North West England Regional Discussion Thread

[jpwild]

What's Widneremere looking like for weekend? If I go to the top of Orrest Head, will the fells/hills/mountains be covered in snow? I'm looking for snow shots like that with blu skys, and that would do me perfectly!

[feb1991blizzard]

I think you're forgetting the gradient of pressure though. It's very low, meaning very cold uppers are not a necessity. At first when I looked at it, I thought widespread snow was unlikely, but now I look at it again, it does look likely. And since the wind is coming from the East, the dewpoints will be low.

The problem is going to be getting the Low far enough North, PPN is going to be at a premium for our region as a whole, if we get PPN im convinced of a covering of snow enen at low levels.

[mandi35]

hang on though they was saying the high winds will be back after the 3rd storm set to hit us on thursday night into friday morning and that no where in the uk will miss the high winds now they changing their minds now its snow hmmm seems to m they wanna make their bloody minds up

[iand61]

The problem is going to be getting the Low far enough North, PPN is going to be at a premium for our region as a whole, if we get PPN im convinced of a covering of snow enen at low levels.

Agreed that the majority of our region is probably too far north to be in with a shout of much more than a flurry or at best a slight covering although personally i'd sooner have that outcome than a promise of a white out which ends up as nothing more than icy rain. That said though, the earlier BBC weather forecast showed white as far north as Southern Cumbria and they are normally very reluctant to over cook the chances of snow.

[NW_Blackburn]

Don't know if anybody has seen this video about the possible tracks of the storm from the BBC website about Thursday/Friday's event. Fingers crossed for our region.

http://www.bbc.co.uk...atures/16165125

Edited December 14, 2011 by NW_Blackburn

[Backtrack]

Wind's still too strong for the temperature to fall any further. We're back up to 3.1C now, the wind is still 10-15mph.

Edited December 14, 2011 by Backtrack

[iand61]

hang on though they was saying the high winds will be back after the 3rd storm set to hit us on thursday night into friday morning and that no where in the uk will miss the high winds now they changing their minds now its snow hmmm seems to m they wanna make their bloody minds up

now now Mandi theres a place for Met Office knocking and it's not the North West Regional Thread...........it's called the Atlantic Storm Thread and it's full of folk who are reaching for the Prozac because the threat of Armagedon is now heading for Europe and even the forecast of falling snow is nowhere near set in stone.

[Liam J]

Meto bashing in here I see!

Temp down to 3.7c now with less cloud around at last.

Edited December 14, 2011 by Liam J

[damianslaw]

What's Widneremere looking like for weekend? If I go to the top of Orrest Head, will the fells/hills/mountains be covered in snow? I'm looking for snow shots like that with blu skys, and that would do me perfectly!

Ground above about 400m is coated white at the moment, the snowline should move down to 300m by tomorrow evening and with the chance of some snow showers on friday and the potential snow risk overnight tomorrow then it is quite probable you may even find a dusting or light cover on the top of lowly orrest head at 250m.

Anyhow hope you get some lovely shots of the snowy fells. Orrest Head is a gem of a view, I know it well and it is my one of my favourite viewpoints if not my favourite. Another good viewpoint local to the town is school knott not quite as extensive as orrest head, but the view across the lake to the fells with the town rooftops below is preety special.

[SP1986]

If it doesn't fall any lower then the NAE model is a resounding failure. The NAE model supplies the irish sea coastal model (supplied by the reputable Proudman oceanography centre), and the NAE has been performing VERY poorly at short range recently!

[jpwild]

School Knot? I'll have a look at that if I can on the net, thanks.

Yeah, only been Winderemere once and that was in the summer and at the end of the day, a very hot day, had a walk up to Orrest Head and found it stunning. I would liek to go further into the Lakes, but I don't have a car and come by train so I think I will go deeper into the lakes in the summer - when I know roads wont get closed lol and buses stop running lol.

It's either Winderemere or over to Edale which isn't far from me. Shall see come weekend if either areas have any snow or not.

[Julian]

Frost already formed on the car roof here.

[iand61]

Meto bashing in here I see!

Temp down to 3.7c now with less cloud around at last.

I think that we're all guilty of it at some stage although with me it's more when a forecast hot summers day turns out be a cooler damp one.

Snow is always a difficult one to forecast in a specific area as, in our locality the last couple of days have shown but people constantly taking frustrations out on the Met Office is not fair.

TBH if i lived down south i'd be wishing that storm into Europe as high winds are my least favourite type of extreme weather and on our islands are the only real threat to life.

[feb1991blizzard]

Agreed that the majority of our region is probably too far north to be in with a shout of much more than a flurry or at best a slight covering although personally i'd sooner have that outcome than a promise of a white out which ends up as nothing more than icy rain. That said though, the earlier BBC weather forecast showed white as far north as Southern Cumbria and they are normally very reluctant to over cook the chances of snow.

Im not sure i agree with that last statement, they always seem to white out areas where snow is an outside bet and not just the probable areas, remember the similar scenario exactly a year ago where the low got progged further and further south with each run, they overcooked the Northern extent of it as it ended up tracking into Southern England on Saturday 18th but i guess they undercooked the chaos and Eastward extent of those convective showers off the Irish sea on the friday night!

[mandi35]

ha ha ha iand61 im already on prozac and lots of morphine and nerve damage tablets just imo weather forecasters cannot get it right they predicted rain for me then it turned out to be really bad hailstones for the 3 days sat sun mon im not a lover of high winds but i love cold weather snow in particular

[Liam J]

Clear skies and the temp has risen to 4.2c... Grrrr

Meto still have the cold weather alert level 2 in force with a 60% risk for NW England.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/coldweatheralert/

[iand61]

Im not sure i agree with that last statement, they always seem to white out areas where snow is an outside bet and not just the probable areas, remember the similar scenario exactly a year ago where the low got progged further and further south with each run, they overcooked the Northern extent of it as it ended up tracking into Southern England on Saturday 18th but i guess they undercooked the chaos and Eastward extent of those convective showers off the Irish sea on the friday night!

quite true but our snow as you said was convective showers of the Irish Sea rather than a weather system.

showers are more difficult to predict both in location and intesity and the December 17&18 event was a good example of that.

we had about 6 inches of snow by day break on Saturday yet at work only 7 miles away it was almost double.

[Backtrack]

Clear skies here. Slight increase in wind and the temperature has rocketed up to 3.9C -.-

[SP1986]

Temperature here too has risen

Currently 4.1C from 3.6C but there is cloud moving over - unforecast cloud that it.

Looks like the GFS will be right, whilst the NAE and Meto will be wrong this time around.

[mandi35]

probably the top end of the north west cumbria carlisle will get the dolloping of snow i know i wont here :smilz38:

[karyo]

The 18z gfs has tomorrow's event even further south. Our region is likely to be bone dry!

Then in the early hours of Friday a front crosses the region from the nort, but the uppers are too marginal.

Karyo

Edited December 14, 2011 by karyo

[carl1980]

was 2.0c,shot up to 3.3c and rising.

[iand61]

probably the top end of the north west cumbria carlisle will get the dolloping of snow i know i wont here :smilz38:

I've learned that when it comes to North West snow, expect nothing and you won't be disapointed and that's from someone who lives half way up a mountain.

[Liam J]

Even further south on the GFS 18z, well at least it should be clear and calm with the risk of frost increasing, that is of course if this cloud decides to move away!

Daytime heating is at a minimum now so the temps will be unlikely to respond much through the daytime.

Edited December 14, 2011 by Liam J

[mandi35]

well the past 3 years my dog has had thick snow where i was snowed in for 2 weeks and that was dec 17th its been cold here all day dry all day here too