Atlantic Storms - 13th December 2011 Onwards Part 3

[Upgrade]

weather forecast on BBC news channel just highlighted uncertainty over Friday, but the latest Met Office charts show Friday's low sliding even further to the south of the UK than GFS. Looks like tomorrow will see final confirmation that the event has been downgraded to one of heavy rain and a mere breeze.

[knightrider]

I've noticed over many years that it is often the very long-hyped weather events (like this coming Friday's mega storm) that end up being forecasting failures, whereas many severe events aren't forecast well/ only picked up on at the last minute.

it's like they can't see the wood for the trees sometimes!

LOL so true I remember about 5 years ago there where warnings for a storm over SE & London with 80mph gusts forecast 4 days in advance of its due arrival and absolutely nothing happened. God help the MetO if we ever had hurricane's like in America, how comes they can accurately predict hurricane's about 5 days in advance and are normally spot on whereas with MetO they sit on the fence until the last minute before finalising their data.

[Harry]

Well, this is GFS 12z

This was GFS 06z

This is just one model!!!!

Tomorrow will reveal more

[Coast]

Nothing to see here.......................come back Tomorrow Night :rofl:

Thank you for that Mr S, nice of you to join us!

[Harry]

weather forecast on BBC news channel just highlighted uncertainty over Friday, but the latest Met Office charts show Friday's low sliding even further to the south of the UK than GFS. Looks like tomorrow will see final confirmation that the event has been downgraded to one of heavy rain and a mere breeze.

Yeah, that's using the UKMO model!

[Coast]

God help the MetO if we ever had hurricane's like in America, how comes they can accurately predict hurricane's about 5 days in advance and are normally spot on whereas with MetO they sit on the fence until the last minute before finalising their data.

Erm for that very reason, they happen all the time and are far more predictable in their atmospheric setup. We are a maritime Island at the mercy of several different wind flows and the jet. Anyway, back to the Atlantic storms

[Robbie Garrett]

Or......just maybe....they've been right all along and S England is going to be subjected to torrential rain and storm/hurricane force winds....?????

The reality is we don't know what will unfold...but when charts have been (and some continue to do so) indicating the potential for borderline destructive weather, it would be outright negligent for the MetO and other forecasters to say nothing on the off chance their forecast requires downgrading!!

I appreciate its disappointing - but nevertheless the MetO were right to issue the warnings they have!

Sometimes I love you, especially your replies. But I think I've said this many times before lol! Harry's back!!!

I was reading a document on the internet regarding the 1987 storm, and the potential damage of a storm in 2007 would be in the region of £4 billion and £7 billion, after inflation and the biggest poxy recession ever - the damage if we have another 1987 is probably £10 billion +??

Talking of which, since the 02 storm many new buildings in London have gone up, are they up for the task of winds such as this? Most are potentially a lot higher than the previous, i.e the shard.

Regarding the MetOffice, they have every right to issue the yellow warning so far out, simply because if they removed it now and the most densely populate areas of Europe are flattened, I think what we have to remember with this storm, is that if it comes off - i.e BBC scenario 1, the South East of England and Northern France is going to be like a bomb has hit it come Saturday Morning.

[knightrider]

Erm for that very reason, they happen all the time and are far more predictable in their atmospheric setup. We are a maritime Island at the mercy of several different wind flows and the jet. Anyway, back to the Atlantic storms

Or our weather predicting technology is just crap and totally outdated compared with theirs?

[helen of the north]

948.7mb and steady here at thurso/scrabster. Blowy.

[knightrider]

Sometimes I love you, especially your replies. But I think I've said this many times before lol! Harry's back!!!

I was reading a document on the internet regarding the 1987 storm, and the potential damage of a storm in 2007 would be in the region of £4 billion and £7 billion, after inflation and the biggest poxy recession ever - the damage if we have another 1987 is probably £10 billion +??

Talking of which, since the 02 storm many new buildings in London have gone up, are they up for the task of winds such as this? Most are potentially a lot higher than the previous, i.e the shard.

Regarding the MetOffice, they have every right to issue the yellow warning so far out, simply because if they removed it now and the most densely populate areas of Europe are flattened, I think what we have to remember with this storm, is that if it comes off - i.e BBC scenario 1, the South East of England and Northern France is going to be like a bomb has hit it come Saturday Morning.

A big if I think!

[pyrotech]

Surely that would only be the case after any event (or non) and I would say caution is better than not bringing peoples attention to the possibility? I see no 'backtraking' but then I'm not a Governmental department with the responsibility of millions of peoples wellbeing at stake.

Easy to comment from the comfort of our armchairs.........

Can always rely on you to bring some sense to the discussion, but i think with some members (upgrade) etc its like banging your head on a brick wall as they have a very poor understanding of the Meto and complex science of Meteorology. All the models showed this storm a few days ago, infact for such a vicious forecast i was quite surprised at the similarity all the big models had. Its still a vicious system, An awful lot of percipitation, and severe gales, only thing really in question is exact track. Obviously if it moves North more UK effected by rainfall which could be extreme (100mm +) and further North then not only is it likely to go deeper, but also any increase will also effect more UK areas.

This is likely to be a storm which we watch approach for last few hours before its track fully understood. I will be watching Buoy reports on its approach, along with Satelite images and weather radar.

I think if no one gets their homes flooded from this we would have been very lucky, and the misery that flooding causes is often as bad in a storm than any wind issues. Its very unpleasant so lets be careful what we wish for.

[johnholmes]

sod it the pdf file seems to be too big, > 4mb to upload so I'll have to muck about with it.

A big if I think!

k I hope WHEN I can eventually upload the pdf file you may understand a bit more of the immense complexity of this situation

[lorenzo]

IMO this event today is much more full on for my location than the unfortunately titled visitor last Thursday, a real washing machine of a storm out there.

We are still here but hidden under this mess at present !

[pyrotech]

LOL so true I remember about 5 years ago there where warnings for a storm over SE & London with 80mph gusts forecast 4 days in advance of its due arrival and absolutely nothing happened. God help the MetO if we ever had hurricane's like in America, how comes they can accurately predict hurricane's about 5 days in advance and are normally spot on whereas with MetO they sit on the fence until the last minute before finalising their data.

They don't, have you not seen the cones of uncertainty in hurricane forecasting. Its much wider than the uncertainty in this storm.

Plus after a hurricane forms near the convergence zone it moves into an area where upper level winds are less potent than our jet stream. Even then the upper winds can rip the top off a hurricane and downgrade it quickly.

When you look a coast of USA with watches and warnings compare the size of UK against it. Look at model tracks for 5 days for hurricanes, they can be 1000's mile apart at times.

Our Meto are amongst the very best, if you knew anything about the science you would know why i say that.

[knightrider]

sod it the pdf file seems to be too big, > 4mb to upload so I'll have to muck about with it.

k I hope WHEN I can eventually upload the pdf file you may understand a bit more of the immense complexity of this situation

Well all the latest BBC forecasts suggest that their less confident that this is going to effect the UK now, most of the rain and strong winds appear to be out in the channel and over France so we might and I repeat MIGHT just miss it getting a windy day with some rain but nothing out of the ordinary!

[johnholmes]

still no joy-I'll try and do it in 2 parts!

[Insert Name Here]

sod it the pdf file seems to be too big, > 4mb to upload so I'll have to muck about with it.

k I hope WHEN I can eventually upload the pdf file you may understand a bit more of the immense complexity of this situation

Cant wait to read this but I probably wont understand it.

John, if you want to mail it to me I will put it on one of my websites for folks to grab if that makes life any easier..?

[chris78]

Meto bashing is totally ridiculous

1) They have always stated lots of uncertainty about the storm on Friday, if you got exited thats your problem.

2) weather forecasting as a science is in its infancy, if you cant cope with that get another hobby or become a meteorologist and sort it out.

3) the guy who compared it to US hurricane forecast a) comparing apples and pears B) they dont predict with great accuracy four days out at all

4) all this rubbish about them not saying this or that as it causes panic....grow up....they provide info as they see it at the time (and normally point out uncertainty), its up to us to respond to it, the meto is not your mum.

anyway dont worry there will be another major 'event' in F1 for you to get all exited about soon.....

[johnholmes]

part 2

thur-fri storm part 2.pdf

who chuffing ray!

all in 1 this time-I think!

Edited December 13, 2011 by johnholmes

[Soaring Hawk]

Erm for that very reason, they happen all the time and are far more predictable in their atmospheric setup. We are a maritime Island at the mercy of several different wind flows and the jet. Anyway, back to the Atlantic storms

Or our weather predicting technology is just crap and totally outdated compared with theirs?

Oh for goodness sake... this is as stupid as it is insulting. Presumably Coast's voice of reason is just an excuse for even more childish aggression? Of course the technology is neither 'rubbish' nor outdated. The UK is a small island, the jet is being squeezed between exceptionally cold and warm air and is travelling at around 200 mph. All this does not need to be taken into account when tracking hurricanes. The Americans would be just as unsure at this stage if they had to deal with all of the volatility the models and the Met Office are struggling with.

[knightrider]

May I remind people this pottencial storm is now just over 48 hours away from making it's pressence felt on our shores so MetO have about 36 hours to pin this down or they'll be left feeling guilty that they didn't upgrade or finalise thier warnings!

[johnholmes]

Cant wait to read this but I probably wont understand it.

John, if you want to mail it to me I will put it on one of my websites for folks to grab if that makes life any easier..?

ta for that I'll try-as with any of my posts its in English not techno speak!

[gottolovethisweather]

Just a thought, I alway believed in the saying FOREWARNED is FOREARMED. It's gone down in folkfore as a saying to remember.

Also, if the MetO are changing focus from day to day it means NOTHING is nailed, that was always to be the case right up until t+24.

They are a government organisation whose priorities are keeping the general public informed and are in general fully qualified meteorological scientists, not SCIENTISTS. If any of us mere mortals believe we could have done a better job (actually the STORM hasn't arrived yet?) perhaps you should go for an interview at Exeter.

Besides, it seems today's potential is far more worrying for some up north, so please lets pay respect to them and hope and pray there are no casualties.

Sorry for the OT post mods, please can you let this stand for once and hopefully we can get to talking about this interesting period of weather.

Hopefully this up to date radar grab will help, it shows the pressure/current precipitation and latest gusts, courtesy of NW.

Thanks for listening.

gottolovethisweather

[The PIT]

I think the Met Office are handling it well considering they let the cat out of the bag so early just when the low shot south on 50% of the models. Gradually down playing it as each forecast goes out.

Thanks for the PDF John I'm also interested over the possibility of Snow further north from this low.

[Stormyking]

Woohooo cracking lil thunderstorm, 5 big strikes and loud rumbles was a ncie CG in there too!