning of an incoming storm is plenty. 4-5 days prior to the event is just waint for a fall frankly.I can see your point and its nice to be informed but its not really necessary this far out.

Yes, to start warning from Saturday about a potent storm a week away is asking for trouble and the Met will have egg on their face if it doesnt happen.

Just to show how uncertain things are, I am going to repost the video link to the BBC update so we can all understand what difficulties there are in pinning this potential down:

http://www.bbc.co.uk...atures/16165125

Please take 10 mins to view it if you haven't already and see what the professionals are saying.

the backtracking begins.....expectation management i feel - they realise they have boobed.

[Coast]

they realise they have boobed.

Surely that would only be the case after any event (or non) and I would say caution is better than not bringing peoples attention to the possibility? I see no 'backtraking' but then I'm not a Governmental department with the responsibility of millions of peoples wellbeing at stake.

Easy to comment from the comfort of our armchairs.........

[Insert Name Here]

Hmm ... makes you wonder if anybody really has a clue in the met office ivory towers .... last week was just as bad as this and at the time I was under a met office red alert ... today im under a yellow alert for snow and none whatsoever for wind .... pfft.

[Harry]

Yes, to start warning from Saturday about a potent storm a week away is asking for trouble and the Met will have egg on their face if it doesnt happen. the backtracking begins.....expectation management i feel - they realise they have boobed.

Or......just maybe....they've been right all along and S England is going to be subjected to torrential rain and storm/hurricane force winds....?????

The reality is we don't know what will unfold...but when charts have been (and some continue to do so) indicating the potential for borderline destructive weather, it would be outright negligent for the MetO and other forecasters to say nothing on the off chance their forecast requires downgrading!!

I appreciate its disappointing - but nevertheless the MetO were right to issue the warnings they have!

[mardatha]

Me too INH This one is scarey, Thurs was manageable.

Edited December 13, 2011 by mardatha

[Upgrade]

Hmm ... makes you wonder if anybody really has a clue in the met office ivory towers .... last week was just as bad as this and at the time I was under a met office red alert ... today im under a yellow alert for snow and none whatsoever for wind .... pfft.

I've noticed over many years that it is often the very long-hyped weather events (like this coming Friday's mega storm) that end up being forecasting failures, whereas many severe events aren't forecast well/ only picked up on at the last minute.

it's like they can't see the wood for the trees sometimes!

[Stormyking]

Woww just had some mental hail, along with some wild winds with each shower that passes by, flash of ligthning has been spotted a couple of times today, saw a flash earlier

[knightrider]

Just to show how uncertain things are, I am going to repost the video link to the BBC update so we can all understand what difficulties there are in pinning this potential down:

http://www.bbc.co.uk...atures/16165125

Please take 10 mins to view it if you haven't already and see what the professionals are saying.

That's exactly how the Great Storm of 1987 developed with cold and warm air meeting, that was very difficult to pin down and it would appear the MetO arn't much more sure of where this 1 is going to end up, if they havn't nailed it down 24 hours before hand then they need to take a long hard look at themselves because some people can go more then 24 hours without watching tv or litsening to radio broadcasts so the public need at least 24 hours advanced warning! It could move down the channel and bring the strongest winds to France and mainland Europe or it could race right across the centre of the UK bringing the severe winds across the southern half of England and Wales.

[Harry]

it's like they can't see the wood for the trees sometimes!

There's a good reason for that....THEY CAN'T!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Thursday/Friday's storm hasn't even developed yet, the seedling has not even arrived at the Atlantic....seeing the wood for the trees, you can't even see the thing on satellite!

[Liam J]

This wind is crazy, the roar is unreal and the roof sounds like it did last week with a load of dominos flapping about!

Can't use the front door the wind is far to strong.

Edited December 13, 2011 by Liam J

[Harry]

That's exactly how the Great Storm of 1987 developed with cold and warm air meeting, that was very difficult to pin down and it would appear the MetO arn't much more sure of where this 1 is going to end up, if they havn't nailed it down 24 hours before hand then they need to take a long hard look at themselves because some people can go more then 24 hours without watching tv or litsening to radio broadcasts so the public need at least 24 hours advanced warning! It could move down the channel and bring the strongest winds to France and mainland Europe or it could race right across the centre of the UK bringing the severe winds across the southern half of England and Wales.

Indeed, which is why the 'watch' has long been issued and the BBC et al have been covering it in their forecasts!

[Coast]

OK, can we get back on topic and quit the MetO bashing as I suspect they have a better handle on things than any of us do, but choose when to release the info, for public safety.

Comments about the accuracy of any warnings or forecasts can come after Friday when we all know what happened or didn't. Thanks!

[aggy]

couldnt agree more ... its as bad tonight as it was last week where I am at the moment ..

agreed

[mardatha]

Sting Jet, I'm over 900ft here, been here over 30 years, and this is one of or THE worst storms I can remember. I enjoy nature doing her stuff but tonight I'm verging on the being scared . Either the windows will come in or the roof will go , am sure of it!

[Paul Sherman]

Just to show how uncertain things are, I am going to repost the video link to the BBC update so we can all understand what difficulties there are in pinning this potential down:

http://www.bbc.co.uk...atures/16165125

Please take 10 mins to view it if you haven't already and see what the professionals are saying.

Lol

Love it

"One thing that is Certain is the Uncertainty of the Situation"

In other words FI Is at T24-T36 With this system, or they have almost no weather data in the area this Low Pressure is going to spawn from.

Nothing to see here.......................come back Tomorrow Night :rofl: